Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Not easy to give up power, is it?

Prof Ricardo Hausmann is saddened by "Venezuela's unprecedented collapse". He was once Minister of Planning in Venezuela, so was probably a citizen of that country. Why is he sad? Because, the economy has collapsed. "Venezuela is running out of food. Hospitals are overcrowded with sick children while doctors don't have enough medicine or X-ray machines. Electricity isn't guaranteed. About the only thing Venezuela has in abundance is chaos." So bad is the situation that "on 22 July, when the border with Colombia was reopened, 35,000 Venezuelans crossed the narrow bridge between the two countries to buy food and medicines". In 2010, one US dollar was worth about 8 bolivars, today it is worth 8,000 bolivars, and inflation is expected to reach 2,000% next year. Venezuela has the highest oil reserves in the world and from 1950 to 1980 it was the strongest economy in South America due to enormous public spending, based on foreign debt. The price of oil fell in the 1980s causing the economy to contract and inflation to rise to 84%. There was public rioting in Caracas in 1989. Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998 and in 2000 oil prices soared, fell in 2004, but rose again to a peak in 2011. Like in the 1960s-70s, Chavez used the oil wealth to start social programs for the poor, while berating the rich as enemies and ranting against an imagined US conspiracy to take over Venezuelan oil. Chavez nationalized the oil industry, resulting in a fall in output by 1 million barrels per day. When prices fell in 2014 the economy collapsed. It needs a price of over $120 a barrel just to break even. Nicolas Maduro became president in 2013, when Chavez died. The opposition won a two-thirds majority in parliament in 2015, since when they have been calling for Maduro to resign. There have been violent clashes between police and protesters for months and over 100 have died. Maduro called for a vote to elect a new parliament but, it now seems, that there was massive cheating. Maduro has his own supporters who see protesters as agents of the elite wanting to take away social schemes started by Chavez. Once people have something they are extremely reluctant to give it up, as Donald Trump is discovering in his efforts to get rid of Obamacare. Having used violence against protesters Maduro is probably afraid that he will be prosecuted and jailed if he loses power, so he uses more violence to cling on. Perhaps, Prime Minister Modi should remember not to reach a point of no return as he seeks to consolidate his power by ranting against corruption, while announcing long lists of social programs for the poor. It can be very hard to give up power. Ask Maduro.

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