Thursday, August 10, 2017

War is bad, but will it lead to freedom?

The US is a superpower, with an economy worth $18.46 trillion, while North Korea is an impoverished nation, with an economy worth $28.50 billion, sandwiched between China and South Korea, bordering the Sea of Japan. And yet both are making bloodcurdling threats against each other. It would be comical, like a 2 year old child taking on a sumo wrestler, except that N Korea has nuclear weapons and has developed ballistic missiles capable of reaching Guam. The Korean peninsula has been divided by a Demilitarized Zone, or DMZ, since the Korea war in 1950. In 1950 both China and the Soviet Union were impoverished communist states. The Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991 and the Russia that has emerged is not communist and China, although still ruled by the Communist Party, embraced capitalism during economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978. North Korea has been left behind in a time warp. Any reform would mean an end of the regime, but, what is more important is that both China and Russia, especially China, are happy with a buffer between their borders and South Korea, with US troops and missiles. The people of N Korea are pawns in this great game, living with hunger and deprivation and probably unaware of the technological revolution taking place in the rest of the world. Kim Jong Un became president of N Korea at the age of about 28 years, when his father died, and has consolidated his power through a systematic elimination of anyone who displeased him, including members of his own family. He has seen the ends of Saddam Hussein and Col Gaddafi, who had no nuclear weapons, so has devoted his time in power in developing nuclear weapons and missiles capable of delivering them. He knows that even if he cannot reach the US, if he is capable of taking out Seoul, Tokyo and Guam with nuclear strikes, the West will not attack him lightly, as they did Iraq and Libya. Thousands of people rallied in Pyongyang in support of the regime. One banner read, "Let's become bullets and bombs devotedly defending respected Supreme Leader Comrade Kim Jong Un." A state-run newspaper in China advised the government to stop the US if it attacks first, in an attempt to overthrow the Kim regime, but to stay neutral if N Korea attacks first. Does it mean that if N Korea is deemed to be the aggressor China will be content to let US forces right up to its border? Trump's biggest enemies are at home. Politicians, Democrats and Republicans, are hostile to him because he promised to "drain the swamp" in Washington, and the swamp naturally does not want to be drained. Who gains from a fight between the US, N Korea and China and between Trump and the Congress? Russia, which has seen more sanctions inflicted on it. And India, if China gets involved. 

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