Tuesday, August 08, 2017

They can't say it, but is it all a ponzi scheme?

VA Nageswaran disputed Alan Greenspan's statement,"We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices." "Stock markets can ratchet up expectations of future cash flows from owning the stock and thus rationalize any stock price. In theory there is no ceiling on optimism on future earnings.," wrote Nageswaran. "On the other hand, bond prices reflect the present value of future coupons and the redemption value of the bond." Bond prices are high because markets expect inflation to remain low, which means they expect growth to remain subdued well into the future. Which is why interest rates are at such low levels. Nageswaran blames the International Monetary Fund for advising the Federal Reserve of the US and the European Central Bank to continue with loose monetary policy. "The IMF is part of the problem, as are major central banks, with respect to its embrace of monetary policy snake oil that delivers no growth but delivers on market instability and inequality." MA El-Erian also disagreed with the World Economic Outlook of the IMF which predicts low growth till 2022, after a little upward bump in 2017. El-Erian thinks that "the medium-term baseline for continued low growth would worsen the risks that the IMF correctly identifies". Future growth depends on government policies. "But if policymaking continues to lag, the new normal will be remembered as the frustrating prelude to a period of unsettling financial instability, recessionary pressures, and even greater inequality and more damaging anger politics." Alex Brazier, a director of the Bank of England recently warned of rising household debts. Unsecured personal debts in the UK have reached an eye-watering level of 198 billion pounds. People are buying bigger cars on debt, on condition that they just have to return the cars after 4 years if they cannot pay their loans. That puts lenders are great risk. Europe is furious with US Congress for imposing new sanctions on Russia, just to spite Donald Trump. If the US imposes sanctions on EU companies the EU may impose tit-for-tat sanctions on US businesses. Michael Schuman has doubts about the growth potential of China because of the government's interference in markets and business. Foreign investors will be wary of investing in China if they feel that the government will suddenly change rules of business. The Chinese government has forced Dalian Wanda to sell of 91% of its theme parks to a rival to reduce foreign debt, wrote K Vaswani. In its efforts to find new markets for its companies China is forcing huge debts on other countries in its Belt and Road project. The IMF is predicting a growth rate of 5% for emerging economies but that may drown in debts to China. Globalization is looks increasingly like a giant ponzi scheme.

No comments: