Friday, August 11, 2017

Anniversary of 2007, should we celebrate?

"On 9 Aug 2007, the European Central Bank flooded its money markets with billions of euros of emergency cash to prevent a seizure in the European banking system after France's BNP Paribas became the latest to shut down investment funds hobbled by a collapse of US mortgage and asset- backed bond markets," wrote R Carvalho. "Serial bank collapses in Britain, the US. Germany and elsewhere were to follow over the following 18 months." Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008 and 'The Great Recession' followed. So, how is the health of the global economy on its tenth anniversary? Global trade, as a percentage of GDP, has grown, but not to the pre-crisis peak. Equities are 22% above levels of 10 years ago, because of near zero interest rate, and yields of benchmark 10 year government bonds are half what they were, as central banks have bought bonds to release more funds into the banking system, known as quantitative easing. Those who invested in stocks just before the crisis saw a fall in the value of their investments by 47%, but the S&P 500 has given annual returns of 7.8% since then, so that they have still gained. Inflation has remained low, which is another reason for low interest rates, real wage growth of labor has remained flat, even as corporate and financial profits have boomed, giving rise to justifiable anger. Total global debt has ballooned by 327% to $217 trillion. Total GDP of the world is around $80 trillion and is expected to reach $90 trillion by 2020. So, total debt is 2.5 times the global GDP. Banks which had large exposure to the US mortgage market have lost their positions in terms of the size of their assets, while Chinese banks have taken over. Banks did not realize how vulnerable they were. US banks have recovered and are again too large to fail. What if bond yields start to rise in developed economies? Should that happen traders fear that emerging market bonds, and currencies, will slump. Stock markets in emerging economies are reminiscent of 2007. There is "Still too much risk in the financial system", wrote Mohd El-Erian. Although, central banks have strengthened financial systems so that "risks posed by the banking system have been reduced markedly, those assumed by financial players that aren't banks have come roaring back". Which means financial companies are just gaming the system. The central banks know this but are afraid of turning off the taps in case markets collapse. Reforms have to come from governments but politicians are reluctant to act because they do not want to take the blame. Seems that we should prepare for another shock.

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