Tuesday, June 27, 2017

We need optimism, the alternatives are terrifying.

"In 50 years, I predict that the world economy is likely (though not guaranteed) to be thriving, with global GDP growing by as much as 20% per year, and income and consumption doubling every four years or so," wrote Prof K Basu. From 1500 to 1820 the world economy was growing at just 0.32% "with large sections of the world experiencing no growth at all". The Industrial Revolution lifted "average annual global growth to 2.25% from 1820 to 2003". Why the optimism? "Today, it is the Digital Revolution that promises to lift growth to new heights.Indeed, we are in the midst of dramatic technological breakthroughs, with advances in digital technology connecting all corners of the world." Digital technology is also taking away every shred of privacy and freedom from individuals as it lays us bare to autocratic despots, wrote Chinmayi Arun. Vivek Wadhwa predicted,"Our future of unlimited growth -- and joblessness." Robots will take over all the jobs in manufacturing, driving, nursing and medicine while drones will do all the delivery work. One Carl Bass said, "The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment." Automation will make everything extremely cheap. But not free. Industrialists will still want to recover costs of manufacturing robots, paying for raw materials and buying land to set up factories. If there are no jobs how will people buy even the cheapest of goods? "Through improved education and training, as well as more effective redistribution, we can facilitate more creative work -- from art to scientific research -- which machines will not be able to do in the foreseeable future," wrote Basu. But, how? Is it possible for billions of humans to be trained to be engineers of Artificial Intelligence or to be able to write programs for robots that they will want? Starting at 8,000 BC the world population reached 1 billion by 1800, but by 2050 it will reach about 10 billion. That is a huge number of people with no jobs. So who is going to feed, clothe, educate and treat them when they are ill. We may have robot doctors but medicines will still need to be manufactured. Prof Tyler Cowen wrote that there can be no economic miracle, citing the example of Denmark which has been growing at an average of under 2%, with no recession. An economic history of the world, compiled by Angus Maddison shows that economic growth in the West has been faster for centuries, wrote M Chakravarty. Perhaps, because the West has been adept and making instruments of war with which to subjugate other nations and loot their resources. Digital technology will also be used for war. It only takes time.

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