Monday, June 12, 2017

BJP is just alt-Congress, that's all.

"We are still awaiting a business that defines the 2010s," wrote R Sukumar. In the previous two decades the economy grew in the middle years and then cooled towards the end, but no such bump occurred in this decade. "The 2010s have been different in another way as well. Each of the two preceding decades saw an industry, maybe two, perhaps even three, emerge and grow. Many of these were relatively new industries that were around at the beginning of the decade but really came into their own during it." In the 1990s IT services and pharmaceuticals took off and companies, such as Infosys, TCS, Cipla an Dr Reddy's became huge. Both sectors are under stress today. IT companies are actually losing jobs and profits of pharmaceuticals are under pressure because of greater competition in the generics market in the US. In the 2000s it was the turn of telecom and private banking. Indian telecom companies are unable to cope with their debt because earnings have dropped sharply, due to a sudden increase in competition from a new entrant, and massive payments for license and spectrum, due to government greed. Banking is under pressure from new technology companies, such as Paytm.  Infrastructure companies also did well in the 2000s but are now laden with debt. Highway construction is the only sector doing well, purely due to government spending. This decade has not seen any new industry capable of creating millions of jobs. There is E-commerce but most of those companies are running heavy losses. Why, when the World Bank is projecting economic growth at 7.2% this year, which will make it the fastest growing economy in the world. If the economy is growing so fast then people should have more money to spend, and prices should be rising. But it is exactly the opposite with retail inflation falling to a record low of 2.18% in May. That is apparently due to falling food prices causing losses to farmers who are unable to repay their debts. Industrial production grew at 3.1% in April, mainly due to change in the base year. As usual, there are agonised screams for a reduction in policy rates. On the one hand politicians are crowing about being the fastest growing economy and on the other they abuse the RBI for not reducing rates, so as to stimulate growth. Sounds familiar? This is exactly what the Congress was doing. Win elections with handouts which increase debt burden and then increase taxes to balance books and prevent credit rating from dropping to junk status. High taxes make us poor. Indians cannot afford to fly because taxes are so high, which means airlines cannot grow. Apparently GST will solve all problems. Will it? It is so complicated because it is designed to increase tax collections, not to serve Indian consumers. The Indian government is a musical chair game. Parties may change, we remain poor as always.

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