Friday, June 23, 2017

How do you measure the fear of suffering?

"The sharp fall in inflation in recent years has pulled down the growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP)," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. Nominal GDP is measured in current prices while 'real GDP' measures growth with reference to a base year by eliminating rise in prices, or inflation. Thus, nominal GDP is what we see and feel as we shop while the real GDP is a calculated figure, which is irrelevant to most people. Nominal GDP in 2016-17 was Rs 152.51 trillion, while the real GDP was lower at Rs 121.65 trillion. Last year the real GDP was growing at 5% and not 7.1%, as claimed by politicians. "Employees who are used to large increases in nominal pay during episodes of high inflation feel cheated with the more modest pay hikes we see in these years of low inflation." Farmers are incensed at the fall in prices of their produce. "People think in nominal rather than real price terms. Price changes matter." Farmers want higher prices for their produce but low prices are good for consumers and low inflation is useful for politicians to bully the RBI for lower policy rates. Apparently, Irving Fisher coined the term "money illusion". "Indian workers, companies, investors, savers are so used to high inflation that lower nominal numbers because of the drop in inflation is a fact that they have psychologically not adjusted to." In short, people feel poorer because prices are not rising. So, are the farmers being irrational for demanding higher prices for their produce? Well reasoned articles explain why farmers have been hurt by the fall in food prices. Everything from a change from growing cereals to horticulture, imports of cheap produce from abroad, delay in paying farmers, to demonetization have been advanced to explain the fall in prices. But, most people tend to ignore the fact that input costs are rising. Prices of fertilizers and pesticides have risen because we import 60% of 'technicals' from China. So, our inflation calculations are probably based on the finished product, without accounting for the inputs. The Goods and Services Tax is set to impose a 12% tax on fertilizers, 12% tax on tractors and 18% tax on crop protection products, which means pesticides. There will be no tax on seeds. And so we come to loan waivers which are generating a lot of heat. Loan waivers mainly help rich farmers with big landholdings but not marginal farmers, who generally borrow from local moneylenders. Loan waivers will increase fiscal deficit of states which is reflected in the difference in yields between bonds issued by the states and the center. This may affect India's sovereign rating. However, Pronab Sen argues that agricultural loans are insured against defaults, farmers usually repay their loans and people should not be allowed to starve. Money maybe an illusion but suffering is real. There is no economic measure for the fear of suffering.

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