Wednesday, June 14, 2017

If the economy is growing why are the dollar and inflation falling?

Prof Jim O'Neill analysed the changes in the value of the dollar since Donald Trump became president. "After soaring in the wake of Trump's victory, the dollar's value began to slide in April." Calculating the value of a currency against others is difficult but it is clear that "markets have built in a risk premium for the dollar, to account for the uncertainties that Trump's presidency has introduced." One way of calculating the exchange rate of a currency is to compare the amount required to buy a basket of goods as compared to other currencies. O'Neill has developed his own method of calculating exchange rate of currencies, called Dynamic Real Exchange Rate, or GSDEER, according to which the dollar is overvalued by 6-7%. On the other hand, if he uses an adjusted GSDEER then the dollar is undervalued by 6%. So much for expert calculations. The US economy is dependent on personal consumption at 70% of GDP. The US should spend less and save more. "The good way is for the US to import less and export more, and to increase its domestic savings and investment. The bad way - particularly for American consumers - is for the US to pick fights and retreat from the world." Why? The US economy has been growing for "96 straight months" and the unemployment rate is down to 4.3%, but, instead of rising, inflation has been falling for 3 months. It was 1.7% in April, core inflation was at 1.5%. One reason maybe that there is hidden unemployment due to an increase in part time work, which is pushing wages down. Another reason is the import of cheap goods manufactured in countries where labor is cheap, so that prices of goods have risen by 0.3% in the last year. Cheap services cannot be imported, so prices increased by 2.4% in the service sector. Surely, a border adjustment tax, which is a tax on imports, is the answer. Trump had proposed a 45% border tax on Chinese goods but was scared off by vested interests. A tax on imports would increase inflation to the desired level, reduce consumption and increase revenue growth, exactly what the professor desired. China threatened a trade war against the US, but with an annual trade surplus of around $350 with the US it would be a contest between a heavyweight and a flyweight. Prof Keyu Jin proclaims that China creates jobs in the US by controlling global supply chains, but forgets to say how many jobs it destroys. Prof Zhang Jun is alarmed by the state of China's financial sector. Credit from the shadow banking sector has risen to 65trillion Yuan and interbank assets have risen to 21.47 trillion Yuan. Sounds like the good old Credit Default Swap. Professors seem very good at analysing problems but shy away from solutions. Wonder why?

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