Monday, January 30, 2017

Why the rage when we know what to expect?

Ever since Donald Trump was elected president experts have been trying to predict what policies he is going to follow. He is being portrayed as an unpredictable lunatic given to passing Executive Orders on a whim. There are leaks from inside the White House about how he gets angry at negative coverage in the media and how he watches television because he is easily bored. There is a long article about how he is vengeful and is taking decisions based on his "intuitions, grudges, impulses, and obsessions". Studies apparently show that politicians in the west tend to keep their campaign promises. Trump is doing exactly what he promised in numerous speeches, during the campaign, and was elected on the basis of those promises. So why the outcry? There is even talk of restricting his access to the nuclear button. What do they intend to put in place, a debate in Congress? His cabinet members disagree with his policies. So is his term going to be full of arbitrary decisions and fights with cabinet members? An article by Professor WPS Sidhu explores 5 scenarios that may unfold during Trump's first term in office. The first is called Concert Redux where the US makes loose alliances with other powers, as happened in Europe in early 19th century. This will be prone to break up. The second is a world divided by regional powers into zones of influence. In Asia there could be competition between India and China, with India losing out. The third is a Fortress America scenario, which happened before and after World War I, leading to World War II. Ruchir Sharma drew a parallel with protectionism in the US from 1914, which led to the Great Depression and then to World War II. The fourth scenario is a coalition of western countries to contain Russia and China. That would be foolish because both countries have strongmen in power, who are unlikely to want to be contained. Russia is economically too weak to mount any serious challenge to US hegemony but China is an aggressive nation, intent on subjugating its neighbors. China has been enslaving nations in Asia and Africa by giving them huge loans and then forcing them to surrender to its demands when they cannot repay. The fifth and last scenario is probably the most likely, writes Sidhu, in which Trump will take "improvisational, seat-of-the-pants" ad hoc decisions which will be confusing for everybody. So far Trump has not taken any decision that he did not promise during the campaign so why this fear of him becoming ad hoc? Not just the US, countries in Europe may also elect leaders from outside mainstream parties. Therein lies the terror. Since the War a cozy club of politicians and wealthy elite have ruled the world to their own advantage. They are afraid that this may disappear. Fear leads to rage. That is what we are seeing. It will be fun.

1 comment:

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