Thursday, January 26, 2017

It should be known as the Fiscal Irresponsibility Committee.

The government must address some moral imperatives in the coming budget, writes Rajrishi Singhal. India has signed up to the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, two of which are "Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and foster innovation," and "Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all." To build great infrastructure and industries to provide jobs with decent wages will cost a lot of money and that can only come from high rates of economic growth. How to stimulate growth? "There are two ways to revive growth: either through consumption or through investment," writes Singhal. The government could try to increase consumption by reducing taxes but credit rating agencies would take a jaundiced view of rising fiscal deficit. India's credit rating is just above junk status, though stable in outlook. In the absence of consumption private sector will not invest so the government should increase capital expenditure. A recent survey found that Indian employers are most pessimistic about the effect of digitisation on employment. A World Bank report predicts that India will lose 69% of jobs due to automation and artificial intelligence. The report also suggests that China's one child policy improved nutrition of children, while 38.7% of children in India are stunted, which means that they will be unlikely to attain the desired level of education. Ajit Ranade suggests that tenant farmers should be given loans by the government, even though they have no assets. Apparently, such a scheme already exists in Andhra Pradesh. This is totally absurd because Ranade should know that this loan will never be repaid and what he is suggesting is really another handout. The Congress is promising a loan waiver in UP worth Rs 490 billion while the Akali Dal is promising a waiver of Rs 570 billion for its farmers. Punjab is already bankrupt. The budget for MGNREGA was Rs 385 billion this fiscal, the total spending since it was started must be around Rs 4 trillion. What is alarming is that the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Committee has recommended that the government may exceed the fiscal deficit target of 3% this year. This is because the debt to GDP ratio is lower than before. When the government keeps borrowing in excess of 20% of its expenditure what magic keeps its debt ratio so low. It is inflation. Politicians force the Reserve Bank to lower interest rate. This reduces the rate of interest it has to pay on its borrowing and the resulting high inflation reduces the debt:GDP ratio. We get less interest on our savings, spend more on essentials and transfer our money to the government. Monika Halan cautions against a high fiscal deficit. There is only one answer. Reduce population, give handouts to those with no children. Will they do it? No. Increase the vote bank, to hell with the nation.

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