Sunday, May 15, 2016

Societies are naturally left handed.

The US has a total of 538 electoral college votes and a majority of 270 is required to be elected president. Most states have a winner take all system so winning a state by even one vote gets a candidate all the electoral college votes of that state. In the last six general elections, from 1992 to 2012, 19 states (and Washington DC) have always voted Democrat and 13 have always voted Republican. The states that vote Democrat have more electoral college votes because they are more highly populated so winning those 19 states will give 242 votes to Hillary Clinton, presuming that she is the candidate against Donald Trump. If she takes Florida with 29 votes she reaches 271 and wins. So Trump could lose by winning 30 states out of 50. Trouble for Trump is that Clinton is likely to get an overwhelming share of minority votes, partly because of Trump's proposal to build a wall along the border with Mexico. Trump has promised to ban all Muslims from entering the US. Recently Clinton's lead against Bernie Sanders among nonwhite voters has come down. Sanders is also a Democrat so Clinton may hope to take most of the nonwhite votes against Trump, especially after his incendiary comments. Maybe not. If blacks see illegal immigrants from Mexico taking away their jobs they may vote for Trump. If there is one big terrorist attack in the US or in Europe after the party conventions in July Trump will waltz into the White House. Journalists in the US are heavily biased towards Democrats, about 4:1. Facebook is investigating claims that it is biased against conservative stories. If there is a left wing bias in rich countries in poorer countries it is enormous. In Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended, awaiting an impeachment trial. She has been charged with winning re-election in 2014 by manipulating government accounts, to hide the growing deficit. Her party is accused of corruption, especially in the state oil company Petrobras. However, most of those opposing her in Congress are also accused of serious crimes. So why the anger against Rousseff? Because of a severe recession. The economy contracted by 3.8% in 2015, mainly because of the collapse in commodity prices globally. A combination of unemployment at 9% and inflation at 10.7% is hurting the poor who feel that it is because the elite is stealing everything. However, Rousseff still has supporters who say that social programs reduced poverty and inequality. In neighboring Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has declared a state of emergency as the economy has collapsed completely. Here too the social handouts of Hugo Chavez were very popular. The people are angry now but once the economy improves they will once again vote for the party promising handouts. Just like people in India voted for the Congress after Vajpayee improved the economy and threw them out when the economy tanked. Mr Modi should watch out. If he does improve the economy, as he wants to do, the Congress will be lurking. That is why poor countries stay poor.

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