Monday, May 23, 2016

It is a marathon, a good monsoon will help.

As we come to the second anniversary of the Modi government what are its achievements? Depends on who you ask. A professor from JNU (where else?) sees the glass as almost empty. " While the government may have done well on the deficit front, partially helped by the collapse in petroleum prices, its track record in reviving the economy is still shrouded in mystery, despite claims of improvement by the Central Statistical Office based on the new national accounts series," he writes. Exports are down, manufacturing is down, bank lending is down, private investment is down but retail inflation is still high. So what does the learned professor recommend to remedy the dire situation? Increase handouts to farmers. Perhaps, the professor should read about Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez won 3 terms with handouts. Now there is nothing to hand out. Or about Brazil where the President has just been suspended but the government's program of targeted subsidies, called the Bolsa Familia has won praise for lifting millions out of poverty. On the other hand, if you read the President of the BJP, the economy is projected to grow at 7.8% and the future is rosy because of all the fantastic things the government has done. As usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle. The government has indeed undertaken major reforms, but important ones are still outstanding, and it needs to improve implementation. The government has signed a formal agreement with the Reserve Bank to set monetary policy, it is committed to bringing down the fiscal deficit and it has set up an Expenditure Reforms Commission to take a look on how the government spends our money. Politicians in India use public funds as personal wealth, to be used as bribes, to win elections. Which is why retail inflation never seems to be permanently under control. The Modi government has recognised that dishing out subsidies will not solve the problem of poverty. It has embarked on programs of empowerment where citizens are treated as partners, rather than beggars, to have coins and chapatis thrown at them. So, is it time for celebrations? Definitely not. The biggest problem for India is its huge population, crammed into a relatively small land area. The greatest challenge for the government will be to provide jobs for the hundreds of millions of young people joining the work force every year. Manufacturing is the only solution for creating jobs but you need land to set up factories. You also need land for agriculture because people need food. And there has to be a market for what we make. Reserve Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan is right to warn of expecting very high growth rates. A start has been made. We pray that mother nature helps with a good monsoon. 

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