If central banks are uncertain, what will they do?

A Professor of Economics, who served as the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and was on the Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets interest rates in the US, writes that there are 4 ways to think about the US economy. One group thinks that monetary policy by the central bank is of little importance as long as inflation stays low and stable. The second group thinks that the central bank should act proactively to stop inflation from rising because interest rates take time to be effective. The third group thinks that low interest rates just create bubbles and increase borrowing to dangerous levels. The fourth group thinks that inflation is still too low in the US and the Federal Reserve should provide additional stimulus, along with fiscal stimulus by the government. The inflation rate in the US is 1.1%. Every group is partially right so what is the Federal Reserve going to do? No wonder Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, is uncertain. She used the word " uncertainty " 10 times in a speech last month. Britain will vote in a referendum on whether to stay in the EU on 23 June. Germany is running a current account surplus of 8% but is imposing austerity on the rest of the Eurozone. The US economy is probably not as strong as made out to be. The Eurozone has just approved another loan for Greece but has only postponed debt repayment to 2018. The International Monetary Fund wanted a debt write off but swallowed its pride and joined the deal. Another crisis in the Eurozone may still happen. Despite introducing a negative interest rate in January in the hope of generating inflation in Japan the yen has been strengthening which keeps prices depressed and prolongs deflation. The central bank of Japan could buy dollars from the market to try and devalue the yen but that may start a currency war. The G7 is meeting in Japan as of now and will probably warn Japan not to try to depreciate its currency. Japan is not the only country with a negative interest rate. The trouble is that these methods have never been tried before so central banks have no idea as to what to expect. By making it expensive to save money central banks hope that people will spend more, boosting demand, and banks will lend more, boosting investment and thus creating jobs. But people do not always behave in predictable fashion so there must be some risks that no one can predict. India is naturally worried. While other nations and the Eurozone are trying to devalue their currencies and generate inflation we cannot afford that luxury because our retail inflation is already high. Switzerland is holding a referendum next month on whether to give everyone a basic income of $1500 whether they work or not. Is this one form of 'helicopter money' that economists are talking about? Money flying on the wind, now that is real uncertainty.