Thursday, May 12, 2016

Robot owners and circus clowns, is that the future?

We Indians are aware of all the problems besetting our country. Poverty, malnutrition, farmer suicides, environmental degradation and rising inequality are some of the most pressing problems. The problems have continued for 68 years because politicians refuse to face the truth in case they lose subsequent elections. As Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of EU, once said," We all know what to do, we just don't know how to get re-elected after we've done it." It is much easier to throw handouts and pretend moral outrage if someone objects to charity on taxpayer money. In 1991 India came close to defaulting on our loans and the Reserve Bank had to sell gold for the country to survive.This led to economic reforms by the then Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao which propelled the country towards higher growth. Economic reforms are blamed by some for the rising inequality and therein lies the problem. Is it morally superior for everyone to be equally poor or should everyone have the opportunity to become rich through clever ideas, hard work and the ability to take risks. It is unacceptable that there are 2,083 people in India who possess in excess of $50 million while there are hundreds of millions who live on $2 a day. So what can the government do? There is a limit to how many people the government can employ because it would not be able to pay salaries, perks and pensions of countless millions. All it can do is to provide good education, training in skills and the economic conditions to create rewarding jobs. Problem is that you cannot force people to take advantage of opportunities and the end result may increase inequality. Even in the US some 32 million adults are unable to read. All this means " that there is no silver bullet for the government to guarantee full employment and solve structural inequality. The government can do something - but it remains to be seen exactly what, and how much." Things might be about to get much worse. As artificial intelligence improves there maybe a " great decoupling ", in which " advances in productivity, mainly driven by the development of digital technology, and the resulting economic growth, no longer cause employment and workers' incomes to rise ". As robots take over jobs presently done by humans, in driving, in factories and even white collar work, such as accounting, there will be need for fewer humans. In some countries populations are declining but in India it is still increasing. Humans will have to move into services such as entertainment, such as ballet dancing and classical music. But everyone does not have the physique for ballet and some people are tone deaf. Should the government open dancing schools? Maybe juggling as well.

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