Sunday, April 10, 2016

Maybe a dose of 'voodoo economics' is the right medicine.

The Sixth Economic Census shows that the growth in the economy from 2005 to 2013, during the reign of Dr Manmohan Singh, with a D Phil in Economics from Oxford University, did not create regular jobs. In fact, 5 million jobs were actually lost between 2004 and 2010. The share of jobs in non-agricultural establishments fell from 89.18% in 2005 to 82.57% in 2013, which is very bad because a proven way to reduce poverty is to move people out of agriculture into other long term employment. In 2005, 19.54% of rural people were employed in agriculture which increased to 31.01% in 2013 while employment in non-agricultural establishments in rural areas fell from 80.46% to 68.99%. Countries which have reduced poverty have done so by encouraging big enterprises, with high productivity and innovation. In India most enterprises employ less than 5 people. In 1990, 93.41% of establishments had less than 5 workers, accounting for 54.45% of total number of workers. After 23 years the number of establishments employing less than 5 workers has risen to 95.5%, employing 69.52%. Micro and small enterprises provide 84% of employment in manufacturing in India, while in Malaysia it is 27.5% and 24.8% in China. No wonder then that China beats India on every parameter from infrastructure to Human Development Index to medals tally at the Olympics. A lot of the growth that occurred was in the construction sector, which employs mainly daily-wage laborers, and was based on black money generated from a plethora of scams. A combination of very high real estate prices with rising circle rates, which is the market price estimated by the government, has resulted in a slowdown in this industry. In India politicians are always looking to increase taxes to pay for handouts, to win elections. In the US, Ronald Reagan's policy of lower taxes with tighter government spending was derided as 'voodoo economics' but resulted in creation of 20 million jobs and a growth rate of 3.5% of GDP. Reagan inherited a decade of stagflation, that is slow growth with high inflation, but did much better than Obama has done. Median household income shot up 10% under Reagan but has remained flat under Obama and national debt was 53% of GDP while it has grown to 102.7% of GDP under Obama. Reagan had a strong faith in the constitution of the US, which would have made his policies highly moralistic. Our politicians are only interested in self enrichment and continue with failed policies which are keeping the country poor. Ted Cruz, who is campaigning to be the Republican candidate for president, proposes a flat tax of 10% and a reduction in the powers of the Inland Revenue Service. Here the extortion of taxes is such that the tax department has had to refund an excess of Rs 1.17 trillion. Policies to help the poor only increase poverty. The US teaches how to get rich. Will they learn?

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