Sunday, April 24, 2016

Is Xi Jinping the new Mao?

A complete disintegration of China would be great for India but, with a large number of nuclear weapons and missiles, it could cause enormous destruction, both within and outside the country. President Xi Jinping was born in 1953 and lived through the Great Famine that killed up to 45 million people. This was followed by Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution in which elders and party leaders were humiliated and beaten by Red Guards. President Liu Shaoqi was beaten and imprisoned. He died in prison in 1969. Since he became president in 2013 Xi Jinping has been accumulating power by purging top officials on corruption charges. Recently he has been named a 'Core' leader, a title previously enjoyed only by Mao and Deng Xiaoping, who crushed the peaceful protests at Tiananmen Square in 1989. A few days back Xi was named Commander in Chief of the armed forces and was seen addressing officers at army headquarters in an army uniform. So, does Xi Jinping see himself as today's Mao Zedong? It is important because even though China was very weak under Mao it invaded Tibet in 1950 and is occupying large tracts of land after its invasion of India in 1962. Under Xi China claims the entire South China Sea as its territory and has built artificial islands on reefs. In January it landed civilian planes on one such reef and a military plane landed on the same reef this month. Its megalomania knows no bounds. China is planning to build 20 floating nuclear power plants on the South China Sea to supply power to the reefs and for exploration for minerals. Obviously, it feels that it has a right to do whatever it pleases and if neighboring countries are harmed then tough luck. So where is China's power coming from? From its economy. Decades of double digit growth has propelled China to become the second largest economy after the US which is why it is able to spend so much on its armed forces. Economic growth was built on exports which are falling because of the fall in global growth following the crisis in 2008. The economy is slowing down rapidly so the government will have to stimulate the economy. But how? China's debt is 248.7% of GDP. Following 2008 the private sector non-financial debt has risen by $6.5 billion per day. Property prices are increasing again, giving rise to the fear of a bubble. Chinese banks are sitting on huge non-performing assets and cannot raise money from the market because their shares are trading at below book value. Growth is being maintained by debt, driven by the real estate sector. Overcapacity and excessive debt are leading to deflation so some stimulus is needed by raising money through government bonds instead of through bank credits. We do not know whether Xi Jinping is like Mao Zedong or Kim Jong Un. The only hope for peace is if the economy collapses totally. We can only hope.

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