Thursday, April 07, 2016

Local solutions cannot improve global weakness.

Managing Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde thinks that there are political dangers to the global economy. She sees " weak growth, no new jobs, no high inflation, still high debt - all those things that should be low and are still high ". " What we fear is this sort of very new mediocre," she said. Countries need to carry out " structural reforms, fiscal stimulus and monetary policy ". Politicians are reluctant to carry out structural reforms, which maybe painful, and fiscal stimulus may lead to increasing deficit, which is seen as irresponsible, so the entire weight has fallen on monetary policy, which has seen negative interest rates in Japan, Eurozone, Denmark and Switzerland and quantitative easing in the US, the UK, Eurozone and Japan. With virtually no interest to pay average household credit card debt in the US has reached, $7,800, the highest since the recession of 2008. Easy borrowing means that the global real estate market will see investments of over $1 trillion this year. Low interest rates help only those who are credit worthy, which means the rich, while the steep rise in real estate prices means that the poor are unable to buy assets and have to pay increased rent. Which is why Lagarde said that the " cards are stacked against the common man - and woman - in favor of elites ". The US unemployment rate is down to 5% so why is the Federal Reserve holding back from raising rates? Because the global economy, especially that of China, is weak, a large number of people in the US are long term unemployed and wages are stagnant, while stock prices are near all time high and corporate profits are soaring. The global debt has reached over $200 trillion, which is 3 times the size of the entire global economy. China's debt has gone up from $10 trillion to $30 trillion but experts believe that there is no danger of a meltdown like 2008. Trouble is if banks in China and emerging markets have to clean up their books lending will fall, growth will slow down, commodity prices will fall further and we will be in another recession. When Tata announced its intention to sell its loss making business in Britain it sent shock waves around the country with the fear of losing 40,000 jobs. The Business Secretary rushed over to hold talks with the Tata Chairman in Mumbai. Why such panic? Because poor children in Britain are dependent on free food they get in schools and have to starve when schools are closed, during vacations. Why is Tata making such losses in Britain? Because China is dumping steel on other countries at very low prices because there is less demand in its slowing economy. The EU wanted to impose an anti-dumping duty of 66% but David Cameron blocked it because he thought he could increase trade with China. It is so bad that a right wing newspaper is accusing Margaret Thatcher of being responsible. Politicians can focus only on their country, so nothing improves. Unless there is a crisis. 

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