Friday, December 11, 2015

Should promises not be made expensive?

Bihar has always been the bottom state in India in development, education and poverty. But it is very high in fertility and in the rate of violent crimes, second only to UP on both counts. Unless these states are brought up to the standards of the front runners, such as Haryana and Maharashtra we will have to see more shameful headlines about having the highest infant mortality in the world. Mr Nitish Kumar who has been Chief Minister since 2005, in alliance with the BJP, has a reputation for development. He was reelected last month, but this time as junior partner to Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD. His victory was partly due to votes based on caste and religion and partly on the promises of spending Rs 2.7 trillion on free electricity connections for all, unemployment benefit of Rs 1000 per month, new roads, water for every household and a toilet in every house. Perhaps Mr Kumar's victory was possible because women outnumbered men, because of promises of jobs for women and a ban on all forms of alcoholic drinks. He will lose Rs 40 billion in taxes on alcohol. Nepal, where alcohol is freely available, should sort out its problems with its new constitution quickly because it stands to make serious profits from smuggling. Politicians, police and civil servants will succumb to huge bribes from criminals. Illegal hooch will kill people. It will be interesting to see how Mr Kumar will keep control. It will make Bihar less attractive for investments. Since 1980 Bihar has been the poorest state in India by GDP, as well as by per capita income. Investments tend to go where there is good infrastructure and a pool of educated workers to pick from. That is why Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat attract investments, even though Gujarat is a dry state. No investor will go to a state where his children are in danger of being kidnapped, his wife raped or his fancy car taken away by force by local goons, protected by politicians. That is where good governance is so important. How much blood money Mr Kumar will have to pay his new partners for his victory remains to be seen but the immediate problem will be how he will pay for all the extravagant promises he has made. His friend Mr Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi also made many extravagant promises which he cannot fulfill, except for free water and cheap electricity for the poor. Delhi is a dirtiest capital city in the world, with broken roads and frequent power blackouts, while Mr Kejriwal spends his time in histrionics and insulting the Prime Minister in crude language. Promises are free and prohibition has failed in every country where it was introduced. Mr Kumar campaigned on a slogan of " Bihari (a native of Bihar) vs Bahari (outsider) ". What should be his punishment if Bihari remains a word of abuse in the rest of India? Perhaps he is the best person to tell us.

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