Thursday, December 03, 2015

If the world grows equally present inequality will remain.

Macroeconomics is enormously complex because the world keeps changing, new countries emerge, number of people keeps increasing, access to information means that people are no longer willing to accept the permanent hold on power of the old ruling class, as the Arab Spring demonstrated, and what happens in one part of the world influences events far away.  Economists are realising that a lot of classic teaching in economics is wrong, probably because human beings do not react logically, like machines. Their models are insufficient in today's world and they must study how historical events have shaped economic development. One says," Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." Another has worked out that for Canada to reduce its carbon emission the economy has to shrink to 1976 level and working hours of Canadians must decline by 75%. So, will the world survive if economic growth falls to zero? In the first millennium of the Common Era personal incomes fell in Byzantium and Egypt. In the 500 years preceding the industrial revolution there was no growth in Europe. " Zero growth gave us Genghis Khan and the Middle Ages, conquest and subjugation." The industrial revolution, fueled by fossil fuels, increased wealth, ended slavery and led to democracy. That may have been the end result but the industrial revolution was based on colonisation of Asia, Africa and the Americas, resulting in the deaths millions of original inhabitants and marginalisation of indigenous peoples. Inca and Mayan civilisations were wiped out, hundreds of millions died in famines in India, as the British looted our grains, and Inuits in Canada, Native Americans in the US and the Aborigines in Australia are still fighting for their rights. After World War II western powers cornered top positions in all international institutions, such as the UN Security Council, the World Bank and the IMF. They had advanced technology so they could buy commodities from the newly independent countries and sell them finished products at inflated prices. The sudden rise in the price of oil from $3 a barrel to $12 dollars a barrel in 1973 resulted in a steep recession in western countries and led to the invention of the term 'stagflation'. Economies of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China grew fast on exports of manufactured products, using energy from fossil fuels. India and African countries are following suit. Western nations are trying to protect their superiority by bullying poor countries at the WTO and the Climate Conference but no one is listening. It is no longer possible to colonise other nations through force so the US has resorted to negotiating trade blocks like NAFTA and TPP and is negotiating TTIP with Europe. Resources of the world being finite growth can only come through exploitation so conflicts will increase. If the world grows equally the west will retain its superiority. That is what they are trying for.

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