Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Socialism is here to stay.

At last some sanity in Venezuela. The opposition has won two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, bringing an end to 17 years of socialism, started by Hugo Chavez and followed by his successor Nicolas Maduro. He started free clinics for the poor, redistributed land, subsidised education and distributed cheap food. Quality of life improved, literacy rates went up and the Gini coefficient dropped from 50 in 1998, when he first came to power, to 39 in 2011. It all sounds fantastic but, as has been proved repeatedly from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the fall of the Berlin wall, redistribution does not work. Socialist policies resulted in hyperinflation and when the price of oil fell Venezuela suddenly found that it had no money to import products essential for daily life. People were forced to queue overnight to buy food. This in a country with the largest oil reserves in the world. The currency, the Bolivar Fuerte, which means the 'strong Bolivar', is officially pegged at 6.35 to the US dollar but in the black market it was 730 Bolivars to one dollar in September. Last month Argentina elected Mauricio Macri as president, to succeed Cristina Fernandez de Kerchner. Again her socialist policies have resulted in an inflation rate of 14.3% in October, down from 23.91% in January. The country defaulted on its foreign debt in 2001 and again in 2014. Argentina apparently produces great economists but has always had a lousy economy. In Brazil inflation rate is at 9.93% even though the interest rate is at a high of 14.15%. The GDP contracted by 4.5% in the third quarter which is 3 straight quarters of contraction, which means that it is in recession. The currency, the Real, is down 26.7% against the dollar in the last 6 months, which will only add to inflation by making imports more expensive, even as the collapse in global commodity prices is hurting revenues. The opposition is preparing to start impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. Yet, for a while, it was going very well. The Bolsa Familia program, started by the previous president, Lula Da Silva, was hailed as wonderful because it paid mothers in cash for every child sent to school and for regular medical checkups. That was what gave rise to the hysterical demands for 'targeted subsidies' in India. This after the socialist policies of the Congress resulted in inflation soaring over 14% in 2009. It is shown repeatedly that distributing handouts based on high levels of taxation causes inflation, reduces growth and results in increased poverty. So will socialism die in ignominy, as it deserves to. No. Because wealth produces envy, even though capitalists like Henry Ford, Larry Page and Steve Jobs invent new products which enrich our lives, while Marx, Lenin and Mao produced nothing. Politicians exploit this envy to promise instant riches and the cycle keeps repeating.

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