Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Make in India yes, but by whom?

The Prime Minister is travelling round the world inviting everyone to come and 'Make in India' but there is doubt that this will create the number of jobs that India desperately needs. Exports from India have been falling for 10 straight months, which means that we continue to run trade deficits, which will result in a current account deficit. China had a trade surplus of $343 billion with the US, only one country, in 2014 which was more than our total export for the last financial year. To increase exports we have to manufacture world class products at competitive prices and to do that industries will have to use robots. Robots can do repetitive jobs perfectly every time, they reduce waste, they are not affected by toxic chemicals, they can work round the clock, resulting in a huge increase in productivity, and they never go on strike. However, using robots will result in loss of employment for unskilled labor. As production increases jobs will be created for engineers, computer technicians and designers. But sadly, about half our graduates are unfit for employment. The fear of robots taking over jobs for humans has been taxing experts for a long time. Which are the most vulnerable professions susceptible to the coming invasion by robots? Low end unskilled jobs are naturally the most vulnerable. Cleaners, waiters, drivers and other such professions will be in danger but will robots take over jobs which require intelligence? It now appears that even jobs which require years of study and training maybe in danger. A robot, named Adam, has been conducting scientific experiments and another one, name Eve, is conducting research to find new molecules to treat malaria. Surgeries are being performed by robots. Robots could easily fly planes but it will take decades before human beings will trust them. Self driven cars are already being tested so will all cars become robotic in future? Not so easy. Suppose a child runs out in front of a car driven by a robot and the only option of saving the child is by steering the car into a canal, thereby killing the owner, what will a robot do? How should it be programmed? And if it were to kill the child would the owner of the robot be liable or the company which programmed it? What will happen to billions of human beings if robots take over all our jobs? The rich will get incredibly wealthy but the unskilled and illiterate will need intensive training and support. The unknown is always scary. However, some see the future as exceedingly bright as machines perform all hazardous work, solar energy provides unlimited cheap electricity, which will provide unlimited water from the sea, so that vertical farms can produce unlimited organic food in cities and people will be paid to keep an eye on machines, to see that everything is functioning smoothly. Paradise or hell, thankfully we will not live long enough to see it.

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