As the assembly elections wind down in Bihar a procession of pundits have written their analyses of how people vote and why. Some say that youth vote will be most important because they will vote for policies that create jobs and not mechanically along caste lines. Others point at the enmity between Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar of JDU Party and the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi of the BJP. Nitish Kumar was elected Chief Minister in 2010, in alliance with the BJP but such is his hatred of Modi that he has formed an alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav, someone he used to despise and who is out on bail after being convicted in the fodder scam. Clearly, principle be damned, do anything to win power. Lalu has apparently made a secret pact with Nitish that one of his sons must be appointed Deputy Chief Minister if the alliance wins, which means that he will be able to control the Nitish government. The most important factor in Bihar is caste. Lalu is pitching for the Yadav votes while Nitish hopes to get the votes of lower castes, Muslims and extremely backward castes. Trouble is that although the BJP is seen as a party of upper caste Hindus Modi himself is from a very low caste,who grew up selling tea on trains. Thus lower caste votes will get divided. Why is caste so important in Bihar? Because Bihar is economically extremely backward and a victory for someone from the same caste may mean extra money for development. There are few jobs in Bihar. Public sector jobs account for 93.8% of jobs in the organized sector, the private sector being almost non-existent. Literacy rate is the lowest in Bihar, among all the states in India. The fertility rate is the highest in India and maternal mortality is second to UP. When you have large numbers of young people with little education and no prospect of getting employed then crime rates have to be high, and they are. Because of the fear of kidnapping rich people of Bihar send their children to boarding schools outside the state. The desperation maybe appreciated from the fact that murder convicts, serving life sentences, are in high demand as grooms. There are many reasons why private companies avoid Bihar. It is easier to set up production in a state which is better developed, has good infrastructure, a pool of educated people to recruit from and safety for highly paid managers. Caste based reservations is the only hope of getting a permanent government job, with a steady salary. Unfortunately, this causes extreme jealousy and anger as some castes feel hard done by as the recent agitation by Patels in Gujarat has shown. Victory by one caste means that all government jobs go to it at the expense of others, leading to conflict. A ridiculous 68% of jobs are now reserved in Rajasthan. If Bihar votes for the BJP, Modi will be able to get the GST bill passed, which will jump start the economy. Bihar could thus increase employment in the whole of India. Will it?
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