Thursday, November 12, 2015

Does the US have the guts to take on China?

On Singles Day in China, on 11 November, the Chinese spent $1 billion in 8 minutes in shopping online. Alibaba alone sold $14.3 billion worth of products in 24 hours, compared to $2.04 billion which is the highest amount spent on online shopping in the US. What was happening in India on that day? Indians bought 60,000 Maggi kits online within 5 minutes. Splendid. Our aims are so much lower than any other country. But what about China? According to the Chinese Ambassador China is shifting from quantity to quality, based on innovation, which means lower but steady growth over the longer term. China grew by 7% this year and contributed 25.8% to the global economic growth in the first half of this year. Consumption contributed to 60% of the growth as China shifts its economy from investment to consumption. However, if demand contributed 60% of growth why did the Consumer Price Index fall from 1.6% in September to 1.3% in October? Shopping malls are closing down because of falling sales, which will only add to bad debts at banks. The government does not want growth to slow too much, maybe because it is afraid of unemployment creating social turbulence or maybe because it does not want to lose its international bragging rights. So it will try to stimulate the economy by even looser monetary policy, as it has done in the past. China has total debt of $28 trillion, 282% of the GDP so a high growth rate will help in bringing down the debt load but, on the other hand, lower interest rates may only encourage more borrowing and greater asset price bubbles. China has already cut interest rates 6 times this year. Some analysts are urging people to sell Chinese stocks on highs and not to buy on dips. A slowing economy means that China is importing less which affects countries which export to China, mainly commodity exporters, such as Australia, Brazil and Indonesia. As these economies lose momentum they will reduce their imports of Chinese goods so the damage may not be one sided. India exports little and even that has been falling for the last 10 months. What is worse is that as surplus builds up in China it is dumping its goods on the world market at cheaper rates, hurting Indian industries, such as steel. So large is the Chinese economy that it is restricting the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rate in the US. Apparently China is selling $60 billion US treasuries every month to support its currency, the renminbi, which amounts to a 25 basis point rise in US interest rate anyway. Others say that China manipulated US Federal Reserve by timing its rate cut just before the Fed meeting. Why else would it devalue its currency by 1.9% and then sell dollars to prop it up? Lots of US companies make huge profits from China but the US had a trade deficit of $343 billion with China last year and has already racked up $274 billion in deficit this year. Since inflation is low in the US this maybe the ideal time to jack up pressure on China by increasing rates. Do they have the guts?

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