Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Surely Iran has enough uranium for a bomb?

So the Iran nuclear deal is done with lots of hugs and smiles. The biggest grin was on the face of the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javed Zarif, showing that he had got most of what he wanted. The US says that the deal will prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb in the next 10 years by reducing the number of centrifuges from 19,000 to 5,000, by reducing the stockpile of low enriched uranium from 10,000kg to 300kg, the original core of the Arak heavy water reactor, producing weapons grade plutonium, will be removed and redesigned, intrusive IAEA inspections to detect any cheating, sanctions will ' snap back ' if there is any cheating and not producing any fissil material for 15 years. Western powers feel that Iran is so desperate to get rid of crippling sanctions that they will be glad to stick to the deal. Certainly, the spontaneous outburst of celebrations by the public shows how they are suffering. But the Iranian regime is not a democracy and Ayatollah Khamenei calls himself the ' Supreme Leader ', like Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Apparently, Iran started its nuclear program in 1984, running almost parallel with that of Pakistan's, which is not surprising since AQ Khan was behind both. What is to prevent Iran from continuing to enrich uranium in its military bases? Iran has agreed to " managed access " to its military sites on request which maybe stretched out to 25 days, enough time to clean out any proof. What if Iran already has enough Highly Enriched Uranium? The Hiroshima bomb contained 64kg of HEU but it could be reduced to 15kg. Iran already has missiles that can reach Saudi Arabia and Israel so both these countries have expressed doubts about the deal. Benjamin Netanyahu has denounced the deal as a " historic mistake " and said that Israel is not bound by the deal. The Arabs fear that lifting of sanctions will bring billions of dollars from oil exports which Iran will use to support its proxies in the middle east: Assad's army in Syria, the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, right on the southern border of Saudi Arabia. It is stunning to learn that Saudi Arabia, once an implacable enemy, is financially supporting Israel. We wonder if the US really understands the hatred that drives the people of the middle east. The hatred between Sunni Arabs and Shia Persians is so fierce that Saudi is willing to ally with Jewish Israel against Iran. Apparently Obama threatened to shoot down any Israeli plane trying to bomb Iran's nuclear sites last year. Obama is desperately in need of a legacy, having reduced US power to the point where it is now a spectator of world events. There is talk of a Nobel Peace Prize for Kerry and Zarif. Obama got his in 2009. Will the prizes be taken back if a nuclear war breaks out in the middle east? 

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