Circumstances change, voters always vote in self interest.

The BJP's astonishing victory in the Lok Sabha elections last year has been thoroughly dissected by all sorts of scholars since then. The consensus is that voter behavior in India is changing even if " contemporary voters demonstrated much greater continuity with the past." What are the changes in the voting behavior of Indians? " Indian voters, it was thought, typically prioritize other factors - patronage, populism or parochialism - when selecting their representatives. Yet evidence from state and national elections suggests macroeconomic realities are increasingly relevant." While respecting the greater knowledge of scholars we suggest that voter behavior has not changed at all. In fact, people vote in self interest all over the world, although how they calculate their self interest maybe extremely complicated, or even irrational. Thus, 93% of blacks voted for Obama in the 2012 elections even though he had made no effort to improve their lives in his first term. What it did was to increase bitterness among right wing whites a lot of whom think that he is the worst president since World War II. Indians may lack the standard of living or education of Americans but they vote according to how they perceive their self interest. " The old trope that Indian voters vote their caste than cast their vote is too simplistic. Even in states where caste conflict is known to be rife, voters often vote for candidates from castes and communities other than their own." It is not the fault of Indians. Politicians have sliced and diced the people according to religion and caste to get votes. The campaign by the Gujjars in Rajasthan to be designated as Scheduled Tribe is being blocked by another group which has monopoly of reserved jobs in the state. In a country where the population far outstrips resources voting for a candidate of the same caste maybe economically advantageous. The constant elevation of minorities by the Congress consolidated the Hindu vote while caste ceased to be such a problem because Mr Modi is from a backward caste and used to sell tea at railway stations. " Until the quality of the state improves or clean politicians can convincingly demonstrate that they can deliver, even well-informed voters might have good reasons to seek assistance of candidates who try to pass off their criminal records as signs of their competence." Exactly. With simmering discontent about social injustice people see corruption as just redressing the balance, as in the Vyapam scam. " Dynastic politics may not be popular, but dynastic politicians certainly are." True. One of Mr Modi's greatest asset is the lack of a parasitic family. Dynastic politicians win by diverting scarce resources to their constituencies to bribe voters so they win. Although it may look complicated it is very simple. People vote in self interest only.