Monday, April 20, 2015

Short term gain for long term pain?

India is still suffering the effects of over 200 years of British exploitation but we may get some revenge as politics in Britain becomes more like ours. As Britain goes to the polls on 7 May it looks extremely likely that there will be a hung parliament with smaller parties getting a larger share of seats than before, making a coalition government inevitable. Think the Congress led mishmash that we suffered from 2004-2014. Previously there were 2 major parties in Britain, Labour and Conservatives, with Liberals, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and the Plaid Cymru of Wales taking a handful of seats between them. So far Labour has had a lock on seats in Scotland. No longer. Like the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi the Scottish National Party is set to win more than 50 out of 59 seats in Scotland and its leader, Nicola Sturgeon has released its manifesto, promising handouts, like increase in minimum wage to 8.70 pounds per hour, increasing old age pension, 100,000 affordable homes, extra 9.5 billion pounds spending on the NHS and so on. Just like AAP. Sturgeon proposes to pay for the increased spending by increasing the top rate of income tax to 50% and by saving 130 billion pounds by canceling the renewal of the Trident nuclear system. Last year Scotland held a referendum for independence from Britain which lost by 55% to 45% after leaders of the 3 major parties promised increased powers and money for Scotland. Today Britain derives its power from being a member of the European Union, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a slave nation of the US. Already Cameron has promised a referendum on continued membership the European Union to reduce the attraction of the right wing UK Independence Party. If Scotland becomes independent there will be no United Kingdom so it will lose its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Without Trident it will be of little use to the US and without US protection may lose the Falkland Islands to Argentina. Getting out of the EU may see Spain claiming Gibraltar, with EU support. On its own England will be an insignificant monarchy somewhere in Europe, like Liechtenstein. Sturgeon is banking on the panic in the major parties to get what she wants. But she must be careful. If she pushes too hard she maybe successful in breaking up the UK but on its own Scotland, with North Sea oil running out, will be much poorer. Meanwhile Xi Jinping feels that visiting Pakistan is like visiting the home of his " own brother ". China wants to replace the US as the most powerful country in the world. It will fail. The US has a lot of friends, China only has enemies. Pakistan is a failed state with the ISI, the Taliban and Al Qaeda in a fatal embrace. Does Xi Jinping really want a bunch of mad dogs as his " own brother "? Maybe short term gain against India, but at what cost? 

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It is a fallacy to suggest that Scotland is reliant on oil. Scotland's GDP WITHOUT Oil is 99.5% of the UKs. Oil is a huge bonus.

The renewables sector - Scotland has 25% of EUROPEs renewable wave and tidal energy alone - is estimated to be worth 3 North Sea's of Oil. And being renewable this won't run out in 100 years!

An independent Scotland would be in the world's 10 richest countries by GDP.

Sakti Deb said...

Wow! Bully for Scotland. It will be a finger in the eye for the Sassenachs after years of trying. Robert the Bruce and his spider triumph at last.
A wee dram to that I say.