Thursday, April 23, 2015

Not just Yemen, will Saudi Arabia survive?

Two days back Saudi Arabia announced that it was going to stop bombing Houthi positions in Yemen in what was known as ' Operation Decisive Storm ' because they had ' degraded Houthi-controlled military infrastructure '. A Saudi prince has promised a Bentley to each pilot for the enormous success achieved and the ' Decisive Storm ' was going to be followed by ' Operation Renewal of Hope ' wherein they were going to talk peace with the Houthis over cups of Qahwa, to gently persuade them to give up all the territorial gains they have made. Can you kill people, destroy their homes and create a severe shortage of food and water one day and then talk peace the next? Clearly not, because just a few hours after announcing an end to the bombing Saudi planes were bombing Houthis again. Bombing may seem to be a low cost way to weaken an enemy but it can have unintended consequences, as the US has discovered by killing 2 western hostages in a drone attack in Pakistan. Did Pakistan willfully suppress intelligence in revenge for Pakistanis killed by US drone strikes? We may never know. The Houthis are a Shia sect from the north west of Yemen, bordering Saudi Arabia, but they have been going south towards Aden so what was Saudi going to gain from bombing them? As is becoming a habit US forces scarpered from Yemen with their tails between their legs. Obama was using drones to kill Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, very often killing innocent civilians instead, so the flight of the Americans along with the Saudi bombing has allowed Al Qaeda to capture the Ryan Airport in Al Mukalla. Yemen is effectively divided into a Houthi controlled west and an Al Qaeda controlled east. Bin Laden hated the Saudi royal family so making the Al Qaeda stronger is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia. In the north Shia militia, backed by Iran, are fighting ISIS militants. Both Al Qaeda and ISIS are Sunni while the Houthis, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Alawis in Syria, the south of Iraq and Iran are Shia. Every group would like to control the biggest prize of all, the 2 Holy Mosques in Makkah and Medina in Saudi Arabia. While talking about peace western countries are adding to the flames by supplying billions of dollars of weapons to Arab countries. The US has moved an aircraft carrier off the coast of Yemen to stop Iranian arms supply to the Houthis. All this fighting means lots of asylum seekers moving to Europe. No one knows how many terrorists are mixed in with them. The only good news out of the region is a sex shop, recently opened in Makkah, which will sell Halal sex toys. Will they have two and a half slits? Just wondering.

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