Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Can he succeed against such odds?

The Prime Minister is touring France, Germany and Canada, trying to entice foreign companies to invest in India by promising simpler laws and a stable business climate. But, why should foreign companies ' Make In India '? Should they set up factories solely for exports, taking advantage of cheap labor, or are they looking to sell to a potential market of 1.2 billion Indians? Our ramshackle infrastructure needs over $1 trillion to bring it up to standard before any foreigner will think of starting any project here. The Congress is determined to fight any change to the Land Acquisition Act because it does not want the economy to improve so that it can win in 2019 by claiming that Modi was a failure. Six opposition parties which cannot stand each other have formed an unholy alliance to stop the BJP. While China exported $2.2 trillion worth of goods in 2013 India exported only $465.9 billion and we hope to increase that to $900 by 2021, not a very ambitious target. The problem is that we have separate ministries for tourism, manufacturing and small industries so they are not covered by the Foreign Trade Policy. Because of poor demand firms are sitting on excess capacity which must be utilised before they will make new investments. Banks are unable to lend as bad loans have risen from 4.1% to 4.5% of all loans. Companies have taken on too much debt which they are unable to service because of falling growth. Tax rates are too high but, even worse, there is no clarity in tax laws. Our tax fellows come up with sudden demands on past incomes. Instead of ad hoc changes tax rules should be simple and fairly enforced, with heavy penalties for deliberate evasion. Decades of socialism has so corrupted our labor practices that a US artist destroyed his own art rather than pay extortion rates to labor, Rs 10,000 for moving 6 boxes a distance of 10 feet. The unions surrounded the truck and refused to allow any movement unless they were paid Rs 60,000. Union thugs are so powerful in Kerala that people are paid to keep watch and if anyone moves goods even by himself he has to pay them. To keep labor costs low we must increase women's participation in the labor market. In Maharashtra 70% of women are not working. The reasons are many. Very high rents prevent people from living near their place of work. Over population makes commuting a nightmare and it is cheaper to stay at home to look after children than employing a nanny. Finally, if foreign companies bring the latest technologies factories will be highly automated, with robots doing the work of humans. While that may increase our exports and bring in higher taxes it will not create that many jobs. Tough times for make in India. We pray for success.

No comments: