Friday, April 17, 2015

It is not about reason, it is about belief.

Apparently President Obama has bowed to a bipartisan demand for the Senate to be allowed to vote on any nuclear deal with Iran. Even his own supporters in the Democratic Party were demanding such a vote. In practice it means nothing because Obama can veto any bill passed by Congress and it will need 67 votes to overturn a veto. The Republicans control 54 seats out of 100 in the Senate, with Democrats controlling 44 and 2 for Independents. That means at least 11 Democrats have to rebel against the President for a veto to be overturned, which is extremely unlikely. So, why do senators want to waste time on a pointless exercise? It maybe because politicians see a benefit of voting against a deal in case it falls apart in the future, just like Obama won his first term on the basis of having voted against the Iraq war. Some maybe genuine supporters of Israel, whose Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has already denounced the framework as very bad. While others do not trust Iran to keep its word even as Iranian dissidents claim to have discovered a new secret facility northeast of Tehran. Iran has a history of previous deceit when it built a secret nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow under a mountain, to protect it from aerial bombardment, about 30 miles from the Shi'ite holy city of Qom, and acknowledged its existence only after being confronted with evidence from satellite images. Thus, the nuclear program seems to have religious significance for Iran. Is Obama trying to strengthen the hands of Secretary of State, John Kerry in his negotiations with Iran by agreeing to a Senate vote on a deal? Kerry could act tough by claiming that Congress will not accept lifting of sanctions unless Iran complies with its commitments totally. Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani has contemptuously dismissed the Senate vote, saying that Iran will deal only with sovereign nations and that the Senate vote is a US internal matter and of no consequence. He said that all sanctions must be lifted the day a deal is signed, while western governments want sanctions to be lifted gradually in keeping with Iranian compliance to the deal. There are those that see that any deal as better than war and that the US is strong enough to defend itself even if Iran develops nuclear weapons. Others advise caution because of past Iranian deceit and the difficulty of verifying Iranian compliance with the IAEA. Still others think that Ayatollah Khamenei regards the US as Iran's enemy and he is implacable in his hatred for Sunni Saudi Arabia and Jewish Israel. All that is true. But western people do not understand the realities of the middle east. So perhaps it does not matter what the US or Europe think but what Saudi Arabia and Israel think. If they believe that Iran is cheating and their existence is in danger they may react. We may yet see a combined Sunni/Jewish attack on Iran.

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