Wednesday, August 01, 2012

We are so gullible.

A new survey by Gallup shows that 52% of Indians think that it is a bad time to find a job while 36% think that it is a good time. Only Americans are more optimistic in that 38% of them think that it is good time while Europeans naturally are more gloomy where 72% think it is a bad time. The quarterly credit review released by the RBI this week clearly states that it cannot reduce interest rates unless the government lowers both trade and fiscal deficits. "Financing the latter from domestic saving crowds out private investment, thus lowering growth prospects. This, in turn, deters capital inflows, making it more difficult to finance the former. Failure to narrow the twin deficits with appropriate policy actions threatens both macroeconomic stability and growth sustainability," says the RBI. This, in RBI language, means that the much hyped growth story was completely false, created by enormous wasteful spending by this selfish government. In 2010-11 growth was 8.4% while inflation was 9.1% which is actually a fall in growth of 0.7%. In 2011-12 growth was 6.5% with inflation at 8.5% a fall of 2%. The RBI is predicting growth of 6.5% this year with Wholesale Price Index at 7% till March 2013 which means that Consumer Price Index will be at 10%. If the MNREGA scheme was based on providing jobs to the rural poor in building roads, waste treatment or water distribution systems it would have improved infrastructure and automatically stimulated healthy growth in the economy due to increased commerce which, in turn, would have led to higher tax collections and lower deficit. Instead money was given for doing nothing resulting in rural wage inflation feeding into food price rises and shooting fiscal deficit. Increasing salaries of useless civil servants by 80% allowed them to invest a greater share of their bribe money into property investment leading to a boom in property prices, a frenzy of construction of expensive apartments and spiraling commodity prices. Those who had access to this wealth, based on black money, strutted around in fancy cars, dined in expensive hotels and traveled abroad in style leading foreigners to believe that there was gold in them thar hills. It was all a mirage. The RBI is trying to protect banks, which are sitting on massive loans to builders, from a bad-loan bomb which will bring down their credit rating to junk status. Business fellows want interest rates to come down so that they can unload stock of unsold properties or face bankruptcy like Malya is facing with Kingfisher Airlines. The government is desperate for this myth to continue till 2014 elections. Enter Mr Chidambaram, architect of the present disaster. What budget is he going to conjure up next year leading to elections. With Congress facing a danger of wipe out will he adopt a scorched earth policy and increase deficit so much that any other party which wins in 2014 will be unable to govern? We live to die.

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