Sunday, August 12, 2012

Power can be a headache.

The Egyptian revolution began on 25 January 2011. It was a spontaneous outpouring of anger by thousands of Egyptians probably inspired by the revolution in Tunisia which began on 18 December 2010 and ended with the escape of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to Saudi Arabia on 14 January 2011. The revolution in Egypt was secular and led by the youth whose main slogan was food and marriage which really meant good jobs and wages. Mubarak resigned on 11 February 2012 amid great rejoicing but the revolution was hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood which won the ensuing parliamentary elections and has now won the presidential election. However, winning power by stealth was easy but holding on to it is going to be very much harder. Last month the Supreme Court ruled that the election of the parliament was unconstitutional and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces then dissolved the parliament. The SCAF also awarded extra constitutional powers to itself to keep all the benefits it enjoys. On July 7 militant Islamists attacked a border post in the Sinai and killed 16 border guards just as they were sitting down to eat after breaking their Ramadan fast. The militants then stole 2 security vehicles and attempted to crash them through the border fence into Israel. One vehicle exploded while the Israelis destroyed the other killing 7 militants. In response to this outrage Egyptian helicopters and tanks attacked Bedouin settlements in the Sinai killing 20 militants. Blaming Hamas for allowing militants to infiltrate into Egypt from Gaza, President Mohamed Morsi called the attack " cowardly ", closed the Rafah crossing into Gaza and brought in bulldozers to destroy tunnels that the Gaza residents have dug to break Israel's blockade. Today some gunmen opened fire on a checkpoint in the Um Shyhan are near the border with Israel while Egyptian security forces claim to have killed 5 fighters and injured 6 in al-Ghora in the Sheikh Zoweid area. Meanwhile the severe drought in the US is pushing up prices of food. Egypt imports 40% of its food and some 60% of wheat and its population is growing at 2% per year which is 3 children per woman. Being from the Muslim Brotherhood Mr Morsi is hardly likely to advocate family planning. To add to the problem upstream countries such as Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan are all demanding a greater share of the waters of the Nile which is the mainstay of Egypt's irrigation and hence its food. In fact, Ethiopia has already started work on the construction of a huge dam across the Blue Nile which will produce more than 5000 megawatts of electricity. Mr Morsi is urgently going to visit Ethiopia although it is doubtful that he can talk the Ethiopians into changing their minds. Only 3% of Egypt's land is arable and without the lion's share of the Nile there will not be enough food. No one wants to give up power but the Brotherhood may find that holding onto it is very hazardous. Ask Mubarak?

No comments: