A game of chicken.

Around 75% of Greeks want to stay within the Euro and around 70% of Greeks want to be rid of the austerity program which is part of the bail-out agreement. However, these two desires are mutually exclusive which surely means that a majority of Greeks are bonkers. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the far left party, Syriza is against the austerity program, calling it " barbaric and inhuman ". " It is an experiment - a neo-liberal shock that is driving my country into a humanitarian crisis," he said. His view is that severe reduction in public expenditure is increasing unemployment which is leading to contraction of the economy and the resulting fall in tax collections means that the proportion of debt to GDP will keep on rising. So Greece will be in recession for decades and its people will suffer extreme poverty. He wants austerity to be combined with measures to increase growth creating jobs and increasing revenue collection so that Greece will be able to pay off all its debts. He is daring European leaders to throw Greece out of the Euro. If Greece has to return to the Drachma it will be unable to pay its debts and European banks will suffer. French banks hold 9.36 billion Euros in Greek debt, German banks 7.9 billion, but crucially, Spain holds 746 million Euros in Greek debt and Italy holds 1.15 billion Euros. If Greece collapses there maybe a run on Spanish banks followed by Italy. Tsipras is calculating that this fear of spreading contagion will force European leaders to back down. European leaders, especially Germany, argue that it was irresponsible spending by successive Greek governments that led to the debt burden and so they must be responsible for sorting out the mess they find themselves in. There is a " moral imperative " of not rewarding bad behavior. The older Greek parties, New Democracy Party and PASOK, who together signed the bail-out agreement, are trying to frighten Greek voters by pointing out that if Greece is forced to exit the Euro it will be bankrupt. The Drachma will have no value, Greece will not be able to borrow and, without foreign exchange, will not be able to import vital commodities. Inflation will sky rocket and daily survival will become difficult. Only the tourism sector may benefit as foreigners will be able to afford luxuries they could not afford previously. There is some traction in both points of views. So what will Greeks do? Canny Greeks see their country as a difficult tenant who is refusing to pay his rent but, they argue, Europe will not burn its house down just to evict them. They know that there is enormous pressure on Angela Merkel of Germany to support some sort of growth program. Francois Hollande, the new French President, also wants growth and Obama, facing reelection, does not want a European collapse to trigger a recession in the US just now. They are calculating that if they support Syriza, European leaders will eventually come round. So who will blink first in this game of chicken? We hold our breaths.