Friday, March 25, 2011

Syria seems to be following a familiar path. Ban protests, use police to try and stop protesters, use lethal force killing a few dozen and when infuriated people come out in greater numbers announce some cosmetic reforms hoping to divide the protesters. This is what Saleh has been trying in Yemen with little success as the crowds keep getting larger. Syria should study what other countries have done. Bahrain invited Saudi Arabia to send in forces, declared a state of emergency, forcibly cleared out all protesters from Manama and arrested some of the leaders. They could do this because the rulers are Sunnis while the protesters are Shia so Bahrain blamed Iran for fomenting trouble. Iran is furious and recalled its ambassador to Bahrain but can hardly complain. Iran used maximum force against its protesters shutting down the internet, arresting leaders and allowing the Basij militia to kill and rape at will. This has worked for two years but tensions remain. Algeria has used its oil wealth to increase salaries of teachers, police and other government employees and is selling food at heavily subsidised rates. There remains another strategy that Syria could adopt. Try and engineer a proxy war against an external enemy which, in this case, would be Israel. Syria has longstanding grievance over Israeli occupation of the Golan heights. Hamas has been firing rockets into Israel for the last few days and a bus was bombed in Jerusalem a couple of days ago. Syria could ask Hezbollah to fire missiles into Israel to prod Israel into aerial bombardment. Would Iran send fighters into Saudi Arabia in the confusion remains to be seen. Endless possibilities.

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