Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The middle east is slowly but nicely coming to a boil. About a thousand troops with tanks have crossed over from Saudi Arabia into Bahrain, apparently, to guard official installations against protesters. Saudi Arabia is 90% Sunni while Bahrain is 80% Shia ruled by a Sunni royal family. The protesters want an end to Sunni rule and see Saudi forces as an invasion and an act of war. The Saudi government is worried about a Shia takeover of Bahrain because that will increase Iran's influence right at their doorstep and also because the oil containing eastern region of the country is home to its Shia minority. The Sunnis hate Shias with such ferocity that if necessary the Saudis will push the Shia into the waters of the Gulf but they will never allow them to gain power. In contrast to the venom being poured over Libya the US will only bleat about " restraint," " dialogue" and " political reforms." Iran, the only Shia country on the other side of the Gulf, will be furious but are hardly in a position to protest having treated its own protesters with extreme violence. Saudi Arabia has a long border to the north with Iraq, 60% of whose population is Shia and live along the Saudi border. The Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, has used security forces against students protesting against corruption killing at least 20. Iraqi leaders took shelter in Iran during Saddam's crackdown and will always side with Iran in whatever it may do. The Shias would love to control the two holy mosques at Makkah and Medina. Will Iran mount an attack on Saudi Arabia from the north when the US troops leave? Will the war draw muslims from all over? Whatever happens it will be very interesting.

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