Friday, December 03, 2010

Booming economy, absurd property prices, rising government debt, flood of foreign money. The US in 2007? No, it is India today. The GDP is growing at 8.9% and may surpass 9% by the end of the fiscal year. The Sensex has doubled since 2008 because of the flood of foreign money. Foreign investors have poured in $ 39 billion this year. No one knows precisely how much property prices have gained since much of the price is paid in black money but prices have increased around 400% since 2001, a gain of some 40% per year. However fiscal deficit is projected at 6.2% and would have been higher but for the windfall gains from selling 3G licenses and shares of public sector companies like Coal India. Exports grew 21.3% to $ 18 billion in October while imports grew 6.8% to $27.7 billion. Trade deficit between April and October stands at $ 72.77 billion. Inflation has come down to just over 8% due to bumper harvest following heavy monsoons but will probably start rising as seasonal increase in agricultural produce starts decreasing in spring. Foreign debt is $ 260 billion which is only 11% of total government borrowings. This means that the total debt is some $ 2.3 trillion, nearly double the GDP. The cost of servicing this debt must be phenomenal. Of course Indian and US economies are totally different in that Indians save around 30% of income and pay half the price of properties in cash and hence will do anything to prevent foreclosure but we cannot print dollars like the US can. Will India's economy suffer a crash like that of the US we do not know since the government talks only of the GDP and the opposition simply shouts. Liars all.

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