Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The European Union is in a great deal of bother. Greece has already received a bail out and now Ireland is under pressure to request a similar deal. The Irish are resisting because the government is reluctant to be seen to be handing over sovereignty to the EU before an upcoming election. And therein lies the problem. The EU was expanded too fast for political reasons to tie in countries of the former Soviet block. Although the USSR broke up and Russia is now a democracy the european countries, probably with US prodding, hastened to knit these countries tightly into their group. Countries were allowed to join the common currency, the euro, while retaining independent governments with local political pressures. Lessons learnt from the disaster of the UK, when Norman Lamont tied the pound sterling to the German deutschmark, were forgotten. The collapse in house prices in Ireland has meant that prices are now lower than the mortgage and people are unable to repay leaving banks with a pile of debts. Could a similar thing happen in India seeing the unreal prices of property? Not right away. Indians are shy of personal debts. Credit card use is minuscule and half the price of any property is paid in cash or black money. Having paid so much in cash an Indian will make any sacrifice not to lose it. With over half the economy in black the RBI has no hope of controlling inflation unless it raises rates to slow down growth. Delhi recently trebled circle rates. If the whole country increases circle rates to approximate real value black money will disappear. Speculative buying will end causing a collapse of prices. Luckily we are blissfully ignorant.

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