Monday, November 08, 2010

After visiting India and Indonesia Mr. Obama will be going to Seoul for a G 20 meeting which will naturally be about unemployment in the US and its efforts to increase exports. The US wants countries to agree to an upper limit for current account surplus or deficit at around 4%. In its efforts to stimulate its economy the Federal Reserve has infused $ 600 billion through Quantitative easing but a lot of this money is likely to come to Asia looking for higher returns. This is weakening the dollar which is good for the US but hurts export oriented economies in Asia and is creating inflation and asset price bubbles. Other countries have shown concern but India has opposed any set limit, this when we always run a current account deficit. Last week the government of Delhi decided to double ' circle rates ' for residential properties in the city. This sets the lowest rate at which stamp duty and registration charges will be calculated on any property in a given area regardless of the price declared by the buyer and seller. The highest rate is Rs. 125, 000 per sq yard which means that a small 200 sq yard flat is valued officially at Rs. 25 million. According to property dealers this is much lower than the actual price of properties which range from Rs. 3-800,000 per sq yard in upmarket areas. This puts the price of a 200 sq yard flat at between Rs. 60 and 160 million. Prices in Mumbai are even higher. Strangely the government and the RBI seem quite content with this uncontrolled property price inflation. Maybe the great economist at the helm will work some magic and everything will be alright. Why does it not fill me with confidence?

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