Saturday, February 16, 2008

In the eighties it the Sensex reached above 5000 points during the Harshad Mehta scam. The index kept on rising until retail investors started flocking to the market in large numbers and dubious IPOs raised many billions of rupees. When the market crashed many people were left bankrupt. In the nineties it was the turn of Ketan Parekh and the index reached above 6000 points. The same scenario was played out with the same results. When the Congress came to power some four years back the Sensex was just above 5000. Since then it reached 23000 before volatility set in. It finished last week around 18300 level. We are constantly being told by politicians and kleptocrats that our fundamentals are very strong but these people are liars anyway and speak through their fundament all the time. Fund managers and economists who come on as guests on news shows also say the same thing which makes it difficult to know whether this is indeed a rally based on strong economic progress or the mother of all scams. Since no other market in the world has risen so fast so far except the Shanghai Composite, which the Chinese government is doing its best to cool down, I am tempted to think that it is a huge scam. Is it going to crash? We do not know the answer to that one yet. Pointers may be found in the coming budget. Watch for giveaways and an early election.

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