Saturday, February 02, 2008

A rogue trader at Societe Generale Bank in France runs up positions worth fifty billion dollars which is more than the net worth of the bank. The bank unwinds in panic in a falling market excerbating the falls and taking losses over seven billion dollars in the process. The French authorities have no idea about what is going on and neither has the Fed. Even though experts keep saying that the Stock Markets do not dictate policy and Wall Street is closed for the day the Fed reduces interest rates by seventy five basis points following up with another reduction of fifty basis points nine days later. Bank of England follows suit. Only the ECB keeps European rates unchanged. We are told that households in the US and UK are heavily into debt and falling house prices will result in bankruptcies. By reducing interest rates central banks want to encourage people to borrow even more so that increased spending can stave off recession. Do the bankers expect house prices to keep on increasing infinitely and people to keep on borrowing on top of all their debt? At what point will houses become too expensive for anyone to buy and people become so indebted that all their income goes into financing interest on their debts? Meanwhile in India we are repeatedly told that fundamentals are strong and that the market will keep going north. Last year there were headlines in newspapers saying that Azim Premji of Wipro had become richer than Bill Gates because of the value of his holdings in Wipro. While Wipro makes profits of some 300 million dollars Microsoft earns in billions. Seems to me that all our experts are happy on LSD. People have been led to believe that in 'Incredible India' the Sensex will reach infinity. Truly we are incredible. Are we incredibly gullible?

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