Saturday, February 23, 2008

For the last couple of years or so we are constantly being reminded that India is growing in excess of 9% and how the economy is booming. Even at Davos India received a lot of attention, not as much as China perhaps, but enough to make headlines in news reports here. Easy credit and economic growth all over the world have been factors in our growth which is good but a large part has been due to a mind boggling rise in property prices. This has sparked a building boom of unprecedented proportions. Every rich man and his uncle is getting into the construction business and poorer people, from vegetable vendors to maid servants, have turned into property dealers. This has had a knock on effect on industries such as cement, steel, plumbing and electric goods industries. Labourers have been in great demand and have prospered relatively. Unfortunately half of the property business is conducted cash or black money which cannot be taxed or controlled. Consequently inflation is going up. To be sure rise in commodity prices such as oil is contributing to inflationary pressures but these factors can be accounted for. The black economy cannot be calculated and hence cannot be controlled. The Reserve Bank is holding on to higher interest rates, inspite of pressures from politicians, and has allowed the rupee to appreciate in an effort to control inflation and the government has kept petrol prices on hold inspite of rising crude prices. Is this a replay of the East Asian crisis of some ten years ago or will we have a soft landing is not known. Fear is that this house of cards is going to come crashing down.

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