Very bad or only a little bit?

"India became a free land on August 15, 1947, and was relieved from the reigns of 200-year old British rule." BQ. "If we estimate excess mortality from 1891 to 1920, with the average death rates of the 1880s as normal mortality, we find some 50  million (5 crore) people lost their lives under the aegis of British capitalism," wrote Dylan Sullivan and Jason Hickel on British rule in India. But, "If we measure excess mortality over England's 16th- and 17th-century average death rate, we find 165 million (16.5 crore) excess deaths in India between 1880 and 1920. This figure is larger than the combined number of deaths from both World Wars, including Nazi holocaust." "India's mortality rate from 1921 to 1950 was higher than England's in the 16th and 17th centuries," and "In fact, it was higher even than the average mortality rate that afflicted China during the Great Famine of 1959-61." Regarding the British Empire, "To the majority of Britons even today, it is something to be proud of, a force of progress, decency and rule of law around the world, despite the occasional excesses of a 'few bad apples'," wrote Caroline Elkins. "The natives were 'half-devil and half-child' in Rudyard Kipling's conception, John Stuart Mill advocated 'paternal despotism' to deal with them." "At every point the ideological agenda was to reconcile the logic of necessary violence with its civilising mission." "Much of India's trade in the 19th century, over two-thirds of imports and a third of exports, was with the UK. The imports were largely manufactured goods and exports were raw materials going into the making of these goods," wrote Vivek Kaul. "This ultimately had an impact on education levels." Even now, "The overall literacy rate as per our last census in 2011 was around 73%, with only 65% of women being literate." So, the British are devils? Not so, wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "India's GDP stagnated at $33.75 billion from 1 AD to 1000 AD, the Hindu-ruled period. Per capita income also stagnated at $450 as the population remained steady at around 75 million." The population stayed at the same level for 1000 years "Because drought, disease, and wars meant that merely staying alive was a challenge." "Between 1700 and 1950, India's GDP  went up from $50 billion to $222 billion, the fastest growth ever. India's share of world GDP fell not because it was impoverished but because the Industrial Revolution helped other countries grow much faster," wrote Aiyar. No matter what the figures say, conquering a nation with military force and subjugating its population is a criminal act. No excuses. And yet, even today a lot of Indians would prefer living in Britain than in India. "The latest UK Home Office statistics show that the number of Indians crossing the English Channel on small boats has shot up in the first three months of this year, making them the second-biggest cohort after Afghans." TOI. Afghans are escaping from the Taliban. What are Indians escaping from? Back to the evil colonial masters.  

Two bumbling nations.

"News that a Chinese coast guard ship fired water canon on a smaller Philippine counterpart in a disputed area of the South China Sea should be worrying enough," but videos show, "Most of the Chinese ships involved are marked 'China Coast Guard', but among the flotilla are also at least two blue-hulled vessels that resemble fishing boats." CNN. Experts believe that "those boats belong to a Beijing-controlled maritime militia that experts say is hundreds of vessels strong - and officially deniable - force that China uses to push its territorial claims both in the South China Sea and beyond." "The economic woes that China is currently facing, prompted fears that Beijing in turn could become more aggressive, and compensate by escalating the risk of a war with the US over Taiwan, Voice of America (VOA) reported." TOI. "Also, China's economic slowdown...is further expected to worsen if other nations follow the US lead in restricting investments in China." China may gamble that US help to Ukraine has left it short of weapons. "President Biden sat down for a recent interview in which he said the United States is low on 155 mm artillery ammunition rounds, sparking outrage and questions of competency from conservatives on social media." New York Post. What else is it low on? The US is certainly not low on debt. For the first time, the US Government debt reached $32.6 trillion or 122.8% of its nominal GDP in June 2023. CEIC. "Credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion in the second quarter", the New York Federal Reserve Bank said. Reuters. "Household debt ticked up 0.1% to $17.06 trillion" but "credit card delinquencies are at an 11-year high, as measured using a four-quarter average, the data showed." Meanwhile, "Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government's ability to pay its bills." Reuters. Biden seems to be borrowing the 'revdi culture' from India, possibly to increase his vote tally in next year's re-election bid. "In total, the Biden- Harris administration has approved more than $116.6 billion in student loan forgiveness for more than 3.4 million borrowers." US Department of Education. Just as PM Modi announced cash transfers of Rs 6000 per year to small and marginal farmers at an annual cost of Rs 750 billion just before the 2019 general election, Outlook, which he won handsomely. Farmers here, students there, revdi culture as default option. "Lean times faced by many US and European companies last longer than expected as they try to sell off their bulging inventories in an economic climate where demand is stalling." Reuters. "The fight against the steep price rises unleashed by the pandemic and war in Ukraine has been long and painful, with central banks hiking interest rates at a scorching pace to cool inflation." CNN. But, "Oil and food prices have jumped in recent weeks, and wages are growing strongly in some of the world's biggest economies." With the US election on 5 November 2024, it may be the best time for China to attack Taiwan. Will the US accept the challenge? Can it?

No humility. No sympathy or compassion either.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday (yesterday) addressed G20 Anti-Corruption Ministerial Meeting in Kolkata virtually, stating that India has a strict policy of zero tolerance against corruption." NDTV. But, only against the opposition. "The renewed hullaballoo about corruption - which as you know happens only among those in the political opposition; the clever ones who switch to the ruling party are at once washed clean with an unfailing saffron detergent - is, crucially, sought to be peddled with the stamp and seal of the Dear Leader," wrote Badri Raina. "One reason that the BJP won a landslide in 2014 was because it promised to eradicate corruption and create an India based on clean governance. After nine years of BJP rule, there should have been no corruption in India," wrote Vir Sanghvi. "Even if that is a sincere intention, upon assuming office, the winner will quickly realize  that it is best to focus  on critics of the government and opposition political parties, since going after one's own allies for corruption will erode one's political base. Hence, an unintended consequence of the original plan is to plant seeds of cronyism. Even while targeting corruption, protecting friends and doling out favors to allies strengthens the leaders hold on power, and the country slides towards authoritarianism. In the end, corruption, too, could end up rising rather than falling," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. An exact description of India under BJP in 3 sentences. "Humility does not come naturally to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi," wrote Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay. "Pragmatism bordering on unprincipled pursuit of power is clearly the party's mantra now." So, Modi has not uttered a word on Manipur for over two months even as, "Deadly violence has plunged Manipur, a scenic Indian state bordering Myanmar, into turmoil for more than two months." BBC. "The violence has left more than 130 people dead, nearly 60,000 have become refugees in their own land." Eventually, Modi was forced to answer a no-confidence motion in Parliament. "However, in his speech that lasted 2 hours 20 minutes, Modi spoke about the violence hit-state for barely ten minutes in which he said his government was working towards peace." The Wire. Instead, "Modi devoted the entire duration to recall the alleged wrongdoings of the Congress governments of the past" until "The opposition eventually walked out of the House in protest after Modi hadn't touched upon the Manipur issue nearly two hours into his speech." The Wire. Not just humility, Modi doesn't do sympathy or compassion either. Just as he has no sympathy for the people of Manipur he uttered not one word of sympathy for the thousands of migrant laborers forced to walk hundreds of kilometers with little children (TOI) when he imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world on 24 May 2020 with just 4 hours notice. NYT. And no help. Modi is beyond the point of no return. He cannot lose the next election in 2024. Will he impose martial law if he is losing? Will our generals obey? India is facing its greatest danger since Independence. Not from China or Pakistan, but from inside. 

Statist to billionaires.

"The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT)...restricted imports of certain laptops and computers under HSN8471 with immediate effect."ET. Restrictions imposed on "import of laptops, tablets, all-in-one personal computers and ultra small form factor computers and servers. These electronics can be imported only against a valid license meant for restricted imports." "The Indian 'big state' has lately been striking back. As it did this week by announcing drastic controls on the import of personal computers, laptops, tablets and so on," wrote Shekhar Gupta. "The objective, we were told officially first, was to promote domestic manufacturing. By the very next day, the discourse had moved on. National security had taken precedence." "When national security is invoked, Indians usually trust their government and go silent." But, "Every now and then, pictures of VIP tours through India's top scientific facilities, especially the laboratories of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), pop up on social media (mostly Twitter), where sharp eyed observers note the presence of Chinese CCTV cameras, Hikvision being the most prominent brand." "The biggest reform of 1991 was industrial delicensing. In one swoop, it took away the power of bureaucrats to decide who would produce what, how much, where and for whom," wrote Ajit Ranade. Most importantly, "We need to import low-cost tablets in large volumes simply to remedy a covid-induced education deficit," and "As digital devices have a high rate of obsolescence, free and instant access to the latest products are imperative." Our $500 billion exports of software needs high-tech hardware. "This move to suddenly label items as restricted doesn't ban them, it merely adds to the red tape for businesses," wrote Tim Culpan. "The earlier import-tax policy - part of the 'Make in India' program - was likely a far bigger driver of manufacturing than the later incentives." "But a restrictive regime that is based on licensing amounts to neither carrot (incentives) nor stick (tariffs)." By combing the annual Forbes list of billionaires, Ruchir Sharma found, "There were 500 billionaires worth a total of less than $1tn in 2000; now there are 2,500 worth over $12tn." "Ironically, these include most prominently nations with deep socialist roots, including France, Sweden, Russia and India." "Among emerging markets, the 2023 analysis highlights two more nations with strong statist tendencies, India and Russia. In both, total billionaire wealth exceeds 20% of GDP - nearly double the average of other developing nations on my list." The state has a 'monopoly on violence' because of its control of the police and military. "Thus the words 'statism' and 'statist' describe institutions and political practices in which executive authority gathers increasing levels and varieties of power into its hands." pages.uoregon. As a result, "With the wealth of the crony-capitalist sector going up from 5 percent to almost 8 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the past decade, India ranks at 10th position in the British magazine The Economist's 2023 'Crony-Capitalism Index'." The Print. Since laptops and tablets are essential today we can expect more billionaires among those that hold licenses and those that grant them. Statist to crony capitalism to billionaires. Up the index.        

Simply compounding.

"Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday (yesterday) unanimously decided to keep policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent for the third time in a row but revised retail inflation projection for the current fiscal to 5.4 percent from its earlier estimate of 5.1 percent, citing upturn in food inflation and uncertainties in global oil prices." DH. "The Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5 percent in the financial year 2023-24, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das." ET. "The RBI will withdraw nearly one trillion rupees ($12.07 billion) from the banking system through a temporary increase in the amount of funds lenders set aside with the central bank, as it tries to keep a lid on inflation." Reuters. "Liquidity surplus in India's banking system has averaged around 2.5 trillion rupees in August, up from 1.6 trillion rupees in July, pushing down overnight borrowing and lending rates." "To control the price rise, the government in 2016 gave a mandate to the RBI to keep retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2 percent on either side for a five-year period ending March 2021." ET. This mandate was extended to 31 March 2026. Though the mandate is to target a retail inflation of 4% the RBI seems to be targeting the upper limit of 6%. Inflation means rising prices and higher prices mean higher tax in government pockets. "India collected Rs 1.65 lakh crore (Rs 1.65 trillion) Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the month of July, registering a growth of 11% from a year earlier." ET. India's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4.6% in October 2019 and has been consistently higher than 4% since then, reaching a high of 7.8% in April 2022. rateinflation.com. Inflation is compounding. Politicians lie when they claim that CPI inflation of 4.81% in June 2023, BT, means that prices are coming down because this rise was on top of a 7% rise in prices in June 2022, which was on top of a 6.3% rise in June 2021 and another 6.3% rise in June 2020. Which means that an article which cost Rs 100 in May 2020 now costs Rs 126.72. If GST on that article is levied at 12%, the government would have got Rs 12 in May 2020 but, with the cost having risen to Rs 126.72, the government will now pocket Rs 15.20 in GST on the same article. No wonder then that the government's debt has fallen. "The Central Government's debt was Rs 155.6 lakh crore (Rs 155.6 trillion) as on March 31, 2023. It has reduced from 61.5 percent of GDP in 2020-21 to 57.1 percent of GDP in FY 2022-23," Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said." ET. That is because Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, grew at 16.1% to Rs 272.41 trillion in 2022-23, because of inflation, while Real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, is estimated to have grown by 7.2% to Rs 160.06 trillion. pib.gov.in. High prices mean that ordinary Indians are having to reduce their consumption, according to the RBI, ET, while government employees are to see a 3% rise in Dearness Allowance to 45%. BT. Compounding inflation and compounding Dearness Allowance. No wonder they can afford to smile.

Actually pouring.

"Now the world's most populous country, India could experience a decades-long investment boom. Goldman Sachs Investment Inc analysts expect its share of equity market capitalization to quadruple between now and 2075 - reaching 12%, when it will be neck and neck with China's. (Over that same period, the US share is projected to drop by half, to 22%)." "China is the world's second largest economy, featuring a massive consumer market and advanced manufacturing. India has friendlier relations with the West and a young workforce." Although still the second largest economy, China's problems are multiplying. "China's consumer and producer prices both declined in July from a year ago, a sign of deflation pressure as demand in the world's second largest economy wanes. The consumer price index dropped 0.3% last month," while "Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month, contracting 4.4% in July from a year earlier." China's "Imports dropped 12.4% in July year-on-year," while "exports contracted 14.5%, steeper than an expected 12.5% decline and the previous month's 12.4% fall." Reuters. "Mexico and Canada have replaced China as the top providers of goods to the US as a nearshoring push encourages more diversified supply chains. The US imported $203 billion in goods from China in the first six months of the year, 25% less than in the same period in 2022, based on the latest unadjusted data from the Commerce Department." ET. However, things are never as they seem. To bypass trade restrictions, "scores of major Chinese companies are investing aggressively in Mexico, taking advantage of an expansive North American trade deal. Tracing a path forged by Japanese and South Korean companies, Chinese firms are establishing factories that allow them to label their goods 'Made in Mexico', then trucking their products into the United States duty-free." ET. But, when it rains, it pours. "Typhoon Doksuri slammed into southeastern China's Fujian province on July 28," and "The rains that followed soaked Hebei, a province of 75 million, and the neighboring cities of Beijing and Tianjin. Flooding in those regions stranded residents, washed away bridges and highways, killing about 30 people in total, according to Chinese authorities." CNN. But, of course, flooding cannot be permitted in Zhongnanhai in Beijing (wikipedia). "Nearly 1 million people in China's northern Hebei province were relocated after record rains forced authorities to channel water from swollen rivers to some populated areas for storage, sparking anger online over the homes sacrificed to save Beijing." NDTV. The deputy commander of the PLA Rocket Force Wu Guohua died under mysterious circumstances on 6 June, India Today, and, recently, "China replaced two leaders of an elite unit managing its nuclear arsenal, triggering speculation of a purge." BBC. All very well, but will India gain from China's problems? We hope.    

More naked than Churchill.

"An investigation by the New York Times (NYT) has reached the doors of the Lok Sabha and put the spotlight once again on Neville Roy Singham, who has been accused of working closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide, including news portal NewsClick." ET. "Singham, 69, himself sits in Shanghai, where one outlet in his network is co-producing a YouTube show financed in part by the city's propaganda department." "In New Delhi, corporate filings show, Singham's network financed NewsClick, that sprinkled its coverage with Chinese government talking points." "NewsClick in a statement on their website said the allegations are false and misleading." "In 2017, Singham married Jodie Evans, a former Democratic political adviser and co-founder of Code Pink. The wedding, in Jamaica, was a Who's Who of progressivism." DH. "Singham sent his money through a system that concealed his giving." He used 4 nonprofits, "Because US nonprofit groups do not need to disclose individual donors, these four nonprofits worked like a financial geyser." "Evan, 68, was once a Democratic insider who managed the 1992 presidential campaign of California Governor Jerry Brown." "Evans now stridently supports China." So what? We know that China uses all kinds of nefarious methods to extend its influence. The most important question is whether China influenced the 2020 US elections through Singham to ensure a victory for Democrat Party candidate Joe Biden (wikipedia), because of the effects of President Trump's tariffs on the Chinese economy (cepr.org) and whether China is the motivator behind a series of politically motivated cases against Donald Trump (BBC) to ensure that he does not return to power in the 2024 election. Predictably, the NYT article has stirred up mindless shouting by the usual storm troopers in India. "Calling itself a pioneer in using big data for 'hybrid warfare' and the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation', a Shenzen-based technology company with links to the Chinese government, and the Chinese Communist Party, is monitoring over 10,000 Indian individuals and organisations in its global database of 'foreign targets', an investigation by the Indian Express has revealed." That includes the Prime Minister. China has hacked into Indian hospitals, power grids and UIDAI which houses biometric details of all Indian citizens. Outlook. It means that China not only knows everything going on in our country but can create duplicate identities of Indian citizens using the intrusive Aadhaar card (wikipedia). A naked Churchill apparently had nothing to hide from Roosevelt. The whole Indian nation is naked before China. Who needs Singham?        

Pakistani woman wins.

"What PM Shehbaz Sharif blurted out recently," "Though none in high office can admit it publicly, in a moment of despair he admitted that wherever he visits, disdain is written on the faces of hosts," wrote Pervez Hoodbhoy. Even worse, "This understated the truth: Pakistan is seen everywhere as problematic even as major world powers cosy up to India; foreign companies are fleeing skill-empty Pakistan but high-tech semiconductor manufacturers woo India; and Pakistan's space program has faded away even as Chandrayaan and Mangalyaan elevated India to the world's top four space-faring nations." "The economy is projected to grow at two to three percent, and the average inflation rate is expected to decline to the range of 20-22pc in FY24, from 29.2pc in FY23, according to the latest State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) monetary policy statement." The rupee will decline by 20.4% in FY24, according to the IMF. It is trading at 284.80 to 1 USD. xe.com. The economy grew by a dismal 0.29% in FY23, the economy shrank from $375.449 billion in FY22 to $341.554 billion in FY23, and per capita income fell from $1,766 to $1,568. Dawn. The latest census estimated the country's population at just under 250 million, total fertility rate is at 3.3% and the population is projected to cross 400 million by 2050. Dawn. Politicians are competing to use religion against opponents. "Jinnah was labeled Kafir-e-Azam by the hard right. Zia used Nizam-e-Mustafa to ascend to power." Dawn. "But what is happening now is different. Politicians have begun taking more and more extreme positions, and it is actually working." "The game of 'Who is a Better Muslim' needs to end. Unless it does soon, it will turn into a trans-generational shift towards extremism and violence, the likes of which we have not seen before." Then there is the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). "The recent militant attack in the Zhob town of Balochistan, where the Pakistan military lost nine soldiers, was one of the latest in a string of attacks targeting security forces in areas that were previously considered relatively free of militancy." Dawn. It would therefore seem to make sense that Pakistani woman Seema Ghulam Haider apparently sold her house in Pakistan, flew to Dubai and then to Nepal and finally crossed the land border between Nepal and India by bus, with four children, to marry and live with her lover Sachin Meena, whom she met online while playing PUBG. dseodisha.in. Life in India should be much easier than in Pakistan. Hence, it is impossible to understand why, "A 34-year-old Indian mother of two children who traveled to a remote village in Pakistan to marry her Facebook friend after converting to Islam." ET. "Anju - who now goes by the name of Fatima after converting to Islam - on July 25 married her 29-year-old friend Nasrullah, whose home is in the Upper Dir district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa." ET. Common sense says that Pakistani Seema has got a much better deal than Indian Anju. Hence, Pakistani woman more intelligent than Indian. Much more.

Not so vibrant.

"Of the 4,001 legislators in state legislatures across the country, 44% face criminal charges. The picture at the central level is not much better - 43% of Lok Sabha MPs elected in 2019 have criminal charges against them, compared with 34% in 2014. It's not just criminal charges that MPs have racked up - the assets of 71 MPs reelected to the Lok Sabha between 2009 and 2019 ballooned close to 300% on average." We know all this because of the non-profit Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) set up 25 years ago by Prof Trilochan Sastry and some of his colleagues at IIM-Ahmedabad. Recently another professor, Sabyasachi Das at Ashoka University has written a paper "Democratic Backsliding in the World's Largest Democracy" in which he analyses huge amounts of data to find indications of manipulation in favor of the BJP in he 2019 general election. "The paper says that this manipulation resulted in the party (BJP) winning a disproportionate share of closely contested constituencies in the 2019 Lok Sabha election." The Wire. "While the figure is much less than the BJP's required half-way mark of 272 to form a government on its own, the author alarmingly concludes through data analysis that electoral fraud even in a single constituency would imply that such manipulations by incumbent parties are possible." "The Ashoka University came out with a statement distancing itself from the research, as the paper attracted criticism from the section supporting the ruling BJP," DH. This is not the first time that Ashoka University has caved into threats from the BJP. In 2021, Prof Pratap Bhanu Mehta resigned his post at the university as, "After a meeting with Founders it has become abundantly clear to me that my association with the University may be considered a political liability. My public writing in support of a politics that tries to honor constitutional values of freedom and equal respect for all citizens, is perceived to carry risks for the university." "Two days after political commentator Pratap Bhanu Mehta resigned from the Ashoka University, his colleague Arvind Subramanian, put in his papers...and faculty members wrote to the vice-chancellor expressing their deep anguish." ET. What makes suspicion of manipulation credible is that "the Union government is yet to provide a reply for the last four years after it promised parliament that it would obtain information from the Election Commission about possible discrepancies between the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) tallies during the 2019 elections." The Wire. Maybe it can't. Because the answer is embarrassing. BJP MP Nishikant Dubey tweeted "how can someone in the name of half-baked research discredit India's vibrant poll process?" Firstly, the paper does not discredit the "vibrant poll process", but manipulation in favor of the BJP. Second, Dubey does not provide any statistical analysis of his own but labels the research "half-baked". This is clear mudslinging and he should be prosecuted for criminal defamation, which only India seems to practice (The Wire). Criminals in control. And they are passing laws. What a democracy! Anything but vibrant.  

Cheetahs are foreigners.

On 17 September 2022, "The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi today released wild Cheetahs - which had become extinct from India - in Kuno National Park (KNP). Cheetahs - brought from Namibia - are being introduced in India under Project Cheetah, which is the world's first inter-continental large wild carnivore translocation project. Out of the eight Cheetahs there are five female and three male Cheetahs." pib.gov.in. Cheetahs are highly specialised living creatures, not posters for photo ops. "So far, nine cheetahs have died at KNP since March." TOI. "Last month, two cheetahs died due to infection in wounds caused by the radio collars around their necks. However, the environment ministry said all cheetah deaths were due to natural causes." "The two African cheetahs found dead in India's KNP this week perished due to bacterial infection in their blood after a maggot infestation in the wet skin under their radio collars that went unchecked, a leading South African expert said." The Independent. Must have been in agony. But, they died of "natural causes". So lucky! "South African and Namibian experts behind the translocation of cheetahs to India have written to the Supreme Court that their 'expert opinions are being ignored by the newly set up steering committee of the project' and they have been reduced to 'window dressing'." TOI. "The committee has denied the allegations." We Indians know everything from our ancient knowledge. Don't need foreigners to advise us. In October 2022, "The Indian government's science departments announced...a plan to organise a conference on akash or space, described as one of the five 'primal elements' of panchamabhoot alongside agni (fire), vayu (air), jala (water) and prithvi (earth)." TT. In February 2022, "Amid criticism about a central government body spreading  'superstition and unscientific' information about cows through reference material on cattle, the Rashtriya Kamdhenu Aayog (RKA)...deferred its 'Gau Vigyan' (cow science) online exam scheduled for February 25." TOI. "A meeting of experts led by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) director general Dr Rajiv Bahl, and Niti Aayog member Dr VK Paul was held last week to discuss setting indigenous growth standards for children. This is despite several experts saying that this was a futile exercise since India was a part of the Multicentric Growth Reference Study (MGRS) of the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2003, which drew up the growth standards currently being used in India." TOI. But first, the director of the International Institute for Population Sciences, which conducts the Family Health Surveys,  KS James was suspended for inconvenient data. The Wire. Indian lives are cheap. Who cares if children are stunted and anemic? Just create new lower standards. But the cheetahs are foreigners. Problem.    

License and ban.

"India needs to focus on the manufacturing sector to achieve sustained growth of 7-7.5 percent until 2030, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." ET. "The share of manufacturing in total gross value added has to increase from 16 percent at present to at least 25 percent of GDP at the expense of agriculture and low value added services," he said. Gross fixed capital formation, which is a marker for investment, must increase from 29% to 35% of GDP. "Over the past two decades, the services sector grew rapidly without a manufacturing boom, unlike other countries where manufacturing growth precedes services. The services sector's contribution to GDP has risen from 45 percent to 55 percent while manufacturing has remained largely stagnant at 15 percent in 2017 and 17 percent in 2022." ET. "India on Thursday (3 August) said it will impose a licensing requirement for imports of laptops, tablets and personal computers with immediate effect, a move that could hit hard the likes of Apple, Dell and Samsung and force them to boost local manufacturing." Reuters. "The government in its notification gave no reason for the move." Apparently this is because of security concerns about hardware imported from China. This after, "iPhone maker Apple...opened its first-ever store in India at Mumbai's Bandra Kurla Complex, underscoring its ambitious drive in the country." "The US company now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India," and "Apple's suppliers Foxconn, Wistron and Pegatron employ some 60,000 workers in India." TOI. "According to provisional data from the commerce ministry, India's exports to China dipped by 28% to $15.32 billion in 2022-23, while imports rose by 4.16% to $98.51 billion in the last fiscal. The trade gap widened to a record high of $83.2 billion." The Wire. "India's pharmaceutical exports this fiscal year are set to grow nearly twice as fast as last year to hit sales of $27 billion, driven by strong US buying, a government-backed trade body told Reuters, despite deaths linked to Indian-made cough syrups." ET. A report by CareEdge showed that 43% of India's total pharma imports are from China. "The contribution of bulk drug imports from China has exhibited significant growth in both value and volume terms, increasing from 64% and 62% in FY14 to 71% and 75% during FY23, respectively," the report said. "On 20 July, India banned exports of non-basmati white rice in an attempt to calm rising domestic prices at home." BBC. "IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas reckons the ban would drive up prices and that global grain prices could rise up to 15% this year." "India has a stockpile of an eye-popping 41 million tonnes of rice - more than three times the buffer requirement." The government "could easily distribute to poorer Indians or release into the open market to cool down prices. The fact is, for control-mad bureaucrats in New Delhi, export bans have become the first, not last, response to rising domestic prices," wrote Mihir Sharma. Trade is a two-way process. If you restrict, others also will.

Rating down, market down, dollar up.

"Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday (1 August) downgraded the US government's top credit rating, a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago." Reuters. "Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA." "More than a decade ago, John B Chambers and his colleagues at Standard & Poor's made a momentous decision: They were going to strip the United States of its cherished AAA credit rating." npr. "On the first day of trading after the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 600 points, and the Nasdaq closed 6.9% lower. Markets hadn't had a day that bad since the Global Financial Crisis." Naturally, the Obama administration reacted furiously and S&P President Deven Sharma was forced out. Reuters. After the recent Fitch downgrade, "On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1%, to 35,282, the S&P 500 lost 1.38%, to 4,513, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.17%, to 13,973." Reuters. Strangely, Indian stocks fell as well. "India's benchmark stock indices declined nearly 1% through midday on Wednesday (2 August)," as "All sectors plunged, with stocks of the public-sector banks and metals correcting the most." BQ. Equally strangely, "The dollar rose on Wednesday as investors shrugged off Fitch's US credit rating downgrade," because, "Private payrolls rose by 324,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed, more than the increase of 189,000 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast." ET. "The Indian rupee ended 14 paise lower against the US dollar on Thursday (yesterday) amid a stronger American currency in the overseas market  and weakness in domestic equities." Mint. "On Wednesday, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) net sold Indian shares worth Rs 1,877.84 crore (Rs 18.7784 billion), while Domestic Institutional Investors net sold shares to the tune of Rs 2.23 crore (Rs 22.3 million)." Foreign funds were selling emerging markets to reduce risk and to seek safe haven, which happened to be the dollar. ET. "Indian investors turned poorer by Rs 3.5 lakh crore (RS 3.5 trillion) on Wednesday as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares to meet redemption pressures in developed markets spooked by Fitch Ratings Inc's downgrade of US credit rating." HT pressreader. "As foreign investors repatriated dollars after selling their Indian assets, demand for the greenback rose, driving the rupee lower by 33 paise to close at Rs 82.58 to the dollar." "If you hear the buzz, the Indian economy is the bright spot in a gloomy world." ET. "Why then, do all three global rating agencies, namely Fitch, S&P and Moody's, have the lowest investment-grade rating on India?" Ethnic clashes continue to kill and destroy properties in Manipur (wikipedia) and Haryana is just cleaning up after violence between Hindus and Muslims (TOI). That shows poor governance and makes India unstable. If American companies can downgrade America, India would be easy. Must be careful. Very.    

A matter of millions.

"The number of income tax returns (ITRs) filed in the assessment year 2023-24 touched an all-time high of more than 67.7 million, which is 16% higher than the total ITRs filed during the previous assessment year's 58.3 million." Mint. Assessment year (AY) 2023-24 is when the total income earned in the fiscal year 2022-23 is the computed and tax on the income is collected. hdfclifecom. Of the total, 5.37 million ITRs were from first-time filers, which is an indication of an expanding tax base. High fives all round. However, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman claimed 74 million entities had filed ITRs. TOI. "There has been a 6.18 percent increase in the number of persons filing Income Tax Returns in FY 2022-23 as compared to persons in FY 2021-22," she said in the Lok Sabha. FY 2022-23 corresponds to AY 2023-24, and 'persons' presumably means 'individuals', and not companies. The tax department says 16% increase while the FM tells parliament 6.18%. In the period 2002-2008, "Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a measure of investment in the economy, touched an all-time high of 36% of GDP in 2007-08 (at current prices) and averaged a heady 34% during the period," wrote N Madhavan. Average economic growth was 8.8%. "GFCF has steadily declined and is currently hovering at 29%." The government claims that animal spirits are back. "The expansion of private capex in 2022-23 is broad-based with an increase in most sectors," said Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran. There is private investment but "it is selective in sectors such as cement, auto,oil & gas, green investments and those driven by production-linked incentives (PLI) schemes," said Hetal Gandhi. Production linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is an incentive provided by the government to increase manufacturing within India. wikipedia. "Of the new projects worth Rs 5.96 trillion announced in the first quarter of 2023-24 - the highest in five years - almost 74% of the amount is from the airline sector, which ordered new planes by the hundreds." This is not an investment in India as the planes will be from Boeing, an American company, or Airbus, a European one. "The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Indian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 57.7 in July, a tad lower than 57.8 in June," wrote Harsha Jethmalani. However, "Growth in new export business picked up to the fastest pace since November, according to the PMI survey." Sadly, "In the first half of 2023 alone, approximately 70 startups have collectively laid off more than 17,000 employees, according to data from CIEL HR, a recruiting and staffing firm." ET. Worse, "Only 45% of Indian graduates who apply for jobs are employable, with the readiness to meet industry's fast changing demands, a new study based on evaluations across 2,500 campuses and 440,000 learners has suggested." ET. Can't be taxpayers if you can't be employed. Hence the confusion in the increase. 16% or 6.18%?     

Growth at any price.

"The combined index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) jumped by 8.2% in June 2023 which was the highest in five months." Mint. "Seven of eight sectors which include Steel, Coal, Cement, Refinery Products, Natural Gas, Fertilizers and Electricity reported an increase in production, while the production of Crude Oil declined by 0.6% during June 2023." Decline in production of crude oil with a rise in refinery products reflects the increased import of cheap Russian oil. "India's imports of oil from Russia rose to an all-time high in June. ET. "India bought nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June." "In terms of market share, Russia supplied about 42% of India's crude oil imports in April-June, the first quarter of India's fiscal year." "India collected Rs 1.65 lakh crore (Rs 1.65 trillion) Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the month of July, registering growth of 11% from a year earlier." ET. "The central government's debt stood at Rs 155.6 lakh crore (Rs 155.6 trillion) or 57.1 percent of the GDP at the end of March 2023, Parliament was informed." ET. "The debt of state governments at the end of 2022-23 is estimated to be about 28 percent of GDP." So, the combined debt of the Center and state governments comes to 85.1% of GDP. The Central government's capital expenditure rose 33% for the third year in a row to Rs 10 trillion (3.3% of GDP) and is budgeted at Rs 13.7 trillion (4.5% of GDP) for 2023-24. However, despite the jump in capital spending, "Formal job creation remained muted in May after a stellar rise in April even as less-paying jobs increased, official data...showed." ET. "According to HSBC Holdings Plc, the widespread cereal shortages in India could drive inflation higher in the country, even though the shock from vegetable prices is expected to ease in the coming months." ET. "Vegetable prices in India are set to stay higher for longer, as erratic monsoon rains delayed planting and damaged ripening crops, farmers and traders said." Reuters. Both energy and grain prices spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine. "While the energy price index is significantly below pre-war levels, the same cannot be said about grain prices," wrote Roshan Kishore. But, "Indians singed by price pressures may not get any relief soon on fuel prices, as economists don't expect the Central government to immediately cut taxes on petrol or diesel despite the availability of fiscal space and oil marketers earning close to Rs 10 for every liter they sell." ET. "A disaggregated analysis of Consumer Prime Index (CPI) data - it is India's benchmark inflation measure - shows that while the contribution of fuel prices to the headline inflation number has come down, it is still in positive territory." The government is unconcerned about high food prices because high tax collections means more to spend for the election next year. And so, "Though the diet itself might be less expensive almost three-quarters of India's population could not afford a healthy diet in 2021," and "What is more alarming is the fact the the new UN report also shows the prevalence of undernourishment within India is on the rise - and well above global prevalence." HT. The government is rich, people are undernourished. That is growth. With Indian characteristics.

Opium wins.

"In an unprecedented move, the Union government has suspended the director of the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), KS James, citing an irregularity in recruitment, sources have told The Wire." The IIPS prepares the National Family Health Survey report and "Sources told The Wire that James had been asked by the government to resign earlier as the government was not happy with certain data sets that came up in the surveys conducted by the IIPS. However, he was reluctant to step down for the reasons being given." According to a note, James is under investigation. "Titled, 'Brief Note on Suspension of Prof James, Director and Senior Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)', the statement was put out ostensibly by the Union health ministry on July 29. The note is undated, unsigned and on paper which does not carry an official letterhead." The Wire. Cowards and criminals prefer anonymity. It is very brave of The Wire to publish such underhand activity because a survey of the Indian media by Lokniti and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies found that "82% of those surveyed responded that their media organisation supported the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)." The Wire. "Over half of English language journalists reported a higher prevalence of experience of workplace discrimination based on their political opinions." Just as journalists support the BJP to protect their jobs, so do economists. "Policy positions no longer seem based on economics. Instead, economists' public utterances tend to signal a leaning towards personalities or politics, perhaps to get picked for policymaking positions, or seem to vent frustration at getting fired from their jobs," wrote Puja Mehra. Our gross domestic product (GDP) figures are suspect wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "Given the data in India's statistical system, annual data on many sectors is unavailable. India's national accountants use outdated data, heroic assumptions and rough proxies to fill these gaps in the national accounting database. Hence, the first step to make sense of our growth rates is to put an error band around GDP figures and GDP growth rates." If the data are adverse the government simply suppresses them. "On January 28, 2019, PC Mohanan resigned as the acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC)...in protest at a delay in releasing a new set of jobs statistics. Another member of NSC J Meenakshi, quit with him." NDTV. Even after 4 years, the government has not provided information about discrepancies between Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) for the general election in 2019. The Wire. It cannot. Prof Sabyasachi Das of Ashoka University wrote a paper 'Democratic Backsliding in the World's Largest Democracy', in which he examined all the data of the 2019 election and found "significant irregularities" and "in constituencies that were closely contested between a candidate from the incumbent party and a rival, the incumbent party (BJP) won disproportionately more of them than lost. This is known as the McCrary test." Facts are inconvenient. "Religion is the opium of the people," said Karl Marx. wikipedia. Dish out the opium of Hindutva and win. Suppress facts.

It'll be easy.

"The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook database shows that India will overtake both Japan and Germany, currently the third and fourth largest economies respectively, in 2026-27 to become the third largest economy." HT. The economic reforms following the balance of payments crisis in 1991, when India had to pledge 67 tons of gold as security to borrow from the IMF (wikipedia), unleashed animal spirits and a surge in growth. According to the Provisional Estimates of National Income, "The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 percent as compared to 9.1 percent in 2021-22." pib,gov.in. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is estimated to be Rs 1,06,822 ($1302) in 2021-22 and Rs 1,13,395 ($1382) in 2022-23. According to the World Bank, lower middle income countries are those with GNI per capita of $1036-$4045 and upper middle income countries have GNI per capita of $4046-$12,535. What will it take to get from a lower middle income nation with GNI per capita of $1302 to a developed nation with a GNI per capita income of $13,000? Our GDP has to grow much faster than projected. GDP will grow at over 7% in 2023-24, predicted our Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran. ET. The IMF predicted that "India's GDP growth would fall from 7.2% in FY23 to 6.1% in the current financial year, and then rise slightly to 6.3% in FY25." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India expects our growth rate at 6.5% in 2023-24. NDTV. India needs to "generate mass employment that guarantees a base minimum income. There is more than enough data to show that income levels for most Indians are far from adequate to guarantee a decent living." "India's young and expanding population, with more students leaving school every year to start careers," is seen as a demographic dividend, but "At the same time, managers struggle with enormous personnel problems. Finding people willing to uproot themselves for the factory jobs most crucial to long-term economic growth can be difficult. Training can be expensive, and keeping them can be nearly impossible." DH. Government jobs are the most coveted. "According to a report by the Department of Personnel and Training, over 220 million applicants have applied for government jobs since 2014, and over 722,000 have received permanent positions in the central government." ET. Young people keep appearing for tests to secure these coveted jobs. As a result the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates the rate of unemployment for those 20-24 years in age was at 41.9% in September 2022; it was 9.8% for those in the 25-29 years category. The State of Science Index-2023 survey by 3M found that "85 percent respondents said shortage of skilled trade workers was on account of parents discouraging children from pursuing opportunities in the sector." ET. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the focus of the government is on "infrastructure, investment, innovation and inclusiveness - to make India a developed nation by 2047." DNA. Chhoomantar. Easy.  

Settle it quickly.

"A cold medication made in India and sold in Iraq is tainted with toxic chemicals, a test commissioned by Bloomberg News shows." ET. "A bottle of Cold Out purchased at a pharmacy in Baghdad in March contains 2.1% ethylene glycol, according to Valisure LLC, an independent US laboratory. That's about 21 times the widely accepted limit." "The relatives of 20 Gambian children whose deaths were linked to toxic cough syrups made in India have sued Indian drugmaker Maiden Pharmaceuticals as well as local authorities in the West African country." Reuters. "The filing which has not yet been made public, opens a new front in the fight for compensation and justice after at least 70 children, mostly babies and toddlers, died from kidney injury last year." "A presidential task force has recommended the Gambian government to explore legal action against the Indian government, Maiden pharmaceuticals and a local drug importer for the deaths of 70 children last year due to kidney injury allegedly caused by India made cough syrup." ET. The Gambia is a small country in West Africa with an area of just 11,300 sq km and a population of about 2.5 million. wikipedia. The Indian state of Manipur has an estimated population of around 3.5 million in 2023 because there has been no national census since 2011, when the population was around 2.9 million. indiacensus.net. But, whereas the central government has been avoiding any discussion of the civil war in Manipur (NDTV), forcing the opposition to introduce a no-confidence motion (BBC), it had better take The Gambia seriously. Even if, "India's pharmaceutical exports this fiscal year are set to grow nearly twice as fast as last year to hit sales of $27 billion, driven by strong US buying, a government-backed trade body told Reuters, despite deaths linked to Indian-made cough syrups." It is not just in tiny The Gambia but, "The Indian manufacturer of eye drops linked to three deaths and serious infections in the US violated several safety norms, the country's top regulator has said." BBC. The drops were found to contain a rare strain of drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa never before found in the US. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been "increasing visits to Indian factories after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions last year. Inspectors detailed unsanitory conditions in manufacturing plants and poorly trained staff; shreded paperwork and under-investigated customer complaints; and evidence of exporting contaminated drugs to the US." DH. As is usual, the Indian government has not found any contamination in cough syrups sent to The Gambia but the WHO insists that 4 out of 23 samples tested were contaminated. The Wire. According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, "bilateral trade between India and Africa stood at approximately $98 billion in 2022-23." CII. That is a great reason to quickly settle with the grieving parents of the dead children. Already, "On average, 63 percent of Africans view China's economic and political influence as somewhat or very positive." cfr.org. Can we afford to lose out?

Ghazwa, but not in India.

"The forceful message conveyed to Kabul by the Corps Commanders Conference...captures the disappointment within the top brass over Afghanistan's unwillingness to stop the flow of militants across Pakistan's western border." Dawn. This followed an attack on a Pakistani army base by the Taliban on 12 July. "Pakistan's army said...it lost 12 soldiers in suspected militant attacks, including an assault on one of its bases. Nine soldiers were killed at the base which the Islamist militants stormed into armed with guns, hand grenades and rockets, the army and security officials said." Reuters. "A newly founded jihadist group called Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) claimed responsibility for the assault." A Jihad against the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (encyclopedia) is deliciously ironic indeed. Pakistan has been using the bloodthirsty notion of Ghazwa-e-Hind, which means conquering and converting the whole of India to an Islamic nation by force. wiktionary. "Ghazwa in Arabic implies a war that is guided by faith rather than materialistic or territorial gains and is widely attributed to an Islamic concept derived from the Hadiths - a set of sayings by Prophet Mohammad. The phrase is used to refer to Muslim warriors conquering the Indian subcontinent." ORF. Killing of 12 Pakistani soldiers is still less than the 17 Indian soldiers killed at Uri on 18 September 2016. "Militants have attacked an army base in Indian administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says. All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush." BBC. "Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is an alliance of militant networks formed in 2007 to unify opposition against the Pakistani military." dni.gov. "TTP leaders also publicly say that the group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan that would require the overthrow of the Pakistani government." That would mean the Taliban in control of nuclear weapons. "The Taliban were largely founded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) beginning in 1994; the ISI used the Taliban to establish a regime in Afghanistan which would be favorable to Pakistan, as they were trying to gain strategic depth." wikipedia. The depth of stupidity is infinite. The other stupid country is Pakistan's old friend the United States, which, in its panicked flight from Afghanistan in August 2021, CNN, left behind $7 billion worth of advanced weapons including aircraft, air-to-ground munitions, military vehicles, weapons, communication equipment and other materials. CNN. "Terrorists operating in the Kashmir valley have started using steel core bullets and Canadian night sights that were left behind by the American-led NATO alliance." India Today. "It is no secret that following the hurried withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban scavenged all the hardware left behind by their erstwhile foes and put it to use." Dawn. "They sow the wind, and reap the whirlwind". This was written before Ghazwa. 

Not just tomatoes.

"The world's most populous nation is more poorly endowed with farmland per capita than Greece or Algeria," wrote David Fickling. "India recently suspended exports of non-Basmati varieties of rice after heavy monsoon damaged crops that were due to be harvested in winter." Tomatoes were selling at Rs 200 per kg in Mumbai last weekend, prompting some stalls to close as there were no buyers. ET. Some farmers have sold their crops for over Rs 10 million as crops have been destroyed by excessive rains in other regions creating a shortage. ET. It is only just that profits should go to farmers. India is behind on transition to electric vehicles, because of shortage of charging facilities, and on renewable energy. "The government is running ahead of its 10% ethanol blending mandate and looks on track to hit 20% rate by 2025 as it seeks to trim its oil transport bill." But, "Sugarcane is a thirsty crop which needs a whole year or more to grow to maturity." Pulse cultivation has fallen by 0.8%. "According to HSBC Holdings Plc, the widespread cereal shortages in India could drive inflation higher in the country, even though the shock from vegetable prices is expected to ease." ET. "Costs of food items ranging from chilly to staples including pulses and rice, consumed by crores of people, are singeing Indians, who in any case have been shelling out more than Rs 100 per liter of petrol in many parts of the country." "It is clear that no country will suffer more from climate change this century than India, but no country is going to see its emissions grow faster over the coming decade," wrote Fickling. But how to reduce our emissions. "Electric vehicles (EV) don't run on fossil fuels," but the electricity required to charge these vehicles is largely produced from fossil fuels. "Further, in 2010-11, the country's generation capacity that depended on coal stood at 54%. It was down to 53% in 2020-21. In absolute terms, coal-based power capacity jumped from 93,918 megawatts to 202,675 megawatts," wrote Vivek Kaul. Electric cars and their batteries need a large number of minerals whose extraction and refining produce a lot of greenhouse gases. "The metals used both for ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and battery-electric ones make up 53% and 47% of the manufacturing carbon footprint according to the Greenpeace report," wrote Anjani Trivedi. China controls most of the essential minerals for manufacturing EVs. "China's Vital Material Co bought up a $600 million stockpile of obscure critical materials in early 2020," and now "holds the biggest share of the markets for selenium, tellurium, indium and bismuth" and is "in the top three for gallium and germanium." ET. Meanwhile, "Tata Sons plans to build a four-billion-pound ( about Rs 423 billion) electric vehicle factory in the UK." TOI. The British government has offered 500 million pounds worth of incentives "a figure that may turn out to be conservative once the full extent of support is known," wrote Matthew Brooker. We need renewable energy and EVs to reduce emissions, but the manufacture of these need fossil fuels. Looks difficult, like squaring the circle.

India is not a dirty word, sir.

"More than two dozen Indian opposition parties said...that they had formed an alliance called 'INDIA' to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in parliamentary elections next year." Reuters. 'INDIA' stands for 'Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance'. "The key objectives of INDIA are: Defeat the BJP in the 2024 general elections. Protect the Constitution of India. Promote inclusive development. Uphold secular values of India." TOI. "East India Company, Indian Mujahideen, Popular Front of India too have 'India' in name: PM launches attack on opposition." TOI. Just because some disreputable organisations have disguised themselves by using India in their names, it does not make 'India' a dirty word, Mr Modi. Perhaps you should read the words of the song 'Jis Desh Mein Ganga Behti Hai', and since the River Ganga is forever pure, so is India. The word 'India' is derived from the River Indus which was known as the Sindhu River in the Rig-Veda. World History Encyclopedia. "Neighboring Arabs, Iranians uttered 's' as 'h' and called this land 'Hindu'." The name ' Bharat' came either from an ancient tribe of Bharatas or from various kings called Bharat in the Mahabharata. wikipedia. The BJP is also part of an alliance known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which is supposed to consist of 38 parties. "Out of the alliance's current tally of 329 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP alone accounts for 301 seats. That means the remaining 37 parties have added only 28 seats to that aggregate." The word 'Democratic' is used mostly by dictatorships. There was the German Democratic Republic which was the communist East Germany. Now we have the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Algeria and North Korea. wikipedia. Just a couple of days back, "The Supreme Court today pulled up the Central government for failing to act against states ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party." "The SC said that while the Central government takes 'extreme stands' against other state governments, it does nothing against its own state governments which violate the Constitution." TN. Democratic indeed! "Humility does not come naturally to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi," wrote Nilanjan Mukherjee. "Electoral alliances are transactional for Modi, and seldom are there any great ideological bindings." "Pragmatism bordering on unprincipled pursuit of power is clearly the party's mantra now." "Wherever you go, India remains, for the most part, the same. Immorality is in the air. Politics sans morals." The Wire. "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet," wrote Shakespeare. So would excreta. India is forever fragrant. 'Democratic' is dubious.

Who is right?

"Number of entities, including individuals, who filed income tax returns increased by 6.18 percent in 2022-23 to over 7.40 crore (74 million), of which 5.16 crore (51.6 million) declared zero tax liability, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said." TOI. Which means that only 22.4 million entities, which probably means companies and individuals, paid income tax. "The government has taken several steps, like expansion of the scope of TDS/TCS (tax deduction at source/tax collection at source), simplification of personal I-T, prefiling of ITRs (income tax returns), updated returns, new form 26AS, and non-filers monitoring system, which has helped in adding taxpayers." India's population is about 1,430 million. worldometer. Which means the total number of non-filers would be 1,356 million. How much would it cost to monitor all of them? Politicians and bureaucrats in India unequivocally believe that millions of Indians are cheating on their taxes because they have convinced themselves that the Indian economy is booming and all the people are getting rich. "India has overtaken China as the most attractive emerging market (EM) for investing in EM debt, as per 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks." Mint. if that is the case, why is the yield on the benchmark 10 -year bond in India at 7.095%, while the yield of 10-year Indonesian bonds is over 70 basis points lower at 6.316%. investing.com. This, despite "Investments by Russian banks and companies in Indian government bonds underline challenges in converting rupees into roubles, which has hampered attempts to widen non-dollar denominated trade between the two nations." ET. "The size of the Indian economy will cross $4 trillion in 2024-25 and the per capita nominal GDP will also cross $2800, said an analysis conducted by industry body PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry." ET. "Amidst heightened global uncertainty the Indian economy has proved to be more resilient" because of "A conducive domestic policy environment, along with healthy performance of its key macroeconomic indicators have sustained the growth momentum of the Indian economy." said the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). However, "The latest Reuters poll of 53 economists taken between July 13 and 21 showed the Indian economy would grow 6.1% this fiscal year," but "Asked how the employment situation will change over the coming year, 17 of 25 economists said it will improve slightly." Reuters. "It was claimed that there was a 58 million increase in jobs between calendar years 2019 and 2022, the highest in Indian history over three years," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. But almost all the increase in jobs has been in agriculture which are poorly paying or non-paying. Mehrotra calculates, "The current government inherited about 10 mn unemployed; that number grew to 30 mn, we estimate, by 2019. Thanks to poor economic management during COVID-19, and a K-shaped recovery, open unemployment grew to 38 million by 2022 (PLFS)." If people are not working they are not earning. And if they have no income they cannot pay income tax. Whatever the chamchas say. 

Birth at baat.

"Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday (yesterday) said the government is willing to hold a discussion in Lok Sabha on the situation in Manipur." TOI. "At least 30 people have been killed in ethnic clashes in the north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, officials say." BBC on 6 May. "The violence began earlier this week after a rally by indigenous communities against moves to grant tribal status to the main ethnic group in the state. Mobs attacked homes, vehicles, churches and temples." "Around 10,000 people have reportedly been displaced." Instead of addressing the problem the government tried to suppress all information by banning internet in the state. On 8 July, more than two months after civil strife broke out, "Manipur High Court after an in-chamber hearing...ordered partial lifting of ban on internet services in the state." TOI. "Internet services across all platforms have been banned in the state since May 3." Last week, a video surfaced showing "two women being paraded naked by a mob" in Manipur on 4 May. BBC. On the same day two other women were gang-raped and murdered in the same state. Mint. "There are actually no studies or empirical evidence to suggest that internet shutdowns are effective against the spread of misinformation," wrote Tanmay Singh. "Manipur's chief minister, in a rare moment of honesty, stated in a TV interview that there are hundreds of similar incidents that have happened in the last 70 days, and that is the reason why the internet is banned." So, the ban has not stopped the atrocities from happening. Instead, "It is clear that the inability to effectively share and receive information from behind the iron curtain of Manipur is what allows the Manipur state authorities to evade accountability." Clearly, the internet shutdown was not for the security of citizens, but "The internet has been cut off in Manipur for more than two months for the security of the government." The offer of discussion by Mr Shah is a facetious evasion of responsibility. Prime Minister Modi's party, the BJP is in power in Manipur. wikipedia. Therefore, as prime minister and head of the BJP, Mr Modi should explain to the people of India, through the parliament, as to why nothing was done about the rapes and murders and who is responsible for the uncontrolled carnage. After all Mr Modi is an expert on making speeches. From May 2014 till October 2017, Mr Modi had delivered a staggering 775 speeches. ET. "Modi has made nearly 19 speeches every month since he became PM on May 26, 2014. This translates to two public speeches every three days." Most speeches were over 30 minutes. Mr Modi has delivered over 100 Mann Ki Baat (wisdom of the mind) speeches over the radio. PIB. At the 100th Mann Ki Baat event in Delhi, a woman went into labor and delivered a healthy baby boy. HT. Messianic stuff. Once there was the star of Bethlehem. wikipedia. Now the Magi was already there.