Borrowing to repay.

"Foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians (NRIs) have staged a sharp turnaround" "Since the implementation of the new RBI Swap Facility, FCNR(B) flows have totaled $17 billion in roughly 40 days, from June 8 to July 17, 2026." "As against $7,076 million of inflows in 2024-25, the FCNR(B) flows dipped to $946 million in 2025-26, a sharp fall of 87%." FE. May be a great start, but "HDFC Bank MD & CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan said potential inflows under the scheme may be lower than initially expected because tax rules make the 'borrowing to invest' option unattractive for many overseas Indians outside West Asia and Singapore." And "this could reduce the initial estimate of $60-80 billion in potential inflows." TOI. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has likely used part of the initial inflows from its foreign -currency deposit drive to unwind a portion of its massive foreign exchange forward book, economists said." "The RBI's net short dollar forward book stood at a record $106.6 billion as of May 31, reflecting its heavy use of forwards to cushion the rupee," and "Of this, nearly $29 billion was concentrated in near-tenor contracts maturing within three months." Reuters. Which means that the RBI has converted its short term borrowing to longer term, but probably at much higher interest rates. "Assume that an NRI takes a loan of 162 million yen loan at, say, 4% per annum," converts it to $1 million, and then invests it in an FCNR(B) account at around 6.5% interest for 3 or 5 years. The RBI covers the hedging cost of around 3% and swaps the dollars for rupees to inject liquidity into the system to bring down borrowing costs, wrote Madan Sabnavis. The RBI will have to pay from its foreign exchange reserves when these bonds mature. Despite the influx of around $20 billion, "The rupee has lost nearly 2% this month for the weakest performance among Asian peers," and hence, "The central bank's limited and intermittent intervention has surprised traders who expected stronger support after Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it would do 'whatever is required' to ensure orderly currency moves." "Internally, officials are divided over how aggressively the central bank should intervene to support the rupee, said three sources." Reuters. RBI's confusion is because of the flare up of the conflict between Iran and the US. "Daily vessel transits of the Strait of Hormuz were steady at three for each of the past three days, according to preliminary ship tracking data, amid continuing shipping risks in the Middle East as oil prices surged back to $100 a barrel." Reuters. The cost of India's basket of crude fell from $114.48 per barrel in April 2026 to $79.1 this month. ppac.gov.in. Brent crude is selling at $96.78 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The RBI must be unsure about how long the conflict will last and how high oil prices will climb, which will determine the drain on its forex reserves. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma said that the FCNR(B) scheme "does not address India's external-sector challenges and will effectively finance foreign investors' exits from Indian equities." MC. What is worrying is that the RBI is also monetizing the government's fiscal deficit which is absolutely not its responsibility. The RBI transferred a record Rs 2.78 trillion to the government as dividend from its surplus (ET) and has also bought government bonds (including treasure bills) in open market operations (OMO) to a total of Rs 21.34 trillion (wrote Sabanvis). The RBI is collecting both foreign and domestic debt. Will it pay back by printing rupees and selling gold? That'll be RIP. For the rupee.      

Not falling for the old con trick.

"For days the streets and parks in the center of India's capital have seethed with the biggest demonstrations it has seen in years," even as "they were met with police violence, struck with sticks and batons." CNN. If people in other parts of the world were unaware of Narendra Modi government's ferocity, they are now fully informed. "Nothing is more important than the welfare and future of our youth! We have decided to set up fast-track courts to ensure swift and stringent punishment for those involved in paper leaks," said Mr Modi. It is unbelievable that the prime minister is trying to con us with platitudes. Firstly, someone has to detect the leak of questions. "The PDF file containing the questions and answers for this year's medical entrance exam NEET" "was received via WhatsApp by the operator of a paying guest facility in Rajasthan's Sikar. Subsequently, the complainant, Shashikant Sukhar, had the contents of this file cross-verified through an associate." NDTV. Was the file sent accidentally to Mr Sukhar? If so, undetected leaks could be occurring in every exam. "At least 21 students have committed suicide because of the pressure of having to take the exam again. Reddit. Will your fast-track courts bring these children back? "Delhi Police took over people, many of them listed as 'bad characters', into preventive custody," "including non-students from Punjab, UP, Rajasthan and Haryana, were being mobilized to travel to the capital." Why can't non-students support the protests? Millions of taxpayer rupees are spent to bus people in to hear Mr Modi's speeches. The Wire. Do all them understand what he is saying? "A steady stream of food delivery riders carrying meals, snacks and bottled water is helping sustain a youth-led movement that has sprung up in the heart of India's capital." "From Kerala to the USA, orders are coming from everywhere," said rider Suraj Kumar. Reuters. These could be coming from non-students. Horror! According to an advisory, all shops, offices and restaurants must shut by 6.30 pm and mobile internet has been blocked in central Delhi, (TOI) possibly to prevent protesters from communicating with each other. But, this generation grew up on computers and the internet. "Intercepting or tracing Bluetooth-aided mesh messaging, allegedly used by protesters...may prove to be an extremely difficult task for Delhi Police." TOI. Delhi Metro has shut 17 stations near the protest site to prevent protesters from getting there. nowsonair.gov.in. At least four students have been treated for injuries caused by pellets. After 12 hours of running from one hospital to another, Sahil had a pellet removed from his right eye at AIIMS, with only 1% chance of recovery of vision, while Irshad Shaikh had multiple pellets removed from different parts of his body. TOI. When the matter of alleged police brutality, with video evidence, was raised in the Supreme Court, Chief Justice of India (CJI) Surya Kant said, "We are not interested in videos, we don't have time to watch..." "Don't waste our time We don't want to watch videos." ET. The CJI is not interested in evidence of criminal assault by the police causing grievous bodily harm on unarmed students. What, pray, is he interested in? The Supreme Court has just returned from its annual summer vacation stretching from 1 June to 12 July The Hindu. Who has the time to watch crucial evidence? The Supreme Court has 49,248 cases pending for over 1 year, 24,611 for over five years, 10,094 for over 10 years, 558 for over 20 years and 26 for over an incomprehensible 30 years. TIE. Because the court works for only 190-193 days a year. India Today. Mr Modi may feel that he can wait out the protesters. After all, people have to go to work. Not really, there is no work. According to the State of Working India report from the Azim Premji University, "Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 25% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than the less educated." BBC. They have the education to understand Mr Modi's con trick. They are angry. And, they have time.

Talk to the Iranians directly.

"Iran yesterday warned that if Tehran is prevented from selling oil, no other country in the region would be able to do so either, signaling the possibility of a broader disruption to energy supplies." Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, "the security of regional energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of US forces." ET. "On 8 April 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan." "On 21 April, President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. On 8 July, Trump announced that the ceasefire is over." wikipedia. This was because, "Despite the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached in June 2026," "Iran sought to assert hegemonic control over the strait and eventually collect fees on ships passing through." "It followed up on its threats by firing at multiple ships, including three commercial vessels on July 6-7." The US was forced to retaliate. Britannica. Iran may be overplaying its hand. "The Strait is valuable while the traffic through it increases day by day, not when it decreases," Ghalibaf said. Iran may cause problems in the short term but other Gulf states are already planning pipelines to bypass the strait. "Oil pipelines are straightforward engineering projects, and can be built at what feels like lightning speed compared with other infrastructure." "Abu Dhabi is already moving ahead; once its half-built new pipeline, with a capacity of about a 1.5 million barrels per day, enters operation by the end of 2027, it will reduce the amount of oil that needs to cross Hormuz to about 10.5 million barrels." ET. Despite Iran's efforts the international price of oil has not risen catastrophically. Because, "When the bombing began 41/2 months ago, the world was already awash in oil. Add to that the coordinated release of brimming reserves," and China staying on the sidelines. "Meanwhile, two major oil producers in the Middle East began to make more use of cross-desert pipelines that avoid the fraught strait altogether." ET. Iran's proxy, the Houthis, "who control areas near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the opposite end of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz, said on 20 July they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in what some analysts have viewed as a tactical move by Iran to seek leverage." Reuters. "At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a 'maritime embargo' against Saudi Arabia,...ship-tracking data show." BBC. The US has issued fresh sanctions targeting "Ali Ansari, an Iranian banker and businessman based in Dubai. "The Treasury said Ansari had diverted publicly funded wealth into an extensive overseas portfolio of real estate and commercial holdings to enrich himself, government elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)." Reuters. On 6 July, "Tens of millions of barrels of Iranian oil already on tankers have been left in limbo after the US walked back a waiver," and "There are around 63 million barrels of oil currently on the water, either in transit or idling, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Vortexa data." ET. Having killed over 30,000 civilian protesters in January 2026 (wikipedia), the hardliners in Iran might feel that they cannot afford to be seen to be yielding any advantage to the US. International pressure on the US will mount by the day, while they have nothing to lose. Has the US been talking to the Iranian people? If not, they should use a Persian Lord Haw-Haw, who was also an American (wikipedia) to tell Iranians over the radio how the hardliners are preventing peace and prosperity. The phrase Allahu Akbar means 'God is Greatest' (jibreel.app). When Mojtaba Khamenei claims to be Supreme Leader (wikipedia) he is making himself the equal to or greater than Allah. Which makes him an 'Al Murtadu' meaning an 'Apostate', and an apostate deserves the death punishment in Islam (islamqa.info). By killing Muslims the IRGC and Basij have become 'Takfiri'  (wikipedia) and also deserve to be punished. A few machine pistols and ammunition in the right hands could also help. The US should quickly win the war, instead of playing with firecrackers. Finish it. 

Drop the invitations.

"Indian activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, on hunger strike for the past 20 days in Delhi, has been forcibly removed from the protest site." "Videos from the protest site on Saturday showed chaos erupting just before 07.30 local time (02.00 GMT) when dozens of police and paramilitary personnel swooped in on the stage where the activist was lying down. Protesters who tried to stop them were pushed away." BBC. Indian police behaving like the Gestapo (wikipedia) at the behest of the government is common in India. Uttar Pradesh (UP) Police cremated the body of the Hathras gang rape victim in the middle of the night and beat up her family members, they alleged. BBC. Three of the four rapists have been found innocent while the fourth has been jailed on a lesser charge. NDTV. "Tribal families in Madhya Pradesh's (MP) Chhatarpur are protesting against the Ken-Betwa River Link Project through symbolic acts such as funeral pyre and noose protests, demanding justice." They fear for their livelihood. India Today. Needless to say the villagers have been removed forcibly by police, starting at 5 am.TOI. "Around a thousand Punjab farmers on their way to Delhi to take part in the Kisan Mahapanchayat protest against the proposed India-US trade deal were stopped at the Shambhu border yesterday as Haryana Police erected barricades." The Print. Yesterday, "Thousands have gathered again in the Indian capital Delhi a day after a police crackdown on supporters of India's Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), a youth-led movement seeking education reforms and resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan." On 20 July, Police had used baton charges and tear gas to prevent protesters marching to the Parliament to present their grievances. BBC. Pictures by Reuters show the young students being brutally beaten, police firing tear gas and dragging away some by force, with blood pouring down the faces of the protesters. Some are lying unconscious on the ground. Reuters. Police claim 180 of their comrades have been injured. Sadly, most Indians do not trust or believe the police, civil servants or politicians any more. Most terrifying, a photo by The Wire shows security personnel, shielding behind an armored personnel carrier, while aiming automatic rifles at unarmed protesters. Does it mean that, given the order, they will have no hesitation in slaughtering young students protesting against their lives and careers being destroyed by leaks of question papers? The BJP governs UP, MP, Haryana, Delhi and the Centre. "In an unfortunate incident, Times Now reporter Dev Kotak was assaulted by a large group of protesters at Delhi's Jantar Mantar on Tuesday, 21 July, amid ongoing demonstrations. Kotak claimed a mob of over 100 people attacked him." TN. Thankfully, Mr Kotak's photograph shows no injury or bruising, unlike what the protesters suffered. It could have been a false flag operation (Britannica) by Bhakts (devotees) who are the Basij Militia (Britannica) of the regime. On the other hand, Kanika Katiyar of NDTV was protected as the protesters formed a human wall around journalists, washed tear gas from their eyes and even provided face masks. India is classed as an electoral autocracy in a V-Dem report. The Wire. It is amazing that Western leaders preach sermons on democracy but keep inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to their countries, thereby legitimizing this corrupt, dictatorial regime. No need to say anything. Just drop him quietly. Say the time is not convenient. Hopefully, he will get the message. Once the tourism stops.  

A bagful of goodies.

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect on 15 July. In 2025, India recorded a GDP of USD 3.96 trillion, while the UK economy stood at USD 3.84 trillion, reflecting the significance of both economies on global trade. pib.gov.in. To put it into perspective, the US GDP at current prices stood at $30.77 trillion in 2025, that of the European Union (EU) stood at $21.24 trillion, while that of China stood at $19.5 trillion. World Bank. At best this is an agreement of minnows. Still, "The real significance of the Britain-India CETA is not that tariffs are coming down. It is that two increasingly complementary economies are creating the certainty that businesses need to invest, expand and build for the long term," wrote PD Singh. "India's economy remains on a sustained growth path supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, government officials said." "The government has maintained its emphasis on capital expenditure," so that "In April and May 2026, capital expenditure stood at Rs 2.51 trillion compared to Rs 2.21 trillion during the same period last year, registering a 14% jump." "In June 2026, gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 13.9% to Rs 1.95 trillion, compared to Rs 1.71 trillion in June 2025." HT. Since GST is a consumption tax, its rise hints at increasing consumer spending which could be a sign of increasing affluence. But it is causing financial problems for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). "Under Section 15 of the MSMED Act, 2006, buyers are legally obligated to settle vendor bills within 45 days if a written contract exists, or 15 days in its absence." Yet, "Large private entities and government bodies routinely stretch payment cycles to 90, 120 or 180 days." At the same time, "GST operates strictly on an accrual basis, not cash-flow basis. If an invoice is generated, the tax must be paid by the 20th of the next month," wrote Ajit Ranade. Naturally, this causes cash flow problems for MSMEs. Not surprising, "India has not featured among the world's 50 safest countries for investors in 2026, according to the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Score 2026 by Henley and Partners." BT. In 2025, India was ranked at an embarrassing 104th "showing moderate resilience but elevated risks. gktoday.in. The scary thing is that it is not just MSMEs that have cash problems, even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could get trapped in a problem of its own making. "Over the past two years, India's central bank built one of the world's largest bearish dollar bets to support a persistently weak rupee. It now faces the challenge of unwinding that position without destabilizing the currency market." "The book had ballooned to a record $106.7 billion in May, as per Bloomberg calculations based on RBI data." "To attract capital, the RBI has offered to fully cover hedging costs for banks raising three- to five-year foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians (NRI)." ET. NRIs will have to be paid back in foreign currency. In 2013, the rupee fell from 55 to one dollar in May to near 69 in August. Known as the 'Taper Tantrum'. Then governor of the RBI Raghuram Rajan mobilized $30 billion through an FCNR scheme. ET.  According to veteran investor Shankar Sharma, "During FY2013-14, foreign portfolio investors bought nearly $14 billion worth of Indian equities despite the taper tantrum. In contrast, they have sold about $26.5 billion worth of Indian equities so far in FY2026-27." Today, the RBI's FCNR(B) scheme will only fund the exit of foreign investors. MC. Trade agreements are seductive, promising a wealth of goodies. But, what will we export if MSMEs are failing and if the RBI runs out of money? Risks are definitely elevated. Stratospheric.           

Insecurity from security agreement.

"US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years," and "US retail sales rose modestly in June," as "Cheaper gas offered households some breathing room for discretionary purchases last month." "US consumer confidence rose in early June to a five-month high." "China's economy slowed more than expected in the second quarter," as "Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 4.3% from a year ago." ET. In the US, "The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% on a year-on-year basis, down from a 4.2% increase in May, said the Labor Department. ET. China's "Official GDP figures showed the world's second largest economy grew in the second quarter by 4.3%, below Beijing's annual target, and after a 5% rise in the first quarter." Exports jumped 27% year-on-year in June and new home prices contracted by 0.1%, BBC. After peaking in 2021, "China's share of global GDP has fallen in nominal terms from 18% to 16.5%, while the US share has risen to 26%." "In real terms, independent estimates now put China's growth closer to zero than to the official target of 4.5-5%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. China's total debt has risen to 350% of GDP, but is still pushing new debt into manufacturing industries, replacing the property bubble with a new one. "Net foreign direct investment is negative. Last year, a record $425 billion in capital flowed out of Chinese financial markets." And, "The number of Western expats living in China has fallen markedly." Beijing is dumping its manufactured goods on the rest of the world, so the backlash is growing. Perhaps to divert people's attention from a deteriorating economy, Beijing is resorting to threatening Taiwan. "Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence on Monday (today) detected two sorties by PLA aircraft, seven PLAN vessels and one official ship operating around its territory." "Meanwhile yesterday, the MND said that it detected 10 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN vessels and 3 official ships operating around Taiwan." TOI. Apparently, Taiwan is preparing a "hellscape" strategy to stop  a Chinese invasion that seems to  concentrate on an attack by the Chinese Navy and occupation forces but how will it deal with an overwhelming aerial assault? mwi.westpoint.edu. "Taiwan must work together to protect its democracy and not become a part of China, President Lai Ching-Te said yesterday, calling on members of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to oppose the 'red terror' coming from Beijing." Reuters. Bound to infuriate the Chinese barbarians. Meanwhile, China's "sweeter than honey" Iron Brother Pakistan (CIIS) is realizing that the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SDMA) with Saudi Arabia, signed on 17 September 2025 (wikipedia) may actually incur some action. "Attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis this week have frustrated Pakistan and threaten to draw Islamabad into the conflict, complicating any future role it may have as a mediator between the United States and Iran." "Pakistan's frustration appears rooted in growing concerns that Houthi involvement may be more likely to draw Pakistan into the conflict," as "Pakistani soldiers are deployed near the Saudi border with Yemen, two Pakistani officials said, increasing their direct exposure." Reuters. Couple of days back, "Saudi Arabia has renewed its condemnation of Iranian attacks targeting civilian and vital infrastructure, including a power generation facility and water desalination plant in Kuwait." Gulf News. What if Arab states decide enough is enough and declare an all out war against Iran? Pakistan has a 909 km (565 miles) border with Iran. wikipedia. Will it be forced to fight across its own border? Security agreement could lead to insecurity. Perhaps, the 'Iron Brothers' will rust away. Good for us.    

Promises must be kept.

On 2 July, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi held Annual Summit-level talks with his Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi in New Delhi," which "provided an opportunity for both sides to review and strengthen the full spectrum of bilateral cooperation as well as exchange of views on regional and global issues of mutual interest." newsonair.gov.in. "Within hours of India and Japan unveiling a series of agreements on defence, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, energy security and economic resilience, Beijing cautioned that cooperation between countries should not target a third party," meaning "China's economic, strategic and military interests." ET. India-Nippon bhai (brother) bhai? Maybe not. In December 2015, "Japan will provide $12 billion of soft loans to build India's first bullet train, the two nations announced during a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that also yielded deeper defence ties and a plan for civil nuclear cooperation." NDTV. Sadly, former Japan's vice minister of economy, trade and industry Hideki Makihara "alleged in a social media post on July 15 that the Indian side's 'sheer recklessness' stood out during meetings and negotiations on the project and New Delhi did not 'keep promises'." "The minister in charge was especially awful - if the top guy's like that, there's no way to have any decent dealings," he said. A Japanese engineer based in India, Isao Tsujimura "contended that India was opting for European-origin signalling equipment and a new Indian high-speed train to launch the first section," which will be incompatible and that "India's Shinkansen project will almost certainly end up being a pipe dream." HT. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has said the Bullet Train Project is generating significant employment and will provide additional opportunities during operation." newsonair.gov.in. The hon'ble minister seems confused about what a train is for. The sole purpose of any train must be to transport passengers in complete safety, comfort and on time.  As is to be expected, India's External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, "It is an individual opinion and at considerable variance with facts." Which means the Japanese minister is lying, but Hideki had already said, "They just don't keep promises, no matter what." Which means Indians lie habitually. NDTV. Seems that Mr Hideki 'got his retaliation in first' (wikipedia). "Sheer recklessness" can be very costly. "Barely a decade after abandoning the original deal for 126 twin-engine Dassault Rafale fighters under the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is believed to have finalized a Letter of Request (LoR) to France for the acquisition of 114 of the same aircraft type for the IAF (Indian Air Force)." Incompetently, "Eight years after being scrapped by the BJP-led Union government in 2016," what was "a $10-12 billion contract MMRCA program for 126 Rafales, with extensive industrial participation and technology transfer to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. for the local manufacture of 108 aircraft," will now cost $40 billion, nearly four times as much, "despite involving far fewer aircraft and a far less defined industrial framework." The Wire. Such haphazard work is common. After just 79 days, "The Delhi-Dehradun Expressway, built at a cost of Rs 120 billion, has developed large potholes,...with videos of the damaged road going viral on social media." ET. Good thing we have changed our delusion from 'Vishwaguru' (teacher to the world) to 'Vishwamitra' (friend of the world) (Lowy institute). But, does anyone want to be friends with us? Dicey.   

Playing with percentages.

"Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before edging up to 2.8% in 2027, with India also set to 'lose a step' amid broader moderation in activity, according to a Moody's Analytics report." "The report said the artificial intelligence investment cycle has emerged as the biggest counterweight  to the global slowdown." But, it has created a " 'K-shaped world economy' where countries and industries integrated into the technology value chain continue to outperform those grappling with higher energy costs and weaker demand." ET. "According to China's GDP growth report,...the country's economy expanded by 4.3% in the April-June quarter." ABP. Whereas, India's GDP grew at 7.8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (January-March 2026) and by 7.7% in the full financial year 2025-2026. NDTV. India continues to remain one of the largest importers of Chinese goods. China's GDP at current prices was $19.5 trillion in 2025 (WB), so 4.3% of that comes to about $839 billion, while India's GDP at current prices was $4 trillion in 2025 (WB) and 7.8% of that would be $312 billion, less than half of what China added to its economy. India has helped generously. Our trade deficit with China was $116 billion in 2025-26 and will be higher this year. "In the first half of 2026, India's imports from China touched a record $79.41 billion." The Wire. The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect three days ago. "By granting zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of trade value, the CETA is expected to strengthen India's exports competitiveness." In 2025-26, India's merchandise exports to the UK was $13.44 billion, while imports were $11.68 billion giving a surplus of $1.765 billion. In services, India exported worth $21.66 billion and imported $13.78 billion, giving a surplus of $7.88 billion. pib.gov.in. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), argues that while "free trade agreements (FTAs) can enable market access, they are no substitute for a strong manufacturing base." "India must shift its focus from tariff negotiations to domestic competitiveness." Imports from our newer FTA partners, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland are rising twice as fast as exports because developed economies already maintain low import tariffs. ET. "This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s." "A chunk of this outflow from India is 'brain drain', including skilled workers and university students, exactly the talents India needs to compete in advanced fields." At the same time foreign direct investment (FDI) has been weak. FDI has surged to 4% of GDP in Vietnam, but "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India, and it is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average," wrote Ruchir Sharma. In addition, "India's R&D expenditure remains structurally low. In 2023, it stood at 0.6% of GDP,...and has been stuck in a narrow 0.6-0.9% for more than three decades." South Korea and Israel spend 4% of GDP, the US spends 3.5% and China spends 2.6%. "India's industrial R&D expenditure in 2023 was $7.4 billion." Nvidia spends about that much while Alphabet spends five times as much, wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. All of this means that the Indian economy is unable to create jobs. "The Union government had inherited a youth unemployment rate (UR) of 2.2% (2012 data). By 2017-18, this tripled to 6.1%, the highest in 45 years. The youth UR also tripled to 18% over that period." Shockingly, 40% of all youth (15-29 years) in the workforce are unpaid family labor," wrote Profs Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. GDP is growing and so are unemployment and trade deficits. Which to celebrate?    

Dust saves lives.

"As Europe grapples with intense summer heat waves and temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius in several countries," one Indian wondered why the fuss, when we see temperatures up to 48 Celsius. Climate policy expert Siddharth Singh explained that European cities such as Paris are situated at higher latitudes and summer days are longer than in India. Also, "India's atmosphere often contains higher levels of suspended particulate matter, which can scatter sunlight and alter how heat is experienced. However, Europe has clearer skies, which makes direct sunlight feel more intense." News 18. A study by Piyush Narang and Ashok Gadgil from the India Energy and Climate Center at the University of California Berkley, US found that, "One day of extreme heat causes about 3,400 excess deaths across India, while a five-day heat wave causes nearly 30,000." But, "granular spatial-temporal data data on how heat waves affect mortality in India's districts remain inaccessible to common researchers." NDTV. If it wasn't for dust in the air millions could die. So, more pollution could save more. According to the Delhi Jal Board, Delhi's drains contribute 76% more wastewater to the Yamuna River than previously estimated. "The estimate of wastewater flow in the 22 drains that enter Yamuna along the stretch between Wazirabad and Okhla has been revised from 750.4 million gallons per day (mgd) in May 2025 to 1324.4 mgd in May 2026." HT. "It is expected that AI infrastructure will consume water roughly equal to annual domestic needs of 1.3 billion people as well as 945 terawatt-hours of electric power by 2030." "Currently, almost 600 million Indians face high to extreme water stress, and more than 21 major cities face a threat of groundwater depletion." "In 2031-2032, the electricity demand from data centers alone will be 13.56 GW," wrote Prof Debulal Thakur. Less water, more dust, less heatstroke, it's for our good. "The just-released sixth National Family Health Survey shows that India's child malnutrition rate was at a substantial 32% in 2023-24," "far higher than sub-Saharan Africa's 20%-22% levels." Severe wasting (too thin for height) for children under five is at 19%. TNIE. Of course, water is essential for growing food. To save money on importing petroleum, 20% mixture with ethanol has been made mandatory in India. "It aims at improving energy security, supporting farmers, and reducing environmental impact through greater use of domestically produced renewable fuel." pib.gov.in. Righteous! And so, water and land are diverted from food to ethanol. Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari "rejected allegations of a conflict of interest and personal gain over his push for the ethanol blending program." "He told TOI that his sons' business had a small share of ethanol and their contribution to the overall kitty was meager." TOI. The share may be meager now but the Minister "has officially approved the regulations for E100 fuel, paving the way for vehicles that can run on 100% ethanol." NDTV. From 20% to 100% is a jump of 500% in business. Clever. The dangers are multiplying. "Higher incentive for ethanol is reshaping cultivation and raising water stress. Food grains have overtaken sugarcane as ethanol feedstock, risking food security. Farmers are shifting to maize and away from pulses, oilseeds and other cereals." BT. In a little ray of hope, "In what could be a landmark decision, the Raipur District Consumer Redressal Commission has ruled in favor of a vehicle owner who alleged that the use of ethanol-blended petrol (E20) damaged his vehicle." DH. If it reaches the Supreme Court it will be definitely overturned. So, there it is. Indians may die from thirst or hunger, but dust will reduce deaths from heatstroke. Depend on the 'mai baap sarkar'.    

Factory in the UK.

 China's control over the supply of lithium is an opportunity for Offgrid Energy Labs whose "ZincGel platform is built on zinc-bromine chemistry, which the founders say offered the best balance of safety, longevity and commercial viability for stationery energy storage." "Today, its manufacturing facility is in the UK, while its technology - developed through years of R&D in India - is being stationed for applications ranging from AI data centers to renewable energy storage." ET. It is wonderful that the technology was invented in India but it is concerning that the company chose the UK for its manufacturing factory. One reason may be a lack of workers. "Every weekday morning at 6.30 am in India's factory clusters - Manesar, Noida, Dholera, Hosur and many more -" factory supervisors "reach out to the local labor contractors to round up as many workers as possible, depending on the day's shortage on the factory floor." But they do not get as many as they want. "Gig jobs offer faster earnings, more autonomy and daily payouts, even when the overall cost to the company is lower." Factory wages, when factored for inflation, have not increased in a decade, wrote Megha Mandavia. In April, "factory workers (in Noida, UP) blocked roads, demanding higher wages and better working conditions." "They earn between Rs 10,000 and Rs 15,000 a month - wages that have remained largely unchanged for years." They had almost nothing left after paying for rent and food and were upset after Haryana increased wages by 35%. BBC. "They were paying me Rs 15,000 a month. I was working 12 hours, six days a week." "I can make that same money by making and selling clay diyas in my village," said 20-year-old Raj Prajapati. In 2024, Russia granted 72,000 work permits to skilled workers from India. Despite the war with Ukraine, workers are drawn by wages of up to $700 (Rs 63,000) per month to work in Russia, wrote Devina Sengupta. "Romania has expressed its readiness to create a pathway to employ 30,000 skilled Indian professionals every year." newsonair.gov.in. Romania has a population estimated at 19 million and a GDP of $950.384 billion. wikipedia. India's GDP at current prices is $4.15 trillion (4,150 billion), but GDP per capita is a paltry $2,810. IMF. India is the fastest growing economy in the world. The IMF's World Economic Outlook Update projects India to grow at 7% in this calendar year and at 6.4% in the next. newsonair.gov.in. But, "During the 1990s, every percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly 0.41% growth in formal employment. By early 2026, that employment elasticity had plummeted to 0.01%. In plain terms: economic growth is no longer a labor sponge." "This is the '0.01 trap' - a state where the economy can double in size while people's well-being does not improve," wrote Ejaz Ghani. "According to the latest World Bank report, India's PCI (per capita income) of $2,760 places it at 139th out of 182 countries, and firmly within the 47 lower-middle-income countries (LMICs, PCI between $1,136 and $4,495)." Bangladesh is $2,840, Bhutan $4,310 and the Maldives $12,950. Sri Lanka recently moved to the upper-middle-income group ($4,496-$13,935) and the Maldives will soon move into the high-income club. India fell from the 'lowest thirties' to the 'lowest forties' during the previous 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government and is stuck at the 'lowest forties' after 12 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. And yet, OffGrid Energy Labs invented its new battery technology in India but set up its factory in the UK. Why? In 2024, a social media platform LocalCircles reported that 66% of businesses resorted to paying bribes in the previous 12 months to get their work done. 54% were forced to pay bribes and 46% did so voluntarily. TOI. Maybe, that's why they left. Our youth lost.     

Bowing to foreigners.

"India's retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June as elevated food and fuel prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and concern over an uneven monsoon kept price pressures firm. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading breached the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium term inflation target of 4% after 17 months." "Retail food inflation stood at 5.32% in June compared with 4.78% in May." And "Transport inflation accelerated to 4.31% in May." ET. In March, "India's federal government...retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2%-6%, according to an official notification. The target will remain in place for five years." Reuters. "India's wholesale inflation quickened to 9.87% in June from 9.68% in May" driven by food, mineral oils, basic materials and chemicals and chemical products. ET. Near double digit increase in input costs will feed into the broader economy. Transport inflation is waiting. "Much commentary on the West Asia crisis has focused on what consumers pay at the pump," but "Fuel costs for fleet operators, raw material costs for small manufacturers, and gas prices for processing units have risen substantially. Some have been passed on. A meaningful part has not." "At household-level the impact is not yet visible." "When it does, second-order effects begin to show up. Household budgets will face pressure, discretionary consumption could soften." DH. In June, the RBI projected CPI inflation at 5.1% for the financial year 2026-27, from its earlier forecast of 4.6% (DH) but chose to hold its interest rate at 5.25%. Despite its mandate of targeting 4%, the RBI's recent record indicates that it actually set itself a target of 6% for its monetary policy. Starting October 2019, the inflation rate was well above 4% till February 2025, falling to a low of 0.4% in October, before starting to accelerate from February 2026. rateinflation.com. The RBI brazenly held its interest rate at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 (shriram- finance.in) even as inflation was raging at above 7% and was forced to act in panic after the US Federal Reserve started hiking its Funds Rate aggressively from May 2022 (Forbes). "India's exports rose 15.5% year-on-year to $40.41 billion in June, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $30.43 billion," because '"crude oil imports jumped 40% to $19.32 billion during the month, the country's overall merchandise imports in June went up by about 31% to $70.84 billion." DH. "India's exports to the US dipped 1.21% to USD 8.17 billion in June, while imports grew 33.86% year-on-year to USD 5.5 billion, according to government data." ET. Our exports to the US fell even as "US consumer spending accelerate in May even as prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, suggesting Americans are powering through the fallout from the Iran war." ET. High inflation should push bond yields higher but "India's long bond yields have stayed remarkably placid through it all. Part of the explanation is deliberate engineering." The RBI has allowed banks to offer higher interest rates on non-resident foreign currency (FCNR) accounts while the government has scrapped withholding and capital gains tax on foreign holders of government bonds, hoping to draw over $50 billion from overseas and ease the pressure on the rupee. This will help the RBI not to increase interest rates. Meanwhile, household debt has risen to 45.5% of GDP, of which 58.4% is comprised of credit cards, personal loans and gold loans. "The biggest beneficiary of this low-rate regime is not the stressed household. It is the biggest borrower in the room, the government." "Signs of rising defaults in the small loans segment aren't surprising," wrote Ajit Ranade. Is the RBI the Reserve Bank of India the central bank for Indians, the cooperative bank for the government or the private bank for the BJP? Indians would like to know why we are borrowing to survive? Enemy within? 

Intelligence is the key.

On 11 July, "The US military said it hit 140 Iranian military targets in its third round of strikes this week, following an attack on a merchant ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it fired a warning shot at a ship and declared the waterway closed." CNN. In response, "US President Donald Trump yesterday declared a resumption of the American blockade on Iranian ports, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and saying Washington would be 'reimbursed' for doing so to the tune of 20% on all cargo traversing the passageway. Meanwhile, Iran shot at two ships attempting to cross the strait, and American airstrikes reportedly killed two people in southwestern Iran." The Times of Israel. In 2025, "The Israeli military said it has accumulated in recent months intelligence showing that 'concrete progress' had been made 'in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb', including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion." One Kelsey Davenport said that "some of Iran's activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponisation work." BBC. It is a fact that Israel's intelligence from within Iran is far superior to what the US can achieve. On 31 July 2024, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an IRGC guesthouse after attending the inauguration ceremony of the present President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. "Wasim 'Abu Anas' Abu Shabaan, Hnaiyeh's personal aide and bodyguard was also killed." According to one report, the assassination was carried out by Mossad agents on the ground. wikipedia. On 13 June 2025, Israeli jets "descended on Tehran in an operation they called 'Red Wedding'." "Hours later and 1,000 miles away (from Israel) Iran's top military commanders were dead." "The combination of intelligence information and military precision that enabled the attack surprised people around the world." "Another key part of the initial attack - considered so fantastic by even its planners that it was called 'Operation Narnia' after the fictional CS Lewis series -successfully killed nine top Iranian nuclear scientists almost simultaneously in their homes in Tehran." WSJ. "For years, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was little more than a name in classified reports." He was believed to be the mastermind behind Iran's plans to acquire a nuclear weapon, called 'Project Amad'. "On 27 November 2018, Fakhrizadeh was traveling with his wife and bodyguards toward their villa in the town of Absard, east of Tehran." "Waiting by the roadside was a pickup truck, seemingly abandoned. Hidden within it, was a 7.62 mm FN MAG machine gun, rigged with facial recognition AI, satellite links and explosives. No agents were on the ground." Fakhrizadeh was shot dead, his wife beside him was unhurt. "Seconds later, the truck exploded." The truck had been smuggled in pieces and assembled inside Iran. NDTV. On 31 January 2018, Mossad agents broke into a secret warehouse in the Kahrizak District of southern Tehran and "pilfered 100,000 documents, including paper records and computer files documenting the nuclear weapons work of Iran's AMAD Project between 1999 and 2015." wikipedia. It is amazing that all the Israelis were able to escape from Iran with half-a-ton of material without being caught. Obviously, the regime is so hated that Israel has been able to establish a network of informers and helpers throughout Iran. Instead of indiscriminate bombing, which is only increasing public support for the Iranian regime, the US should target the Ayatollahs, IRGC commanders and Basij commanders and their homes. Don't kill them. Don't let them sleep. Their families will force them to surrender. The Israelis know how. Strike a deal after winning the war. Let Israel lead. Support it. 

US down at 24th.

"Markets can recover from a bad quarter. Political upheaval, runaway inflation or weak institutions are much harder to hedge against." "A new global ranking shows that when safety is the priority, Europe dominates the list - while the United States falls well behind." "Singapore is the only non-European country to make the top 10." The US ranks 24th. BT. This 24th country has gone back to Pacific Command eight years after renaming it Indo-Pacific Command. "The announcement came hours before Mr Modi's engagement with Trump (on the margins of G7), a meeting many described as noticeably less warm than the embraces that once characterised the leaders' relationship. Gone are the stadium rallies and bear hugs." TOI. Back home, veteran Congress leader Pawan Khera told reporters "Let our government come to power. When we recount these 12-15 years, BJP leaders won't be able to step out without security." "People can see the media is being silenced, the organisations are being hijacked, how the Election Commission is in their (BJP's) pocket, how they have trampled the ED and CBI under their feet, how signatures are being forged and how democracy is being mocked." "It is already being documented." DH. A fascist government is unsafe and so are its projects. At Mira-Bhayandar in Mumbai a new four lane double-decker flyover, built at a cost of Rs 1 billion, suddenly narrows to two lanes, without any warning or signage. "In Bhopal, the Rs 180 million Ashbagh Railway overbridge went viral for its dangerously sharp 'near 90-degree turn'. In Lucknow, a railway overbridge appeared to run straight into a house. In Nagpur, images of the Indora-Dighori flyover almost slicing through a balcony at Ashok Chowk sparked outrage. The projects quickly became national memes." HT. "Ever since 2014, when the blissful era of Amrit Kaal began, it is said that the nation has been spared the shame and disgrace of corruption in high places." Now, "We simply do not notice corruption, we do not recognize corruption, we do not report corruption. No reports, no corruption. No intrepid editors, no crusading anchors." Millions have been stolen from the Ayodhya Ram Temple (BBC), the Enforcement Direectorate (ED) has settled 150 cases under the dreaded Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) for modest fines with permission from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) used AI-generated non-existent material, a Muslim High Court judge received death threats for finding 14 cow-vigilante men guilty of lynching a Muslim man (BBC) and the Bombay HC asked if all citizens are being made slaves of Indian govt., wrote Harish Khera. There is deep suspicion among Indians about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), which was only deepened by the Supreme Court's refusal to allow an independent audit of the machines (BS). "The 124 FAQs published by the Election Commission of India (ECI) apparently dispel all doubts about the efficacy of machine-based voting. But deeper probing throws up more questions," wrote Venkatesh Nayak. Finally, if anyone is branded a criminal the police often eliminate him in a staged shooting incident, euphemistically known as 'encounters'. In seven years to September 2024, the UP police gunned down 207 criminals, many of whom carried cash rewards. TOI. We don't know India's position on the list of safe countries for investors. Could be embarrassing.

Following Marx.

"A growing middle class - larger, wealthier and more globally connected than ever before - is increasingly spending on goods and services priced directly or indirectly in dollars. International holidays, overseas education, AI subscriptions, streaming platforms, premium electronics, imported luxury products and even fuel consumed through greater mobility all carry a foreign exchange footprint." Also, "RBI data show that remittances for studies abroad exceeded $2.3 billion in FY26, while another $450 million was remitted under travel for education." ET. "As incomes rise for affluent households, they are increasingly spending on travel, fine dining and curated experiences such as concerts and well-being retreats, even as they continue to purchase high value premium goods." "Three in four wealthy Indians now make at least one high-end purchase every quarter, while one in four buys something premium every two weeks," wrote Sowmya Ramasubramanian & Neethi Lisa Rojan. At the same time, "By 2025-26, more than 15 states had unconditional cash transfer schemes for women, costing roughly Rs 1.7 trillion and reaching nearly 120 million beneficiaries." These schemes led to increased savings, increased spending, "though not enough to exhaust the income gain", increased spending on education and also helped the male members of the household. "Thus, total household welfare improved for everyone," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Shagishna K. India's "Net FDI (foreign direct investment) was weak all through 2025-26," India's corporate sector has been investing overseas, and "India's merchandise trade deficit (the excess of goods imports over goods exports) for 2025-26 was at $333.2 billion, widening 17.5% from 2024-25." Consumer demand has stagnated and "Capacity utilization for the 1000-odd units surveyed by RBI has been frozen around 75% for a prolonged period." "The solution, therefore, has to be austerity for the rich and a safety net for the vulnerable," wrote Rajrishi Singhal." "The International Monetary Fund (IMF)...marginally lowered India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.4% from 6.5% projected in April, while highlighting that India remains among the world's fastest-growing major economies." ET. But, "Given wages (after inflationary erosion is accounted for) have not grown across livelihoods, households have been forced to meet consumption expenses through borrowings." "By utilizing short-term but expensive debt to fund immediate survival, the working class effectively borrows from its future financial security to keep current domestic consumption afloat," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan & Srisoniya Subramanian. Education does not guarantee a stable income. "According to the State of Working India report, graduate unemployment for the 15-25 age group is hovering near 40%." "India's elite, hemmed in by its own risk aversion and stifling bureaucratic controls, has shown little ambition to build the kind of mass-employment manufacturing base that could provide an alternative," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Substituting subsidies instead of salaried income induces the government to resort to tax terrorism. Indians are concerned "That the taxman will send them a demand for an arbitrary sum when they least expect it." "The numbers seem to partly justify this suspicion: When these disagreements go to court. the government wins less than 8% of the time," wrote Mihir Sharma. It's a winning formula for politicians. Boast loudly about the growth rate, even if it is jobless, and distribute handouts to win elections. "What parties promise with flourish is not their money; it is public revenue." "The taxpayer funds the pool; the political class allocates it; the gratitude accrues to the allocator. It is your money; it becomes their mandate." TNIE. While dismissing religion as "Opium of the people" (wikipedia), Karl Marx had no hesitation in borrowing from the New Testament when he propounded his dictum: "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs (wikipedia)." Thankfully, Marxism has been a miserable failure. Indian politicians seem to be following Marx's footsteps. The result will be no different.    

Diverted to markets.

"According to NSDL data, India's mutual funds industry now controls Rs 76.41 trillion in assets under custody, slightly ahead of FIIs at Rs 76.22 trillion." "This marks the first time domestic funds have surpassed foreign investors in overall holdings." This is because SIP (systematic investment plans) have increased to a record Rs 320.87 billion in March 2026. "Annual SIP investments hit Rs 3.34 trillion in 2025, up from Rs 2.68 trillion in 2024, according to AMFI data." msn.com. "Mutual fund SIP inflows rose by Rs 8.27 billion or 3% month-on-month to Rs 317.81 billion in June, from Rs 309.54 billion in May." "SIP assets stood at Rs 17.70 trillion," and "The number of Contributing SIP accounts stood at 97.83 million in June 2026." ET. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are a far cry from turning bullish on Indian shares, with the recent buying in the cash market attributable to the closing out of reverse arbitrage (arb) positions rather than fresh market buying, per market experts." "Reverse arb, the opposite of arbitrage, involves purchasing stock futures and selling the underlying stock to lock in the spread." Mint. "Arbitrage refers to the practice of simultaneously buying and selling the same asset in different markets to profit from price discrepancies." "Arbitrage opportunities are usually short-lived because markets adjust rapidly." bajajfinserve.in. "Corporate India's recent balance sheet numbers confirm that," "Even as profits recover, they are investing in financial assets at twice the rate at which they invest in factories and machinery. The shift underscores corporate caution as subdued demand, moderate capacity utilization, and geopolitical volatility keep a much-awaited broader private investment cycle on hold," wrote Abhinaba Saha & Niti Kiran. Demand is subdued because households are losing confidence in the economy. The Urban Consumer Confidence Survey by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that "the Current Situation Index has fallen for the third consecutive round, down to 90.7 from 95.7 just two months earlier." The Rural Index has fallen to 95.2. Anything below 100 is negative. TNIE. "Experts are of the opinion that making an investment just for the sake of it is not a good idea." Investors err when they invest without a defined goal, chase recent performances (recency bias, wikipedia), underestimate valuation and risk, churn their portfolios too often and do not respect asset allocation. Mint. Perhaps, people are being forced by the RBI to gamble on the stock markets because they are losing money in banks. In its last meeting in June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI held its interest rate at 5.25%. NDTV. "Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May 2026 was 3.93%." pib.gov.in. This means the real interest rate works out to 1.32%. "Consumer inflation, measured by the annual change in the CPI is expected to have quickened to 4.3% in June from 3.93% in May, economists forecast in the poll conducted July 3-9." Reuters. Which means a meager real interest rate of 0.95%. Since bank interest is taxable as income, the returns on bank deposits are deeply negative. People are gambling to protect the value of their savings. In the last fortnight in June, bank deposits grew by 2.7% to a total of Rs 265.4 trillion, while banks credit or advances jumped 18.6% to Rs 219.3 trillion. TOI. "Analysts warned that the widening gap between loans and deposits has pushed the banking system's loan-to-deposit ratio to one of its highest levels in more than a decade, raising concerns over funding sustainability." ET. Consumers have little confidence in the economy and bank deposits. Companies are shy of investing. The RBI is channeling money into stocks. Will the markets drag everything down. The RBI will have to explain.

It's a stalemate.

"US President Donald Trump has repeated his claim of settling the conflict between India and Pakistan, adding that 11 jets were shot down during the four-day hostilities in May last year." "India has consistently denied any third-party intervention." "Trump said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif credited him with saving 30 to 50 million lives by stopping the Indo-Pak conflict." ET. Three days ago, US Attorney Bill Essayli announced charges against the leader of an Indian criminal group in connection with the assassination of a Sikh leader. "He spoke alongside officials of the Los Angeles Police Department, the FBI and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police." "Lawrence Bishnoi, 33, and his childhood friend Satinderjeet Singh are accused of orchestrating the assassination of a well-known Sikh independence activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar." ABC. Nijjar was shot on 18 June 2023 in the parking lot of the Guru Nanak Singh Gurdwara in British Columbia in Canada. Then Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau blamed the Indian government for the killing, which was followed by tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats from both countries and relations between India and Canada dropping to its lowest point. wikipedia. This is extremely odd. Why is a US lawyer announcing charges in a crime that occurred in Canada? Has Canada ceded jurisdiction on crimes committed on its soil to the US, or is the US attempting to create a rapprochement between India and Canada? If so, who gains? "According to a report submitted by Canada's auditor general to parliament..., the share of Indians in the country's incoming international student population was just 8.1% in September 2025 - a sharp drop from 51.6% in 2023." "Study permit rejections rose from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024 in Canada according to ICEF Monitor, which focuses on international student mobility." "So the question has shifted from how to go to Canada to whether to go at all." BBC. Lawrence Bishnoi, born Balkaran Bishnoi, has been incarcerated in Sabarmati Jail in Gujarat, India since 28 August 2023. "According to sources, Bishnoi is being held in complete isolation from other inmates." And yet, he is apparently able to run his criminal empire from behind bars. TNIE. Bishnoi's friend Goldie Brar is thought to have ordered the murder of Punjabi rap singer Sidhu Moose Wala. "Not much is known about Brar, apart from the fact he is on the Interpol Red Corner list, and is a key operative in a network of gangsters operated by Bishnoi." "It is thought Brar emigrated to Canada" where "he initially worked as a truck driver." BBC. While taking on the Nijjar case from Canada, the US is yet to conclude the alleged plot to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, with dual citizenship of the US and Canada living in New York, also in 2023. TOI. Indian national Nikhil Gupta was arrested from Prague in the Czech Republic on 30 June 2023 and extradited to the US. On 13 February 2026, Gupta confessed to offering $15,000 to a hitman, who happened to be an undercover Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent, to kill Pnnun. The Wire. The US named former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav as Nikhil Gupta's handler. Yadav has been charged with abduction and extortion of a city-based businessman. In August 2025, a non-bailable warrant was issued by Additional Sessions Judge Saurabh Partap Singh "against Yadav after he failed to appear before the court despite repeated summons in the alleged kidnapping and extortion case." "On 24 March this year, a court had granted Yadav an exemption from personal appearance on his bail plea citing threat to his life after his personal details were made public." TOI. Brilliantly done. Since crimes in India take precedence over US charges and since court cases can, and do, continue for decades in India, Yadav can lead a normal life without having to appear for hearings. That also prevents one of our intelligence officers from being interrogated by US justice officials. Bishnoi is safe in prison. We seem to have reached a stalemate. Time to move on?  

The risk of anything new.

"A new generation of small nuclear reactors is up an running - or nearly so - in the United States," The milestone made possible by billions in private and government funding, was on display in the middle of the Idaho desert." These small modular reactors (SMRs) are "compact enough that one was transported to the site by a pickup truck." "SMRs promise cheaper, faster-to-build nuclear power that can go almost anywhere," and is "positioning itself as a tool for American influence abroad." ET. SMRs "are advanced nuclear reactors that have a power capacity of up to 300 MW(e) per unit, about one-third of the generating capacity of traditional nuclear power reactors." "SMRs offer savings in cost and construction time, and they can be deployed incrementally to match increasing energy demand." iaea.org. "Even as $2.3 trillion in market value was erased from tech's elite 'Magnificent Seven' stocks last month," "the Semiconductor sector has experienced a historic surge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rallied more than 90% this year, tacking on another 6% gain just this month." TOI. Last year, Google let off two "firebombs", wrote Nilesh Jasani. The first was Google's generative AI Gemini which it integrated with its "existing services to sustain its dominance over a sprawling billion-user ecosystem."  The second was "its latest Ironwood Tensor Processing Unit" which "boasts 4,614 T-flops of peak compute power and 192GB of high-bandwidth memory, showing Google's ability to engineer hardware optimized exclusively for its models." Companies in the US spend vast sums of money on innovating new products, often encouraged by the US government, which puts them ahead in new technologies while the rest of the world tries to play catch-up. Sadly, R&D figures in India have fallen from "an already modest 0.83% of GDP in 2009-10 to 0.64% in 2020-21." Until the liberalisation of the 1990s, high customs barriers protected Indian companies from competition with foreign companies. "Today, the culture of rent seeking is perpetuated - despite the relative openness to the world inherited from the reforms of the 1990s - by the influence of industrialists close to the government, known as oligarchs or 'cronies', who succeed in owning or having the governments they finance raise customs barriers (often non-tariff barriers) that hinder the entry of foreign competitors into the Indian market," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. The Indian government has set aside Rs 10 billion ($120) for its AI mission. "One Nvidia H100 GPU, which is essential for modern AI, costs about $30,000 to $40,000." "What's even more surprising is that out of the meager Rs 20 billion set aside for FY26, only about Rs 8 billion was actually used - a 40% utilisation rate," wrote Arindam Goswami. "Operating under the department of atomic energy, which is headed by the Prime Minister, Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) is today 75 years old." It should be producing rare earth magnets but "India's ecosystem lacks the technology to make rare earth magnets. And entrepreneurs are absent, too," wrote T Surender. Indian businessmen are averse to risks that innovation brings. Ironically, the CEO of Google Sundar Pichai is of Indian origin. wikipedia. Indians can do things. But, not in India. 

Well done Sri Lanka.

"Sri Lanka has regained upper middle-income status just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022." The World Bank reclassified it "from the lower-middle-income category after the economy expanded by 5% in 2025, supported by broad-based recovery across industries and growth in tourism and financial services." TNIE. In May 2022, "Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debt for the first time in its history as the country struggles with its worst financial crisis in more than 70 years." "Sri Lanka is seeking to restructure debts of more than $50 billion it owes to foreign creditors, to make it more manageable to pay." BBC. India's Real GDP, or GDP at Constant Prices, grew at 7.7%, while Nominal GDP, or GDP at Current Prices, grew at 8.9% in 2025-26. pib.giv.in. Although it has fallen from an all-time high of $728.494 billion, India's foreign exchange reserves were at $666.933 billion during the week ended 26 June. CNBC TV18. And yet, "India remains in the lower-middle-income category," while The Philippines, Vietnam and Jordan have also been upgraded. India Today. "India is facing an acute jobs and wages crisis. Young people have disproportionately felt the impact. Just 7% of the population is now prosperous enough to pay I-T (income tax), and no young person entering the job market, even with professional or postgraduate qualifications, is paid enough to be in even the lowest tax bracket," wrote Rathin Roy. Jobs have to be created and for that India needs to offer goods and services that people will want. Patent filings have rocketed to 60,000 in 2023 from 40,000 in 2013, but "Patents are not subjected to blind peer review by experts," and "There is no measure of intrinsic quality, impact or scientific merit. Since the legal test is all that must be met, a surge in filings need not reflect a wave of genuine innovation." Universities have increased their patent filings to 42% of all filings in 2023 from 20% in 2013, which helps for advertising, wrote Mihir Mahajan & Arindam Goswami. "The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) of 2025 counts 79.2 million unincorporated non-agricultural establishments in India." "The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24, reports that the average registered factory employs 73 workers, ASUSE shows the average unincorporated establishment employs only 1.6. This is near solo work." Because, "When the modern sector does not create enough stable, productive wage jobs, self-employment becomes the default option rather than entrepreneurial choice," wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand. Even our laws are aganst the unincorporated sector. The law says that "buyers are legally obligated to settle vendor bills within 45 days if a written contract exists, or 15 days in its absence. The statue mandates a penalty and compound interest liability for non-compliance." And yet, "Large private entities and government bodies routinely stretch payment cycles to 90,120,or 180 days." The government may not pay on time but it wants its cut straight away. GST must be paid by the 20th of the next month from when the invoice is generated, regardless of whether the bill has been settled, wrote Ajit Ranade. The government and its cronies blatantly break the rules. No wonder Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Jordan have climbed higher than us. We are down there with Pakistan. World Bank. Siamese twins.        

Optimistic Indians.

"Morgan Stanley yesterday assigned a 25% probability to the BSE Sensex hitting 100,000 by June 2027. It said the bull case scenario was based on assumptions including oil prices staying below $80 a barrel, reflation policies beginning to deliver results and earnings growth compounding at 19% annually over FY 2026-29." BT. A 25% probability means a 75% against and no one can predict the price of oil. "Reflation is a policy response to economic slowdowns that aims to boost spending and counter deflation." "Reflation aims to stop deflation - the general decline in prices for goods and services that occurs when inflation falls below 0%." Investopedia. That is definitely not the case in India. Consumer price (CPI) inflation came in at 3.93% in May 2026, higher than 3.48% in April. pib.gov.in. The Indian rupee has fallen to over 95 to one dollar from about 88 in 2025. bankbazaar.com. If the rupee falls further it could cancel out any fall in the price of oil and increase consumer prices by increasing the cost of transport. "India's economy is expected to maintain growth of above 7% in 2026-27 (FY 27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth could slip below 3%...the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry said. Morgan Stanley's prediction is not a "bull case scenario", it is bull something else. It is an irresponsible incitement of Indians to invest in the stock market. "This should not be called a share market. This should be called a poison market. This is poison and it will kill everyone one day," said Shankar Sharma. "if you close the stock market for 10 years in India, then India will really grow." India Today. Earlier he said, 'India cannot afford to offer foreign capital fully convertible currency exits amid a balance of payments deficit. A price must be extracted for exits. A crashing stock market is that price. In fact, a crushed stock market almost always guarantees massive foreign inflows." Mint. The rupee is sinking mainly because Indian stock markets are overvalued compared with their peers." Foreign investors (FPIs) have withdrawn $53 billion from Indian markets in the last 18 months. But the market is barely down. Because, "Fund managers have convinced investors that they should not try to time their entry into markets and invest a regular sum every month. This has induced a rising SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflow, up from Rs 200 billion/month at the start of 2025 to Rs 320.8 billion in March 2026." And this has allowed FPIs to exit at a high price, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. The stock market exuberance is despite the May 2026 Consumer Confidence Surveys by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which show that the Urban Current Situation Index has fallen to 90.7 from 95.7 two months earlier. A reading below 100 is negative and 90.7 falls in pessimistic territory. The Rural Current Situation Index has fallen to 95.2. TNIE. "India ranks as the second-most optimistic country among 30 markets in the April 2026 wave of Ipsos' What Worries the World survey, with 72% of urban Indians saying the country is moving in the right direction. This places India among a small cluster of high-confidence economy." Ipsos'.com. But now, "The Future Expectations Index for urban India dropped to 118.7, its lowest reading since September 2023." "Worsening expectations threaten consumption demand - the largest component of growth in India." So, why did Morgan Stanley make such a ridiculous suggestion? Is it, like our 'godi (lapdog) media', trying to flatter our government, or is it trying to push up our stock prices to boost profits of US investors? Either way, it's unethical. Even wrong.