A very thin waist..

"India lifted an estimated 496 million people out of poverty between 2011 and 2023, with the share of the population living in extreme poverty declining sharply from 27.1% to 2.6%, according to the World Bank." "However, youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9%," and the report "cautioned that some recent gains may reflect improvements in measurement alongside genuine welfare improvement." NDTV. "The Indian government collected Rs 2.31 trillion as gross goods and services tax (GST) in October, up 22.9% from the same month last year." "The cumulative gross GST collection for the first seven months of this fiscal (April-October) stood at Rs 14.78 trillion, registering a growth of 13.2% year-on-year." ET. This may be because sales of consumer goods start increasing in the months leading up to the festival season in September and October, and retail inflation jumped to 5.54% in September (Reuters). Also, "India's annual (year-on-year) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation increased to 11.39% in September, compared to 9.92% in August 2026." "The increase in wholesale inflation was broad-based, with Primary Articles, Fuel and Power, and Manufactured products recording year-on-year inflation of 8.67%, 25.85% and 9.76% respectively." phdcci.in. The poor are relatively shielded from rising prices by subsidies. The government is distributing free food grains to 813.5 million people at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years, starting 1 January 2024. pib.gov.in. In June 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that 950 million (around 64%) people "are getting the benefit of some or the other social security scheme." newsonair.gov.in. India's total expenditure on subsidies is estimated at Rs 4.55 trillion in this year's Budget. indiabudget. gov.in. "Programs covering housing, cooking gas, toilets, piped water, bank accounts and food security have reached tens of millions of households, and the drop in multidimensional poverty is concentrated in exactly those areas." At the same time, "India's billionaire population in 2025 totaled 284 individuals, making the country third globally after the United States and China." And corruption has reached levels never seen before, wrote Anita Anand. Meanwhile, "Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated across France in largely peaceful protests on 31 October, the latest in a series of youth-led protests that began in late September demanding action on the high cost of living and poor public services, especially schools." BBC. So, "Why is one of the rich world's biggest public spenders on fire again? This is after all a highly redistributive country that has racked up an extra 1 trillion euros ($1,1 trillion) of borrowing since 2019. And yet surveys indicate that the French on average lack 500 euros a month to comfortably cover their outgoings, making them vulnerable to sudden changes in their economic situation - and likelier to protest," wrote Lionel Laurent. The problem is so difficult because, "The biggest beneficiaries, as usual in the West, are pensioners." It is probably not the pensioners themselves who have the power to resist change, but those who are working in salaried jobs, who, looking forward to an affluent, relaxed and enjoyable retirement, have the power of office to block any change in the pension system. In 1980, China and India were roughly equal. But, "China now accounts for a sizable share of the more affluent middle-income earners, while India seems to have faded in relative importance." A tiny group "has earned high returns from financial markets, and...as corporate honchos, bankers, lawyers , and other top professionals." "But the bottom is bursting at the seams." These are on welfare. "Between the bookends of wealth and welfare lies the problematic domain: work and wages," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A stunted middle class may be a direct result of this extreme inequality." In France it is the haves and the have-nots, in India it is the have-lots and the have-nots. 284 billionaires and 950 million on social security. On one side are the cronies and on the other the vote-bank (wikipedia). Anyone seen the middle class? Endangered species.       

Why wait till the Ides?

"As the Opposition stepped up its attack on his government and the Election Commission ahead of the INDIA bloc rally in New Delhi Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hit back Friday, saying 'some people' were out to 'create chaos across the country, so that Modi can be defamed'." TIE. Not really. Being a prime minister of a country is not just dressing up in new clothes and new headgear everyday (google. com), with luxurious tours around India and  junkets in foreign countries (pmindia.gov.in). This opulent lifestyle, for more than 4,400 days, celebrated by unctuous sycophants with pujas and aartis (NDTV), carries with it, what is known as, responsibility. Being held responsible for the deteriorating economic, social and criminal condition of the nation, despite unchallenged, absolute power for over 12 years,   defended with brutal ferocity by a compliant police (BBC) and investigative agencies (The Wire), is most definitely not defamation. "Addressing a gathering in Gujarat's Banaskantha, PM Modi said some people appeared to take pleasure when the country faced a crisis and attempted to create an atmosphere of uncertainty," even as, "India was dealing with the impact of the Iran war through collective efforts." India Today. Perhaps, in rising panic, "PM Modi on Saturday accused the Opposition of abandoning its constitutional role and becoming an 'obstructionist force' against development." He also said that "'creating divisions could not be justified as democratic dissent." TNIE. What was constitutional when 92 members of parliament (MPs) were suspended by BJP Lok Sabha Speaker and Rajya Sabha Chairman in 2023, so that laws could be passed unopposed? NDTV. Was it to unify the country that Mr Modi and the BJP have been vilifying 'ghuspaithiya' (infiltrators), meaning Bangladeshis? "In the Lok Sabha election last year (2024), Modi had said that the Congress, which believes that Muslims have the first right on the country's assets, will give away non-Muslims' wealth and property to 'infiltrators' if they come to power." The Print. Must by unifying like superglue. If there is a "crisis", the government is more responsible than distant wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Just as the government was responsible when hundreds died of Covid in Mr Modi's own constituency Varanasi because the world's most stringent lockdown was enforced suddenly with just four hours notice on 24 March 2020 when there were only 519 cases (BBC),   forcing millions of migrant workers in Mumbai and Delhi to walk hundreds of kilometers, some with little children, back to their villages (TOI). People of Varanasi got infected because of council elections in Uttar Pradesh on 18 April - "held against advice from experts. Reports say more than 700 teachers on poll duty died in the state and the elections helped spread the virus." BBC. A Special Court in Delhi allowed seven foreign nationals accused of terrorism-related offences to travel home for a month. "The accused, an American national, Matthew Aaron VanDyke and six Ukrainian citizens were arrested in March 2026. The allegations included drone assembly, electronic warfare training and support to ethnic armed organisations along the Indo-Myanmar border." Scroll. Indian citizens arrested under Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) are held in prison for years without trial or providing any evidence to support the allegations. UAB. Crawling to the US while brutally suppressing citizens. The most terrifying is Mr Modi's assertion that "he would continue serving people until his last breath". TOI. That is what Julius Caesar wanted (wikipedia). Until the 'Ides of March'. Britannica.     

Tailors and cobblers to the rescue.

The US midterm elections on November 3, in which Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House," "will set political constraints on President Donald Trump for the rest of his term across trade, immigration, and foreign policy." "A Democratic House would put tariffs under sharper scrutiny, but would not reverse them." And "could slow down restrictive immigration measures." TIE. Before celebrating any Democrat victory, the media should remember that it was a Senator Joe Biden who blocked India's purchase of cryogenic engines from Glavkosmos of the Soviet Union in January 1991 (Indian Defence News), it was a President Bill Clinton who levied sanctions on India in January 1999 (CBC) and it was a President Barack Obama who provided Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets, fast patrol boats, self-propelled howitzer field artillery cannons, night-vision goggles and smart bomb equipment, with a promise to provide more F-16s, leading up to 2010 (India Today), as a bribe, to eliminate Osama bin Laden with the help of Pakistan's ISI in 2011 - confirmed by then Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan in 2019 - (Mint), and to win re-election in November 2012 BBC). Democrats all, causing great damage and danger to India. "The US economy grew at its fastest pace in the third quarter," as "Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter," because "Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, increased at a 3.8% rate in July-September period." Reuters. "Since January 2025, manufacturing jobs have indeed fallen by about 100,000 workers, or roughly 0.6%. In the same period, though, manufacturing production rose 2.3%, and manufacturing shipments, unadjusted for inflation, climbed 4.2%." WSJ. "The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hovered near 57-year lows last week amid labor market resilience. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended October 24, the Labor Department said." Reuters. A large number of jobs could have been created as, "US consumers taking weight-loss drugs like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro have turned to cobblers and tailors as they try to save money while shedding pounds, motivated in part by a cost-of living squeeze and rising out-of-pocket costs for the drugs as US employers increasingly drop GLP-1 coverage." "Cobblers Direct,...is seeing double-digit year-on-year growth in its belt-shortening business, said CEO Stephen Kelly." Reuters. "The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on 28 October as expected." But, "The Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy to 'strong' from the 'solid' expansion seen as of the September meeting, while describing investment as robust and jobs gains as keeping pace with the workforce." Reuters. Meanwhile, "UK Finance Minister John Healey offered help to households buffeted by 'global economic storms'," but "The Office for Budget Responsibility warned that living standards would fall before edging only fractionally above their level before the Covid pandemic by the end of the decade." "It is a pretty grim picture," senior OBR official David Miles told reporters. Reuters. Clearly, belt-tightening means opposite things on the opposite sides of the pond. Tariffs, inflation, war, and yet the economy is growing, unemployment is low and consumers are spending. Put a stop to it. Vote Democrat.          

Forget the hand. Beware the finger.

"Mohan Bhagwat has discovered a sinister foreign hand behind protests in India." "How depressingly familiar. Indira Gandhi popularised the technique of blaming domestic dissent on foreign conspiracies. The 'foreign hand' became a convenient explanation for protests against corruption, inflation and authoritarianism," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Mr Mohan Bhagwat is the Sarsangchalak (Supreme Leader) of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) (wikipedia) which provides muscular support for the BJP government. Mrs Indira Gandhi claimed that there was a CIA conspiracy to assassinate her after the assassination of Chile's Salvador Allende as the reason for declaring an Emergency from 25 June 1975 to 21 March 1977 (wikipedia). At that time the US "was active around the world destabising unfriendly governments and installing friendly regimes. Tin pot dictators in banana republics became extensions of the American empire," wrote Sanjaya Baru. In June 2025, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey "recalled an incident from 1971, claiming former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was kept waiting for an hour by US President Richard Nixon during her visit to Washington." TOI. This was probably a triumphant hint at Prime Minister Narendra Modi being hosted at Blair House, also known as The President's Guest House, by President Donald Trump in February 2025, and where Charles de Gaulle, Queen Elizabeth II and the emperor of Japan also stayed. NDTV. Another difference between Mrs Gandhi and Mr Modi is that Mrs Gandhi won an emphatic victory against Pakistan in December 1971 (wikipedia), leading to the independence of Bangladesh, despite threats from Allied warships led by the US Seventh Fleet (TOI), whereas US President Donald Trump has been claiming repeatedly to have stopped Operation Sindoor by threatening to impose punitive tariffs and that 11 planes were shot down. NDTV. In fact, India could be the 'foreign hand' in the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 (BBC). "Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign is under fire after a New York Times report that it played a role in recruiting Dan J Sullivan - a Republican who almost has the same name as incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan - as part of an effort to sow confusion and ultimately benefit Peltola's campaign." Text messages and documents apparently showed that "lawyers for Peltola and senior aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed to pushing Dan J Sullivan, a Republican on Alaska's four-way ballot, to run." ABC. Fielding namesakes, known as 'vote cutters', has been a common practice in India. A rival party backs several people with the same name to stand as candidates to confuse the electorate.  "The highest number I came across, coming from a famous 2014 story in Hindustan Times, seven namesakes. Chandu Lal Sahu, a politician from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had seven rivals named exactly like him, apart from three bearing a very similar name (Chandu Ram Sahu) and two more with the same surname. He won, but the final result was a close call," wrote Krzysztof Iwanek. To avoid confusion, especially among the illiterate, the Election Commission of India allots symbols to political parties which can be easily recognized (wikipedia). So, asking people to vote for the 'broom', instead of looking for the Aam Aadmi Party, or the 'hand', instead of the Congress Party, avoids confusion. If it is any consolation to corrupt, inefficient governments, "A Fox news digital investigation claims to have uncovered links between riots in France and youth protests in India demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar." Apparently, "101 organisations across nine countries form a 'red-green protest ecosystem', referring to Islamist and communist groups, that are coordinating, organizing, or amplifying demonstrations across Europe with an expanding protest ecosystem." ET. With so many hands which one is foreign? Forget the hand. Worry about the 'moving finger'. It's writing.          

Peace bondage.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Canada on the 11th and 12th of December." During a telephone conversation with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, "both leaders agreed to build on the positive momentum in ties and work towards concrete outcomes across key areas of the Strategic Partnership." newsonair.gov.in. Building on "the positive momentum" would probably not be necessary had former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's principal secretary Gerald Butts not accused Mr Modi "of 'screwing' the Canadian Prime Minister during his 2018 trip to India, helping his opposition, the Conservatives, in the country". The Print. However, the Conservatives did not win and the present Prime Minister Mark Carney is also from Trudeau's Liberal Party. pm.gc.ca. It seems that the memory of 'screwing' lasts a long time in international politics. Across the border, "India's Operations Sindoor has featured in election rallies for the US midterm elections, with President Donald Trump once again claiming to have stopped two nuclear armed neighbors from going to war by threatening steep tariffs." "Eleven planes were shot," he repeated for the umpteenth time. "India has repeatedly rejected Trump's assertions that he brokered a ceasefire between mew Delhi and Islamabad." ET. Dang furriners will probably believe Trump. A few days ago, Director General of the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) Shatrujeet Singh Kapur said that face-offs with Chinese troops "had taken place at several locations in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and were continuing." At first both sides withdrew but Chinese troops returned in large numbers and pitched tents "around six-to-seven kilometers inside India's perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC)." BBC. China annexed "a free and sovereign Tibet between 6 October 1950 and 24 October 1951" and then "the naked two-front Chinese invasion of Kashmir and NEFA (now Arunachal Pradesh) on 20 October 1962." There have been other attacks in October. "Hence, every October, expect the unexpected," wrote Abhijit Bhattacharyya. How is the government defending India? The Delhi Police, a Special Executive Magistrate (SEM) court and the Delhi High Court are forcing the President of the All India Students' Association, Neha Bora, to sign a peace bond. HT.  How did this lone woman disturb the peace with hordes of brutal police attacking unarmed students with sticks, batons and tear gas and deliberately causing permanent disability with pellet guns (BBC)? She apparently wants 'regime change'. What horror! Even the thoroughly submissive, sycophantic 'Godi (lapdog) Media' (wikipedia) is beginning to squeak. "The Indian government's privacy law, which would require journalists to seek consent from people they write about, amounted to pre-censorship and could lead to newsrooms shutting down, media groups told the Supreme Court." Reuters. They should have heeded Martin Niemollar's words: "Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me." (Holocaust Encyclopedia) while they were kowtowing to this fascist government. First, it was a Norwegian journalist Helle Lyng Svendsen who asked Mr Modi why he doesn't take questions. "Narendra Modi would not take my question; I wasn't expecting him to. Norway has the number one spot on the World Press Freedom Index, India is at 157th," she wrote. How humiliating for India. Now, "I will not tolerate a foreign police state like India threatening my journalists, We will fight for the truth and won't be silenced by them," said Keean Bexte, founder of independent news organisation Juno News in Canada. The Print. Does Mr Modi still want to visit Canada? For a tourist prime minister  (pmindia.gov.in) foreign junkets could get really uncomfortable. Stay at home and kill Indians for fun. Like the British did. And the Moguls before that. 

How far is 'near term'?

In the 'State of the Economy' article in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) October Bulletin, "RBI officials said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and targeted policy interventions were helping cushion India against external shocks, even as geopolitical conflicts and disruptions to global supply chains posed fresh economic risks." "India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27." News18. That being so, why is the rupee dropping in value, hitting our purchasing power, despite RBI's frantic efforts? "RBI had introduced a special USD-INR Forex Swap facility covering FCNR (B) deposits, ECB and OFCB inflows on June 08, 2026." rbi.org.in. The FCNR (B) scheme collected $127.226 billion and was closed on 31 August. The other two will run till 31 December 2026. After the opening of the scheme, India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to $671.63 billion in the week ended 19 June 2026 but fell to $666.93 billion a week later by 26th."  As on 14 September, "India's foreign exchange reserves have reached a record $785.7 billion, helping the country to climb to the fourth spot among the world's largest reserve holders." NDTV. It has been declining ever since as the RBI has been selling dollars to support the rupee. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $5 billion to $721.02 billion in the week ended 16 October, according to RBI data." ET. The surprising thing is that, "Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday (June 5, 2026) said the forex reserve stood at a healthy $682.3 billion, adequate to provide import cover for about 11 months." "Observing that India successfully negotiated the challenges of elevated tariffs and trade related uncertainties in 2025-26 amid turbulent global economic environment, he said the surge in energy prices and persistent trade policy uncertainties continue to pose upside risks to India's current account deficit in 2026-27." But, "Services trade surplus and inward remittances are expected to provide some comfort." The Hindu. If India had "successfully negotiated" all challenges and the reserves were healthy on 05 June, what could have happened in three days for the RBI to resort to a panicked nuclear option on 08 June? On 1 September, "India's current account deficit widened marginally in the April-June quarter from a year ago on the back of higher commodity prices and a wider trade gap," to $4.2 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, "compared with a revised deficit of $3.4 billion, or 0.4% of GDP, a year earlier, the RBI data showed." "In the preceding quarter, the current account had recorded a surplus of $6.5 billion. The current account is expected to widen in the second and third quarter of the year, with full year gap at close 0.9% of GDP, Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said." Reuters. On 21 October, "India should allow the dollar-rupee exchange to move as the first line of defence amid the ongoing oil shock, an IMF official said." "The RBI has intervened heavily to support the rupee via dollar sales from its reserves," so that, "The rupee, which fell to near record levels earlier this month has rebounded about 2%." "Foreign-exchange interventions have not been particularly beneficial beyond the near term due to the oil shock, Srinivasan said." Reuters. "India should resist the temptation to defend the rupee at any cost, even if it means allowing the currency to weaken further, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on 27 October." ET. So what "near term" is the government looking at? May be banking on Benjamin Netanyahu losing the general election in Israel and the next prime minister negotiating a peace deal with Iran. Alas, "Israel's exit polls reversed overnight on Tuesday, projecting Prime Minister Banjamin Netanyahu as having a narrow lead over on his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. HT. The other hope: "With just a week left for the US midterm elections, betting markets suggest that President Donald Trump's Republican Party could lose control of Congress." TOI. Democrats hate Trump and support Palestinians and so will cut military aid to Israel. Oil prices will fall and the rupee will bounce, enabling the RBI to buy dollars back. Keeping the rupee strong till February-March, when Assembly elections are to be held in very important states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur (wikipedia), may help to suppress the prices of imports, especially oil. Inflation is an election loser. And so, it's support rupee "at any cost". But is February in the "near term"?     

Yes to trade deal; No to cannibal cows.

"India and the US have concluded most discussions on the proposed bilateral trade agreement and are now fine-tuning the pact, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said yesterday, signalling progress in negotiations amid continuing tariff-related uncertainties." NDTV. "Under the framework, the US was required to reduce reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, while India had committed to reducing or eliminating tariffs on most US agricultural and industrial exports." India has to purchase US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products over 5 years, accept US diktat on third-country trade, meaning sanctions, and international standards on US products, wrote Abhijit Das. The last is a sly, underhand attempt at sneaking dairy products into India, produced from cows fed with "Meat meal from pigs, chickens, horses, or even dogs and cats," "Blood from pigs and horses", and "Chicken feathers, bedding material and dropping." The most disgusting practice is feeding tallow from cattle to cows. ET. Dairy from cannibal cows is truly revolting, even to think about. US is one of the very few countries that India has a trade surplus with. In 2025, India's merchandise exports to the US was $103.8 billion while imports from the US was $45.4 billion, giving a surplus of $58.4 billion. In services, we exported $47.6 billion worth and imported worth $42.9 billion, giving a surplus of $4.7 billion. ustr.gov. In financial year 2025-26, India's total (merchandise+services) exports grew 4.22% to $860.09 billion while total imports grew 6.47% to around $970 billion. Total trade deficit was almost $110 billion. ddnew.gov.in. The trade deficit with China alone rose to $99.19 billion in fiscal 2025-26 from $85 billion in 2024-25. BS. The problem is that India is seen as unfair to foreign businesses. "Foreign investors are not amused. Jamie Dimon, chair of JP Morgan has noted in several recent interviews that India's government ought to pay attention to a regulatory deficit." "Retail lobbies have long managed to keep this sector's foreign investors in a straitjacket. Licensed categories like aviation are rife with policy puzzles. Abrupt rule tweaks are common. Asset shifts have been wrapped in riddles in fields like e-commerce and infrastructure." Mint. In 2022, Amazon walked away from an auction of media rights of the Indian Premier League cricket tournament. Amazon had started with e-commerce but "almost immediately ran into the Indian flavor of protectionism. Under the nation's strict foreign investment rules, the company can't hold or control inventory." Under new CEO Andy Jassy, "Amazon has said its investment in India will surge past $35 billion by 2030, but much of that will go to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI) - not e-commerce." ET. It may seem a lot of money, but since most of the equipment will be imported, and not many jobs created, it will not be much of a gain. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect in July 2026. Under it, India will get "zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of the trade value." pib.gov.in. The agreement has already run into jobsworth Indian officials. Under CETA, duty on Scotch whisky is to be reduced to 75% from 150% immediately and then to 40% over the next 10 years. But revenue investigators are saying that bulk Scotch concentrates are not eligible for the lower rate of duty. TOI. We will be paying zero duty on 100% of our trade value but are not willing to honor a huge 75% duty on one product. Regarding the India Japan high- speed Shinkansen rail project, former Justice Minister of Japan Hideki Makihara said that "what stood out in international meetings and negotiations was the sheer recklessness of the Indian side...They just don't keep promises, no matter what. Even if they make a promise, they flip it right away." He said the Indian minister was "awful", DH. We need a trade agreement with the world's biggest consumer market with consumer spending at 16788.70 USD billion in the second quarter of 2026, up from 16634.20 USD billion in the first. Trading Economics. That is potentially over $64 trillion in the whole year. But we need to realize that trade cannot be a one-way street. We need to compromise on some things. But, not on cannibal cows, please. No matter what.   

  

It's a paradox.

"Going by projections by global agencies, India is on course to surpass its 2003-2007 record of five consecutive years of 7% or higher growth, Kyunghoon Kim of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said." "Following a 5.8% contraction during the pandemic, India's economy rebounded sharply by 9.7% in 2021 and has sustained growth exceeding 7% in each succeeding year." TOI. A report by the Union Bank of India "highlighted that India's outstanding private capex pipeline reached Rs 99.7 trillion in September 2026, nearly 4.1 times its March 2014 level and 39% higher than a year ago." "The report cautioned that project announcements could outpace actual executions." ET. "Even as the conventional tax-paying middle class in India feels economically crushed, the number of individuals declaring an income of more than Rs 10 million has risen about eight-fold in the last 12 years to 324,000." "Taxpayers earning Rs 500,000 to Rs 10 million...saw their average income move from Rs 1.023 million in 2012-13 to just Rs 1.069 million in 2023-24," while "Consumer prices rose about 80% between FY13 and FY24." Which means they are earning 42% less in real terms. "In FY13 rupees, the Rs 1.069 million earned in FY24 buys what Rs 595,000 did then," wrote Nandita Rajhansa & Suarabh Mukherjee. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjee and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." "A town with less than 0.5 million people will have 20 such families," while "A city with 1 million people will have 50 such families." ET. The study does not tell us what proportion of this 'octopus class' are 'Bahubalis' (strongmen) (pgurus.com) who enjoy political protection. Political scientist Milan Vaishnaw has studied why Indians vote for criminals. He found that a candidate with a criminal record "had an 18% chance of winning their next election whereas the 'clean' candidates had only a 6% chance." Criminals can force a callous and corrupt civil service to deliver services which people want. BBC. "Investment in the Indian Economy as reflected by GFCF (gross fixed capital formation) recorded a strong growth of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2026-27." "The Centre's capex has grown by 30% in the first four months of the current fiscal year." "Investment by India's private non-financial sector (with 30% of the total investment) grew by 7% in 2024-25, jumping from 3% growth recorded the previous year," wrote Rajani Sinha. "Note that India's corporate capex has been stable at 14-15% of GDP in the past decade, lower than 17-18% in the post-2008 period and its peak of 21% in 2007-08." "India's total investment-to-GDP ratio has averaged 33% in recent years. Not only is this better than about 30% in the pre-pandemic period, but also only second to China's 40% among the world's major economies," wrote Nikhil Gupta. The private sector will increase investment only if they are sure of making profits, but India's middle class is not growing. Outside the 1 million octopus class are 800 million people who survive on free food grains for five years from 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in). "Between the bookends of wealth and wages lies the problematic problem: work and wage," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A stunted middle class may be a direct result of this extreme inequality. Folks at the top of the ladder don't see the teeming masses as a meaningful market, except for utilities, soap, short videos, and personal loans. Meanwhile, those at the bottom of the pyramid lack the education and skills to manufacture things for the wealthy at home and overseas." Enforced gig work does not create a middle class. "A total of 64.3% of India's population, which represents over 940 million people, are now covered by at least one social protection benefit," boasted Labour and Employment Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. TNIE. If the gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at over 7% and government and private investment are growing it should mean production is increasing. With 940 million on some sort of social benefit demand should be muted, but the RBI is signaling more rate hikes due to higher inflation (Reuters). How can prices increase if demand is low while production is high. The great Indian paradox. Could someone please explain.                

Paying foreigners to leave.

"Indian equities indices snapped their two-week winning streak, falling more than 2% amid concerns over potential energy supply disruptions," as "For the week, the BSE Sensex declined 1,605.44 points, or 2.44%, to 74,729.27, while Nifty 50 fell 546.15 points, or 2.25%, to close at 22,600." MC. "The BSE Sensex reached an all-time intraday high of 86,159.02 points on 1 December 2025." Bajaj Finance. The index has fallen so much because "Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have spent the past two years wiping out almost nine years of buying in Indian stocks," as "From 2015 till now, foreign investors recorded net equity inflows of approximately minus $110 million. That means nearly $63.6 billion since October 2024 has erased the $63.5 billion accumulated during the preceding nine years." ET. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the recent weakness in India's stock market is partly linked to the ease with which investors can sell their holdings, while asserting that the economy's underlying fundamentals remains sound, according to a report." ET. Of course, investors, especially foreign funds, would not buy into the Indian markets unless assured of an easy exit whenever they wanted. The markets would have fallen much more without the support of domestic investors through Systematic Investment Plans (SIP) which "have held up despite Indian benchmark equity indices correcting around 9% over the past two years." "SIP contributions hit a record Rs 322.97 billion in August 2026." Mint. "Indian stocks are the cheapest they have been in six years. Bernstein still says they are too expensive for foreign investors." "This year foreign investors pulled Rs 3.08 trillion out of Indian stocks. Domestic institutions (DII), including mutual funds, put in Rs 6.83 trillion, more than twice as much," wrote Ankur Choudhary. By pushing up the prices of shares DIIs are helping FIIs to sell profitably. That is probably what the minister means when she says that selling is too easy. "Mutual fund SIPs are fundamentally the wrong product for India," said veteran investor Shankar Sharma. "Equity markets were never designed to enrich the masses. They tend to do the opposite: strip wealth from the many while making a few fabulously rich." Double taxation on share transactions is one reason why Indian shares lost attraction for foreign investors. In 2004, capital gains taxes were removed from equities and Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which is levied regardless of profit or loss in selling shares, was introduced. Thus, "In 2025-26, the Nifty fell 5% and the Sensex 7%, yet STT (collection) still rose 8% to Rs 575.22 billion." In 2018, capital gains taxes were reintroduced but STT was not discontinued. In 2024, tax on long-term capital gains was raised to 12.5% and that on short-term gains were raised to 20%, wrote S Sridharan & A Raghavendra M. In February 2025, Sharma warned about depending on the stock market for tax collections. "I invest globally. I pay zero capital gains tax anywhere. I only pay tax on dividend, which is minuscule. Nowhere in the world you get taxed on capital gains." BT. Between June and August 2026, the RBI raised $127 billion through tax free FCNR (B) scheme (NDTV), at 6.5% rate of interest with lock-in for 3-5 years  (Federal Bank), to support the rupee. Sharma said that this "does not address India's external-sector challenges and will instead effectively finance foreign investors' exits from Indian equities." MC. In effect, FIIs are getting more dollars in exchange for rupees as they sell. 'Atithi Devo Bhava', meaning a guest is akin God, is old Hindu philosophy. wikipedia. We are paying them to leave. That will make us 'sanyasis'. Meaning 'mendicants'. (Britannica). Does the government really want that?    

The real danger.

"Well before the throttling this month of Ukraine's military access to Elon Musk's satellite communications system, the Biden and Trump administrations had several times asked SpaceX to turn its Starlink service on or off in various countries, according to six former senior US officials familiar with the matter." ET. Is this the Aha moment that the government has been looking for? On 7 October, "Elon Musk alleged that Starlink's entry into India is being 'blocked' by certain 'oligarchs' seeking to protect their 'monopolistic chokehold' over the country's people." ET. To that the BJP MP Nishkant Dubey came out with the tired old excuse of "satellite internet service poses challenges to the country's security agencies". TOI. How? By blocking services or by continuing service which the government wants to hide from the people? "Between March and July, there was one blocking order every 68 seconds, on an average, for online content by the government in India. This amounts to around 1,275 every day, nearly 195,000 in just five months." The Wire. During the student protests in New Delhi in July the protesters used Bitchat to get around government blocks of the internet. "The government reportedly wants it shut down saying it can be used for unlawful activities." NDTV. A fascist government naturally wants to control what people say and hear. By October, both Apple and Google had removed Bitchat from their app stores. NDTV. On 10 October, "The crackdown on the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP)-led stir began long before dawn, with security services tracking digital footprints, monitoring high-profile social media profiles and enforcing restrictions." "To counter aggressive phone-seizure tactics and real-time tracking by intelligence units, many key student leaders and volunteer coordinators switched to secondary, unregistered burner devices loaded with temporary data plans." "Volunteers were briefed to clear cache files, disable biometric unlock features, and limit live broadcast sharing until safely away from active security cordons." News18. American media companies do not allow governments to snoop on their contents. In 2013, "Google has issued a strong denial that it allows the US government to access its servers." BBC. In 2016, "Apple will contest a court order to help FBI investigators access data on the phone used by San Bernardino gunman Syed Rizwan Farook." BBC. Even after Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik shot dead 14 people and seriously injured 22 others at a Christmas party on 2 December 2015 at San Bernardino, California. wikipedia.  "Signal, the free and open source end-to-end encrypted messaging service, has become increasingly popular," as "In a recent interview, the president of the non-profit organisation behind Signal reportedly stated that the service would exit a country rather than compromise on its encryption." Gadgets 360. Recently, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted 'dozens' of global institutions that their website may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." BBC. "AI models under test broke into Indian organisations' live systems and read confidential records undetected, India's cyber security agency said." Reuters. In April, "Israel's intelligence agencies hacked into Tehran's street cameras and used the data to assassinate Iran's top leadership." "First, Indian cities are among the most densely surveilled in the world, along with China. Seconds, many of our extensive CCTV networks were put in place about a decade ago and have negligible security features," wrote Robin David. If the government is worried about security it should mandate that all defence, police, intelligence, civil service, ministers and all branches of central, state and local government will access only Indian service providers for official and personal use. Unimportant citizens, who have no classified information, like us, will be allowed to use Starlink. With the US and China developing advanced AI systems no one is safe. Forget what tie to wear when you are naked from waist down. Beware an upper cut.      

Not little any more.

"Europe is emerging from one of its worst wildfire seasons on record," "burning 699,000 hectares (1.7 million acres - an area more than four times the size of London." "In the 1950s, the countryside west of Madrid, Spain's capital, was a mosaic of crop fields and pastures, intersected by rural roads." But since 1975, decreasing rural populations led to growth of shrubs and trees, creating young forests, and fires are linking up to cause huge blazes. Reuters. Wildfires are being caused by dry weather due to a warming of the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, which "can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others - and in some cases both." wfp.org. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean is apparently a record 3.46 degree Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline. CSR. On the contrary, the 14th Century Black Death plague caused so many deaths "that millions of trees sprang up in abandoned farmland, soaking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This would have had the effect of cooling the climate, a team from Utrecht University, Netherlands, says." This was the Little Ice Age some 300 years ago. BBC. "Indonesia's fire crisis is closely linked to peatland drainage and conversion for palm oil plantations." "The danger is the peat itself: once drained for plantations it becomes extremely flammable and can smolder underground for months, producing choking haze long after the flames are gone." Indonesia has lost over 8 million hectares already. Current Wildfires. All these fires are pouring millions of tonnes of soot and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, making the earth warmer. "By one estimate, peat fires generate three times more fine particulate matter than other tropical forest fires, five times more sulphur dioxide, three times more organic carbon, and two times more methane and carbon monoxide." science.nasa.gov. Meanwhile, Taiwan has shut down in preparation for Typhoon Champi. "At one point a super typhoon and one of the strongest storms in the Pacific this year, Champi was still packing gusts of around 191 kph (119 mph) near its center, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA)." Reuters. In India, "After a monsoon marked by a 13% rainfall deficit," "the immediate concern is whether the strengthening El Nino will compound the effects of the deficient monsoon and influence winter temperatures, rainfall and agricultural conditions in the coming months." TOI. The state of Telangana received 24% less rainfall during the southwest monsoon, while there has been a 95% deficit between 1 and 22 October. DH. Excluding deserts, India is probably the hottest country in the world. "The sale of RACs (room air conditioners) has been growing at 15-20% since 2020." "India currently has about 70mn RACs." "In India, refrigerant leakage and refilling have reached crisis proportions," with about 40% of RACs refilled every year. "The coolants we use today - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - are hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2) in heating the climate," wrote Chandra Bhushan. Some parts of India are so parched that in April 2016, "A train carrying half a million liters of water has been dispatched to the worst-affected areas of India's drought-hit western Maharashtra state." BBC. In August, collapse of a glacier in the Himalayas sent a wall of water 100 meters high, traveling at 180 kilometers per hour through a valley in Nepal, killing 1,500 people and destroying 100 bridges, 13 hydropower dams and 23 schools. 5,600 people are still missing. news.un.org. Nepal borders India to the north. Melting glaciers high up in the mountains cause thousands of deaths from flash floods now, while dry rivers will kill millions slowly due to thirst in the future. El Nino means little boy. The boy is growing. We are toast.  

Interest in our deficit.

"Unlike in India, where years of lectures from multilateral institutions made economic policy makers wary of running high fiscal deficits, rich countries of the West had no such qualms." "Investors have begun treating France as the 'sick man of Europe,' with a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 120% (in contrast with India's 80% odd)." "Consider: France's budget deficit exceeds 5% of its GDP, which is more than India's gap of 4.4% last year and this year's target of 4.3%." Mint. "France's 10-year bond yield hit the 5% mark yesterday, a new 24-year high," as "Government bond yields have risen around the world this year, in light of the surge in energy prices that has prompted central banks to respond with high interest-rate rises." "Developed market governments are also dealing with ballooning debt piles." Reuters. India's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 7.443% this morning from 7.016% on 22 September. in.investing.com. "India's central bank rejected all bids at a treasury bill auction yesterday," as "The government planned to raise Rs 230 billion through the sale of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day treasury bills." "Traders said the cutoff yields likely came in above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) expectations." "In the five weeks to October 14, the cutoff yields on the three maturities jumped by 64 basis points (bps), 83 bps and 69 bps respectively." Reuters. On 7 October, "India's central bank raised its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%, marking the first rise in nearly four years amid mounting inflation and strong economic growth." Reuters. "Will it be a case of too-little-too-late?" asked Mythili Bhusnurmath. Because nothing much has changed since the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 26 August when it voted unanimously to "wait and see". When "India's federal government on 25 March retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2% to 6%," (Reuters) and "India's retail inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 5.54% in September (Reuters), why did the RBI tarry for so long? "Because, "When the government, the biggest borrower in the system, spends 40% of its revenues on interest, monetary tightening has serious consequences." "India's debt-to-GDP ratio is below that of several major economies, but its interest burden relative to revenues is very high." Interest payments of the central government is at Rs 14 trillion this year. "The fiscal impact accumulates as debt matures and new borrowing becomes more expensive." "Holding rates down can be counterproductive if investors then demand greater compensation for inflation and currency risk," wrote Ajit Ranade. One result of high inflation and a reluctant RBI is the "growing household investment in gold and silver, signifying productive resources being salted away in unproductive assets." While updated numbers are not available "trade data provide some indications: gold and silver imports jumped almost 34% between 2024-25 and 2025-26. Worse, in just the first three months of the current fiscal year imports are up 37% compared to the same period last year," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Growing bullion savings sends another signal: households are either left with no alternative savings avenues or lack confidence in the current state of the economy." Or both. We know that "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the RBI is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org. Clearly, the RBI's actions are designed to help the government. The question for Indians is whether it is helping the government to help the nation or just to win elections. Comparing with France is just a diversion. But it is still a lesson.

STT + LTCG - FPI = ?

"At a press briefing in Bangkok on 15 October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India entered the energy shock with strong fundamentals and has responded well to it, and that pressure on its exchange rate should not be read as a sign of failure." "It said benchmark interest rates in advanced economies have climbed to multi-decade highs, pushing up the borrowing costs for emerging markets." ET. Since the rupee is essential for every moment of our lives, from food to education and healthcare, its weakness signifies a weakness of the economy and governance for us. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 13 October that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would continue its efforts to curb volatility in the rupee but is not seeking to fix its value, as the currency faces pressure from outside factors." On 12 October, the rupee appreciated 93 paise, logging its steepest single-day gain in more than six months," and on the 13th, "The rupee appreciated 82 paise to 94.96 against US dollar,...supported by various RBI measures aimed at reducing immediate dollar demand and curbing excessive positions in the foreign exchange market." Mint. Since the rupee has jumped from 96.795 against one dollar on 08 October (in. investing.com) to 94.84, nearly 200 paise, to one dollar (xe.com) this morning, isn't the RBI causing more volatility by its actions? One reason for the weakness of the rupee is the selling of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who sold a net Rs 2.6 trillion worth of equities in the first nine months of 2026. "The Nifty 50 traded at 20.5 times trailing 12-month earnings on 30 September, down from 25 times at the September 2024 market peak. Yet the index fell 18.4% in dollar terms during January-September, underperforming all six global peers," wrote Mayur Bhalerao. In 2025, even as FPIs sold a net $18.9 billion worth of equities, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought a record $90.1 billion worth, nearly five times as much. In 2026, FPIs have net sold $27.8 billion worth till September, while DIIs have bought $64.6 billion. Mint. The problem is that DIIs are investing in rupees while FPIs are repatriating their proceeds in dollars. So the rupee falls. Even worse, DIIs push up the prices of shares, which gives greater returns to FPIs, while the RBI's support of the rupee increases the amount of dollars FPIs get when they convert their rupees to dollars. "For too long have successive governors said RBI does not target any level for the rupee but only manages its market volatility. Few believe that." "The reality is that the domestic currency will not be relieved of pressure so long as global oil prices rule high (India imports almost 90% of its needs), global bond yields harden, capital imports sputter and the dollar index stays high." Mint. One big reason for FPI-selling could be that in July 2004, "Long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on listed equity was axed, while tax on short-term gains was cut to 10%, but a new STT (Securities Transaction Tax) was levied in lieu of that relief." Since STT is incurred on every transaction, the tax is generated even when shares are being sold at a loss. In 2023-24, the Nifty rose 28% and STT collections rose 35%, while in 2025-26, the Nifty fell 5% but STT still jumped 8%. In 2018, LTCG tax was reintroduced at 10% and increased to 12.5% in 2024, while the tax on short-term gains jumped to 20%, but the STT stayed as it was, wrote S Sreedharan & A Raghavendra M. Naturally, FPIs feel short changed. When the government resorts to extortion, Indians stay captive but foreigners can escape. The IMF said our fundamentals are strong. True, strongly wrong.

They want the same thing.

Like the 1981 horror movie The Hand (wikipedia), the horrific, shadowy 'Foreign Hand' (Indian Currents)  has been haunting Indian governments since shortly after Independence. Even as, "Security agencies have stepped up their vigil over the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) movement amid intelligence assessments flagging the possibility of foreign interference. Several social media accounts allegedly linked to Pakistan, more than 4,000 social media posts and profiles, and over 500 accounts of being operated from outside India are under scrutiny." "According to intelligence assessments, funds are being mobilized for the movement through various channels." ABP. Pakistan and unnamed others are plotting against this beloved Indian government. What an intelligent assessment! What about BJP's interference in foreign countries? "Overseas Friends of the BJP (OFBJP) was formed about 13 years ago; it has units in USA, UK and Canada. It has been striving to project positive and correct image of India and BJP to the Western world, and correct the distortions and false image of BJP created by its adversaries." BJP. Are they not raising money as well? An American singer Mary Milliben, who has never been to India, but is apparently an ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (wikipedia) "alleged that the CJP was being funded by US-based donors opposed to PM Modi and urged young Indians to organize peaceful protests against what she described as the party's 'disruptive spirit'." TN. Ms Milliben may relax. The Indian government uses a wide range of weapons from batons to tear gas, from water cannons to pellet guns (Reuters) against unarmed citizens. When the UNHRC expressed concern on mass detentions of protesters, journalists and lawyers and called for restraint (ANI) India's instant brusque response was that its advice was "misplaced" and an "interference in internal matters" (HT). "Detained protesters said that police personnel beat them, hit their private parts, snatched away many of their phones, and deleted photos and videos of the protests from their phone galleries." The Wire. "An NSUI protester from Kerala has alleged that Delhi Police personnel punched him in the face, kicked him in the chest, back and private parts, and strangled him inside a police vehicle after he was detained during protests demanding the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar." He also "alleged that four boys aged 16 and 17 were subjected to similar treatment inside the vehicle, despite not having participated in the protest." India Today. We understand this fascist regime will do anything to hang on to power and as their crimes multiply so does the necessity of staying in control. But why do the police resort to such brutality? The protesters come from the same towns and villages as police personnel, so why the ferocity? Because they want to protect that most prized possession in India - a government job. "A government post offers iron-clad job security, wages well above comparable private sector roles (for instance a government-employed driver may earn four times higher), generous health and pension benefits, high social status and authority even at the lowest rungs of the bureaucracy," wrote Ajit Ranade. Young people spend years appearing for selection examinations for government jobs. In September 2024, 6,000 post-graduates, nearly 40,000 graduates and 120,000 candidates who studied up to Class 12, applied for the post of sweepers "to clean offices in Haryana govt departments, boards, corporations and civic bodies." TOI. The educated protesters rightly blame the government for a jobless economy, leaks of exam question papers (wikipedia) and election fraud. They want a change for a better future. The police understand the regime wants all protests to be crushed, never mind the cost, and will punish anyone seen to be soft on the protesters. Both are fighting for their lives. The regime is destroying both.    

We should offer the fig leaf.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026-27 by 60 basis points (bps) to 7%, citing resilient domestic demand and robust services activity." "In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also raised its growth projection for FY28 by 30 bps to 7%." BS. India has signed trade agreements with at least 14 countries, known as PTA, CECA, CEPA and CECPA, which are probably not fully free, and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Thailand. wikipedia. A BTA, or Bilateral Trade Agreement, with the US is frozen. "US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he did not think there was 'something imminent' on the trade deal with India and the two sides have identified 'the universe of items' that are sticking points." ET. Agreeing with Green, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the India-US trade deal talks have hit a plateau, beyond which giving or taking might be 'very,very' difficult." TIE. Trade talks "in the past months have met with complications, most recently a new US law that paves the way for up to 100% tariffs on Indian goods because of New Delhi's purchase of Russia oil." "A deal has also been held back because Washington is yet to complete a Section 301 trade investigation on several nations over alleged excess industrial capacity." Reuters. However, the picture changes fast where US President Donald Trump is involved. "Trump is facing a growing backlash over plans to import diesel from Russia as the Iran war continues to impact global energy prices." "As well as the initial release of 300,000 tonnes of diesel, Trump said Russia would then supply 500,000 tonnes in November and one million more after that." BBC. In an effort to surpass the US economy, "Beijing has been over investing for years, but lately, it has been dumping the excess output it can't sell at home. In the past, export volumes rose with prices; this decade, Beijing has dropped export prices nearly 20%, producing a 40% surge in volume." Combined with weaker imports, China's trade surplus jumped 20% last year to a record $1.2 trillion, wrote Ruchir Sharma. Unfortunately, "The US will remain reliant on China for its rare earths well into the 2030s even as it builds its own mining and processing facilities." "While US output of the two most-commonly used rare earths has more than tripled since Trump returned to office last year, the country can meet only 42% of its demand and within five years will still rely on imports for nearly a quarter of its demand." Reuters. India does not have a rare earth industry nor the efficient productivity to triple production within one year to entice the US. Also, "Events including a US military attack on a ship off Oman that killed three Indian seafarers and India rejecting Trump's repeated claim of brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan have hurt relations." Trump is referring to Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025, in which India attacked Pakistan  (wikipedia) in retaliation for the terrorist attack at Pahalgam in Kahsmir on 22 April 2025 in which 26 unarmed civilians were gunned down (wikipedia). In August, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said "India downed five fighter aircraft of Pakistan during Operation Sindoor." newsonair.gov.in. No mention of India's losses. This lack of honesty allows Trump to fill the void with his claims. The trouble is that India does not obey rules. "Licensed categories like aviation are rife with policy puzzles. Asset shifts have been wrapped in riddles in fields like e-commerce and infrastructure." "In recent years, though, India has had a boom in outgoing investments, with both foreign and domestic industrial houses investing abroad." Mint. It will be suicide for Republicans if Trump buys diesel from Russia. India should offer to buy crude from Russia, refine it to diesel and supply the US. We get the crude, Putin gets his cash, Trump gets his diesel and the fig leaf stays in position. Comparing sizes of the leaves will not be allowed. We don't take questions.  

It's not food.

"India's retail inflation quickened to 5.54% in September 2026 from 4.83% in August, driven by a sharp rise in food prices, particularly vegetables, according to government data." "The central bank also raised its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% earlier, citing higher crude oil prices, elevated food costs and the impact of weaker rupee on imported inflation." ET. Emphasis on food prices is a regular cop-out for doing nothing because food prices are supply dependent and monetary policy cannot increase supplies. The big secret is that the government is actively creating shortages of sugar and grains by diverting them for ethanol production to reduce import of crude oil. "Between 2019-20 and 2025-26, ethanol supplied to oil marketing companies grew at approximately 38% annually, while maize production grew at 11.4%, sugarcane at 5.1% and rice at 4.4%." Maize is essential for the poultry industry and diversion of maize to ethanol production is raising prices of eggs and chicken. "The same applies to livestock and diary producers." "The starch and food-processing industries face a similar problem." Indic Collective. As more land is diverted to sugar and maize production there is less for growing vegetables. The precipitous fall of the rupee from 62.33 to one dollar in 2014 (bankbazaar.com) to 96.795 to one dollar on 08 October (in.investing.com), makes imports that much more expensive. In a belated effort to be seen to be doing something the RBI raised the cost of borrowing by a token 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50% last week. TOI. Just as the RBI has failed to control inflation it has failed to control the cost of borrowing for the government. "Indian government bonds tumbled yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year yield posting the biggest one-day rise in over six months," as the "6.94% 2036 bond yield surged nearly 9 bps to 7.3857%, a three-year peak." ET. Clearly, the bond market has no faith in the RBI's ability to control inflation in the medium term. To support the rupee the RBI announced a dollar swap which drew in a total of $136.4 billion, of which FCNR(B) deposits at very high rates of tax-free interest contributed $127.2 billion. Mint. However, the rupee was at 95.11 to one dollar on 31 August, the closing day of the scheme, but continued falling to over 96 to the dollar. mumbaiport.gov.in. Foreign Exchange reserves fell from $785.71 billion on 4 September to $734.6 billion on 2 October, suggesting the RBI had spent about $50 billion on buying rupees to support the currency. BT. When that did not work, the RBI "announced a series of measures to ease pressure on the rupee, tightening rules for foreign exchange derivatives, restricted forward hedging of the currency and mandated that "authorised dealers will have to maintain a cash reserve with the RBI equal to 20% of the rupee equivalent of the notional amount of each eligible transaction." ET. The RBI "announced a special window to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs). NDTV. As the rupee appreciated to 95.755 on 12 October from 96.755 on 09 October, the RBI restricted the rupee non-deliverable forward window only for hedging. ET. The RBI probably wants to stop banks and companies buying dollars with the stronger rupee for use in the future. Large scale dollar buying will again weaken the rupee. "Prasanna Tantri, associate professor of finance at the Indian School of Business, has warned that India cannot sustain zero real interest rates for too long. He warned that the RBI's efforts to defend the rupee and keep interest rates artificially low through monetary easing risk fueling inflation and undermining financial stability." BT. The RBI failed to defy the 'Impossible Trinity' (wikipedia) and prefers to control the movement of currency while trying to keep the interest rate low and the rupee high. Will it succeed? Depends on foreign investors and the bond market. Stop blaming food. They are not buying it.      

Invent clever lies please.

 "An executive magistrate in Delhi yesterday ordered the release of CJP (Cockroach Janta Party) members Abhijeet Dipke, Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das after they furnished surety bonds of Rs 50,000 each, undertaking 'to maintain peace and good behavior' for one year." TOI. The magistrate has seen pictures completely opposite to what we have seen. "In scenes rarely witnessed aboard a commercial flight, the CJP's Dipke, Das and Ranka were detained from inside an aircraft shortly after landing in Delhi." "A Delhi Police team, notably comprising mostly women cops, entered the Air India flight from Mumbai within minutes of touchdown and detained the trio as co-passengers looked on and shot videos." India Today. Apparently, their crime was that they intended to protest peacefully against election fraud. On 17 May, "MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) Secretary (West) Sibi George strongly defended India's democratic system, diversity and minority rights during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Netherlands." ddnews.gov.in. Since Mr Modi did not deny this bold assertion, we can assume this is official. "In India, fundamental rights are considered an essential part of the basic structure of the constitution, which in any case cannot be violated." And, "The right to a peaceful assembly without arms is a fundamental right under Article 19(1)(b) of the Constitution." iPleaders. On cue, "Acting on directions from the Delhi High Court, Delhi Police issued notices to leaders of the CJP,"  involving "allegations of a woman's photographs being doctored into objectionable images, which were circulated online." ET. That might explain the posse of female police officers to arrest the three leaders from the airplane. If any one of the men sneezed or coughed loudly a uniform could burst open and an extremely serious case of 'Outrage of Female Modesty' under Section 354 (LawyersclubIndia) could result. On 10 October, "Delhi Police has deployed more than 35,000 police and paramilitary personnel, set up six designated detention centers and prepared surveillance measures involving body cameras, facial recognition systems, CCTV cameras and drones." The internet was shut down around central Delhi and 45 Metro stations were closed. ET. All incoming mail and express trains arriving in New Delhi and Nizamuddin Stations between 4 am and 2 pm were cancelled. HT. The center of Delhi around Connaught Place and Jantar Mantar was completely sealed off and "By 9 pm, over 67,000 protesters had been detained across Delhi." HT. Traders estimated a loss of up to Rs 20 billion due to the closure of markets in and around Connaught Place. ET. What right has the government to convert our capital city into an internment camp disrupting the life of tax paying citizens of Delhi? "The UN human rights office has expressed concern over mass detentions during large scale protests, urging Indian authorities uphold the right to peaceful assembly and immediately release anyone arbitrarily detained." TNIE. To that, "In a statement, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal described the OHCHR's remarks as unwarranted and an unacceptable interference in country's internal affairs. Mr Jaiswal said that violent responses to protests in India's neighborhood,...had gone unremarked." newsonair.gov.in. Mass arrests, shutting down our right to travel and converting the whole city into an open air prison is not "internal affairs". We call it an infernal affront. Did he just admit that India has become a Pakistan? "The spokesperson highlighted that India is the world's largest democracy, where the right to peaceful assembly is guaranteed by the Constitution and safeguarded by robust institutions, an independent judiciary and a free media." Journalists and media personnel were arrested, and even assaulted, despite showing their IDs and cameras. TOI. There goes the "free media". "Judges of Supreme Court and high courts are, in effect, being appointed directly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi rather than the collegium, said former judge of Madras High Court K Chandru." TOI. So much for robust institutions. We do not object to lying to the world. What we object to is the lies are so barefaced and so obviously silly that it makes a laughing stock of India and Indians. Get someone to invent clever lies. Don't make us look stupid.