Sunday, November 08, 2026
Need insignia on epaulettes.
"The government could consider scrapping the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax without significantly compromising its fiscal consolidation targets, as the potential revenue loss may be limited to Rs 400-500 billion, according to a report by SBI Research." "The report has projected the fiscal deficit at 4.7% of GDP, against the government's budgeted target of 4.3%," which would mean an overshoot of about Rs 1.2 trillion and add 0.1-0.2% to the FY 2026-27 deficit. TN. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) "has recommended that the government scrap long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax for foreign equity investors," and "has also proposed tax relief for Indian domestic mutual funds investors, suggesting they be exempt from LTCG if they are selling existing holdings to invest in new ones." Reuters. Investors currently pay 12.5% on securities held for more than a year, 20% on short capital gains (STCG), Securities Transaction Tax (STT) and a withholding tax on dividends, among the highest in the world. "Individual investors lost Rs 916,85 billion in equity derivatives in 2025-26, while their STT bill rose 35% to Rs 66.45 billion. STT accounted for 27% of their transactions costs, up from 13% in 2021-22," wrote S Sridharan & A Raghavendra M. Indians are probably the only people in the world who pay tax on losses. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have net sold nearly $64 billion worth of Indian equities over the past 25 months," but "experts caution that changes to the LTCG tax regime alone may not be enough to reverse foreign outflows. Earnings growth, valuations, crude oil prices and currency stability will remain the bigger determinant of foreign investor sentiment." Fortune India. "LTCG tax revenue yielded Rs 1.29 trillion in 2024-25, up from Rs 722.49 billion in the previous year." LTCG tax is a direct tax similar to salaries, profits and interest, and so "Income from rising share prices should contribute to public revenue too," wrote Ajit Ranade. The government needs to increase its revenues because, "Interest payments account for 26% of the total expenditure, and 40% of revenue receipts." "Revenue deficit in 2026-27 is targeted at I.5% of GDP," while "Fiscal deficit in 2026-27 is targeted at 4.3% of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4% of GDP in 2025-26." PRS. When interest payment is so high the only way to keep borrowing in check is to increase revenue. Several important states, including Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are to hold assembly elections in 2027 (wikipedia) and freebies may be necessary to buy votes, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi did in Bihar in 2025 when he announced the transfer of "Rs 10,000 each to the bank accounts of 7.5 million women across the state, totaling Rs 75 billion (TOI)." Some estimate of the PM's largesse will need to be guessed in the 2027 Budget to be presented on 1 February 2027 (ET). "Millions of Indians between the ages of 15 and 29 are either unemployed, forced into informal jobs or stuck in low paying informal jobs. India's demographic dividend is fast turning into a liability." That means fewer votes. "About 10 Indian states have already added a new category for resource transfers: educated unemployed youth. This is in addition to unconditional cash transfers (UCT) to women and farmers, which have become a generalized trend." "It seems unlikely that India's restless youth will quietly accept their lot as a fait accompli, settle for UCTs rather than jobs that provide opportunities for life improvement, forsake protests or demonstrations, and still vote for the same political party," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Elections need freebies, which will increase government debt and interest outgo. That may adversely affect credit rating. LTCG tax and STT are big revenue earners, but may encourage a flight of foreign investors, which is a drain on dollars and devalues the rupee. The RBI is supporting the rupee by selling dollars borrowed at high interest rates. Repaying the debt may increase the deficit, forcing more borrowing. Any credit downgrade will be used by the opposition to lampoon the government and may result in loss of power. Problems! Problems! Much easier to dress up in a camouflage suit with a CRPF emblem on the hat on Diwali day (pmindia.gov.in). Strangely there is no brass insignia on the shoulder epaulettes. Asim Munir struts around with Field Marshall on his shoulders. wikipedia. How dare he? Who won Operation Sindoor (pib.gov.in)? Clue: not that Don. Anything higher than Field Marshall?
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