Saturday, November 22, 2025

We are Indians.

"India's strong domestic economy and a smaller-than-expected hit to exports are giving New Delhi more room to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, which has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on imports from the country, Indian sources and analysts said." "domestic tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items since September are boosting local demand and helping exporters stay competitive." Reuters. That may be because India's trade is so small and it persistently runs a trade deficit because it exports so little. In fiscal 2024-25, our merchandise exports were $437.42 billion and services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Total imports were $915.19 billion for a trade deficit of -$94.26 billion. pib.gov.in. In contrast, in 2023, China's total exports were $3.380 trillion, total imports were $2.557 trillion, leading to a positive trade balance of $823 billion. WITS. China's trade surplus was higher than our total exports. As an example of how weak our trade is, India's goods exports to China during April-October increased by 24.7% to just $10.03 billion while we imported goods worth $73.99 billion for a deficit of $64 billion. ET. Cannot get rich by giving money away. Not surprising, "The Indian rupee hit a fresh lifetime low of 89.61 against the dollar on Friday (21 Nov), pressured by US sanctions imposed on certain Indian firms linked to the Iranian oil deal." "The currency breached its previous record low of 88.80, which it had touched in late September." ET. "On average, the rupee falls about 2-3% against the dollar annually; in crisis years, the depreciation is much higher." "Between 5 November 2024, when Donald Trump was re-elected as the US president, and 21 October 2025, the rupee has lost over 4% against the dollar." But "The Indian economy is in decent health, with no obvious trigger for a sharp depreciation." Mint. If the Indian economy is resilient and in "decent health" why is our currency falling? It's not as if the US economy is going gangbusters, with high inflation, an uncertain job market and a Fox News poll showing 76% of Americans are pessimistic about the economy. CNN. In June the RBI cut its policy rate by 50 basis points for a total reduction of 100 basis points in 2025, "signaling the central bank's strong intent to stimulate credit demand and revive economic activity by lowering costs." HT. Totally unnecessary because, "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY2024-25." pib.gov.in. Why was the RBI trying to revive the economy which was already racing ahead at lightning speed. Does not seemed to have lowered the borrowing cost for the government. "Indian government bond slumped to a three-week low...after the rupee hit a fresh low," as "The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.5665%, its highest since October 31." ET. Seems that the bond market is adding a premium of over 100 basis points over the RBI's lending rate in lending to the Indian government. Showing a lack of trust. Our economy is growing faster than that of the US but the rupee is weakening against the dollar. Americans are pessimistic but we are resilient. May be because we are Indians. We are like that only.   

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