Friday, November 21, 2025
Rocky stocks.
"Following its worst underperformance versus emerging markets since 1994, the Indian stock market is now getting back on its foot with Sensex and Nifty being near all-time peaks after a long gap of 14 months. In this month alone, at least 3 global brokerages Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and HSBC have released a barrage of bullish reports, projecting Sensex levels as high as 107,000 by December 2026." Because, "Both fiscal and monetary authorities have turned decisively pro-growth," with domestic investors pouring money into equities. ET. However, "As foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 1.02 trillion in the September quarter," "Financial services firms, especially non-banking finance companies, saw the biggest churn with foreign managers cutting their stakes in several mid- and small-sized lenders." ET. The market for initial public offerings (IPO) is booming. "Between 1 October 2024 to 24 October 2025 a record 288 companies filed draft prospectuses with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), in an attempt to raise approximately Rs 4.18 trillion." Of these, 111 IPOs went public, raising an all-time high of Rs 2.18 trillion. TOI. But, this is not the end. "India's primary market is preparing for one of its biggest years, with Equirus Capital projecting IPO fundraising of nearly Rs 1.77 trillion in 2026." ET. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma, Founder of GQuant Investech, labeled India's IPO market as the"dumbest in the history of IPO markets", driven by "dumb money" from retail investors. NDTV. "The most peculiar part of the current drama is the casual acceptance that a company can list its shares at a price that would make its promoters blush and then lose a quarter of its market value within months." "Of course, the sellers, especially the promoters and private investors, have already walked out of the room by then. They have booked their profits, offered polite smiles to cameras and made their exit," wrote Srinath Sridharan. But, where is the flood of money coming from? A survey by SEBI found that 53% of respondents are "aware of at least one securities market product, with urban areas registering a 74% rate, compared to 56% in rural areas." However, "Only 6.7% of the population actually invests in a mutual fund and 5.3% in equities." Mint. A note from CLSA Securities in August 2025 showed that "household financial assets declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2-23-24. During this period, the share of household investment in equity and investment funds jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%." According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), low interest rates on bank deposits are pushing households into riskier assets in an attempt to increase returns. "Any adverse events or contagion in markets could potentially spell disaster for household finances." The RBI is unconcerned, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Shouldn't the RBI and SEBI warn investors against speculating in the markets? The World Bank "starkly describes the control that the finance ministry wields over RBI and other regulatory agencies, "wrote Singhal. And, Shankar Sharma "warned that India's growing reliance on stock market taxes to fund capital expenditures risks leaving the economy vulnerable." ET. Are Indians being forced into investing in stocks? What happens if the bubble pops? Will millions of households become bankrupt? Indian households hold 28,000 tonnes of gold (Ajay Bagga). Gold prices would collapse if they sell. The RBI holds 888 tonnes of gold in reserve. BS. Its reserves will shrink. Perhaps it would be easier to care for citizens.
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