The rupee doesn't know.

"India's rupee has barely budged over the past three weeks," as "The currency has been stuck in a narrow range, struggling to break past the 89-per-dollar mark after hitting fresh lows." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has built up short dollar positions of at least $15 billion in the non-deliverable forwards market over the past two to three weeks to defend the rupee, Bloomberg News reported." ET. "India's external debt stood at USD 747.2 billion at the end of June 2025," with long term debt (original maturity of above one year) of $611.7 billion, the RBI said. NDTV. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $699.96 billion as on October 3, data released by the RBI showed." BS. Even though our reserves are less than our debt, the good thing is that the major portion of our debt is long term. However, RBI's definition of 'long term' as 'original maturity over one year' seems a little odd. "In the fixed-income market, bonds that have a maturity period of 2-10 years are considered to be medium-term bonds." Investopedia. One year maturity would be considered short term. Also, 2-11 months may have elapsed from the 'original maturity of one year' on some of the debt, which would make that part of the debt short term. Should we be worried at the addition of another $15 billion? In addition, "Companies may raise up to $1 billion or 300% of their net worth (whichever is higher), while financial sector firms regulated by RBI, Sebi, Irdai or PFRDA face no cap." TOI. All our regulators are controlled by the government, which means people linked to politicians or civil servants may register companies to be able to borrow any amount in foreign currency. Also, "Tucked in the new plan to liberalise the foreign loan regime is a move that every RBI governor in the past had resisted for the past 30 years. It deals with opening the gates to external commercial borrowings (ECB) in real-estate - an idea that the central bank had repeatedly scotched after the '97 Asia Crisis that had stemmed from foreign currency debts in properties." ET. All loans will have to be paid back with interest, so how will the RBI finance the foreign exchange outflow? From new loans? Sounds suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme  (wikipedia). "For Indian investors, this could be a reminder that keeping one's entire wealth in rupee-denominated assets could expose portfolios to risk that is often underestimated - currency depreciation." "A global allocation protects against rupee weakness," wrote Arihant Bardia. But how? Capital account convertibility, which is the ability to freely convert the rupee into any foreign currency and back, is forbidden in India. CNBC. However, rich people can invest through funds or offices in foreign countries. Ordinary people cannot. So, they buy gold. "India's merchandise trade deficit is expected to have widened to USD 28.0 billion in September 2025," "driven primarily by a sharp rise in gold imports, which nearly doubled month-on-month despite record-high prices." ET. Why are we borrowing to support the rupee? Are these the "Achhe Din (good days)" we were promised (wikipedia)? The rupee doesn't seem to know.