Sunday, October 05, 2025
Growth, at any cost.
"Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...highlighted India's growing economic resilience and said that the nation is well-equipped to absorb external shocks, amid ongoing external trade tensions." We have to reach 8% GDP growth, she said. TOI. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Sanjay Malhotra said that "India can sustain a growth rate of 7-8% over a longer period." Though "fiscally every country is stressed and lower global growth is risk for all economies," "India's macroeconomic fundamentals have continued to remain very strong, and the country has become an anchor of stability in a volatile world." ET. If the economy is doing so good why was it necessary for the government to raise the basic exemption limit for income tax on salaried workers to Rs 1.275 million in the 2025 Union Budget (pib.gov.in) as well as the "Sweeping rate reductions in the goods and services tax (GST) came into effect on 22 September" (Indira Rajaraman). Not just the government, the RBI is also doing its best to stimulate growth. On 2 October, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI left its policy rate at 5.5% but reduced restrictions on banks' lending to companies. Mint. Although the US Federal Reserve reduced its Funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% in September (BBC) the RBI is hesitant to reduce the spread between the US and Indian interest rates to protect the rupee which fell to its lowest level of 88.80 against the US dollar on 30 September (Reuters). By reducing lending restrictions on banks the RBI is nudging banks to reduce their interest on loans. "Since February, the RBI has lowered the repo rate by 100 basis points and is in the process of cutting the CRR (in phases) by 100 basis points. In response, not only have bond yields risen - from 6.4% on 25 August to 6.59% on 1 October - commercial banks, the main transmission channel, have also not reduced their rates commensurately," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. Yield on the benchmark 10-year GOI bonds is at 6.505% this morning. investing.com. If the government, which has the power to print money, is having to borrow at 100 basis points higher than the RBI interest rate, private companies will have to pay much higher interest on their borrowing. Since Indian banks are reluctant to lend, the RBI has increased limits to foreign currency borrowing. "Companies may raise up to $1 billion or 300% of their net worth (whichever is higher), while financial sector firms regulated by RBI (bank regulator), Sebi (stock market regulator), Irdai (insurance industry regulator) or PFRDA (pension fund regulator) (wikipedia) face no cap." TOI. In addition, "Tucked in the new plan to liberalise the foreign loan regime," is a scheme that "deals with opening the gates to external commercial borrowings (ECB) in real estate - an idea that the central bank had repeatedly scotched after the '97 Asian Crisis that had stemmed from foreign currency debts in properties." ET. If the rupee were to fall significantly many companies will default on their loans and may even go bankrupt. These are desperate, even suicidal, measures. Why, if the "macroeconomic fundamentals have continued to remain strong", as the RBI Governor claimed? Seems that the government is prepared to take any risk to shore up economic growth. Including, sacrificing the nation. Why?
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