Thursday, October 09, 2025

Enjoying the frenzy.

"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has hailed India as a 'key growth engine' of the global economy." "India has also downplayed the impact of 50% tariffs imposed by the United States. Last week Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Indian economy continued to demonstrate resilience and sustainable growth, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment." TOI. As a result, "India's general government debt is expected to moderate steadily over the next decade, declining from the current 81% of GDP to about 77% by FY31 and further to 71% by FY35, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings." ET. "India may lack advanced technology, critical natural resources and perfect governance." But since 1980, "the country has averaged a real GDP growth rate of 6.3% per annum." Which means double digit nominal growth. So, "For global investors seeking long-term returns...a GDP-weighted allocation to India - around 5% - is both rational and rewarding," wrote Arvind Chari. However, "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have offloaded nearly Rs 2 trillion worth of equities this year, the highest ever outflow, weighing on both stocks and the rupee." "Despite this, the Nifty is up 5.3% in rupee terms, but only 1.4% in dollar terms." TOI. Even though, "According to the SEBI Investor Survey 2025, while 63% of Indian households - around 213 million - are aware of at least one securities market product, only 9.5% are actually participating. That's just over 32 million households with any real stake in mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, or bonds." BT. But, "The wall of liquidity engendered by Indian retail investors lets FPIs (and to be fair, even Indian promoters) exit profitable-but-richly-valued Indian positions and rotate funds into other avenues with better price-value equations." "Indian equities trade at price-earnings multiples that are among the highest in the world, at par with US equities (with the Nifty index trading at about 20-21 times annual earnings)," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Indian citizens are transferring their wealth to foreigners. A lackluster secondary market has pushed retail Indian investors to initial public offerings (IPOs). "Some 79 companies raked in $11.5bn in the first nine months of 2025, while a string of other issues in the final three months of the year is expected to bring in another $10-11bn," wrote Nikhil Inamdar. "The frenzy is fun, says Mr Vivek Kaul, and a game of perceptions and hype, but 'not for turning a modest investment into lasting financial security'." Two successful IPOs provide a picture of our job market, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Urban Company "offers cleaning and pest control, handyman support, appliance repair, and beauty and grooming," while Physicswallah gives lessons to 16-17 year-old high school students "cramming for engineering and medical school exams" on YouTube. "At the current labor force participation rate of 60%, the number of jobseekers would go up by 1.3% each year, while the current GDP growth of 6.5% can only absorb a 1% increase." "Only an extraordinary 12%-plus GDP expansion would clear the backlog over 10 years, says Chetan Ahya." That explains why only 9.5% of households are betting against FPIs. They have guts.      

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