Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Can anyone do a Soros?
"US President Donald Trump yesterday announced that 'friend' India will be paying a 25% tariff from August 1. He also noted that New Delhi will have to pay additional penalty due to its oil and military purchase from Russia in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine." HT. "If this tariff is sustained, this move may directly affect key sectors such as marine products, pharmaceuticals, textiles, leather and automobiles," said Agneshwar Sen and "may shave off 20 basis points from India's GDP growth if the tariff rate stays at that level," according to Garima Kapoor. TOI. "India's faltering equities market faces the risk of more losses," as "foreign investors have accelerated their withdrawals, turning attention to cheaper or more attractive markets like Hong Kong and South Korea. The value of India's stock market is down $248 billion since reaching a record on July 2." ET. The Indian rupee (INR) fell to 87.663 against the US dollar (USD) yesterday. It had fallen to 87.789 on 7 February but hardened to 84.220 on 5 May. exchangerates.org.uk. "India's forex reserves dipped by $3.06 bn to $696.67 billion for the week ending 11 July, data by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." ET. Forex reserves "rose to $702.8 billion as of June 27," and "At the same time, RBI's short-dollar position in the forward market, which had risen to $88.7 billion in February, declined to $65.2 billion in May. Substantial short positions in the forward dollar book offset some of the cushion offered by headline FX reserves, since they imply future commitments that could drain the reserves." Reuters. "According to recent data, the RBI's gold holdings remain stable at 880 metric tonnes from end-March through end-May this year." That may be because, "Price projections from Citi, a Fitch Research division, Motilal Oswal Securities and ICICI Bank suggest a decline from $3,445 per troy ounce." TOI. "From dismantling its protectionist 'inspector raj,' to cutting duties on Tesla Inc cars, and treating Amazon.com Inc and Walmart Inc on a par with domestic retailers, India is under pressure on many fronts on its trade talks with the US." But India must not compromise on ethanol produced from maize (corn), to broken rice, rotten potatoes, sugarcane and molasses, for mixing with automobile fuel because that would hurt income for our farmers, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Next month's talks would probably be the 50th round of negotiations with the US," because the US is focusing on a single overall tariff figure. "For Britain it was 10%, the EU and Japan settled at 15%, Indonesia at 19% and Vietnam was about 20%-plus. So, this is the 'Trump deal' within the deal. It's unprecedented and, until now, not even properly documented as a model," wrote Pranab Dhal Samanta. "The economy has the look and feel of 'steady as she goes' as far as FY26 is concerned, the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June said, even though it pointed out downside risks." ET. In September 1992, George Soros made a profit of $1 billion by short selling the pound forcing the UK government to withdraw the sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. wikipedia. Can the Indian rupee also be shorted, even though it is not fully convertible? Can anyone do a Soros on the rupee? Despite the RBI.
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