Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Growing gangbusters.

"India's gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection for the month of June stood at Rs 1.85 trillion, marking a 6.2% increase compared to the same month last year, government data showed." It was a record Rs 2.37 trillion in April, followed by Rs 2.01 trillion in May. ET."Government data...revealed that gross GST collections reached a record high of Rs 22.08 trillion in 2024-25 fiscal year, showing a remarkable increase from Rs 11.37 trillion in FY21, effectively doubling in five years." The number of registered taxpayers has increased from 6.5 million in 2017 to more than 15.1 million over eight years. TOI. Since GST is a tax on consumption, for the government it means that people are spending more, so they must be earning more, which means that the economy is growing gangbusters. For the people it means paying more for what they buy, partly because of the compounding effect of high inflation (Rate Inflation), which means less money for non-essential expenditure, such as buying a new vehicle or eating out. The government is jubilant that "India's private consumption has shown strong growth" as its share in "nominal GDP increased from 60.2% in FY24 to 61.4% in FY25. ET. But, are people spending more because they are earning more, or is the share of private expenditure higher because the share of government spending has fallen? "India's automotive sector grappled with a significant demand slump in June 2025, as Maruti Suzuki, the country's number one car maker, reported a 13% drop in domestic passenger vehicle dispatches, totaling 1,18,906 units compared to 1,37,160 units in June 2024. This downturn reflects broader challenges in the passenger vehicle market, particularly in the entry-level segment." FE. "Outstanding personal loans by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as a share of PFCE (Private Final Consumption Expenditure) have almost doubled from 15.6% in 2013-14 to 29.6% in 2024-25." Which means that a larger part of private spending and of GDP is being financed by personal loans. It also means that people are saving less, wrote Roshan Kishore. In the year 2000, "household savings accounted for 84% of the total savings in the economy, but this share has now dropped to just 61% in FY23." "At the same time, financial liabilities have risen sharply from 2% to 5.8% of GDP over the same period." ET. "Household debt in India has soared to 42% of GDP in Q1 FY25, the highest ever, up from 35% before the pandemic. Non-housing loans, including credit cards, personal loans, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) schemes, now account for a staggering 32.3% of GDP." BT. "India's richest 1% now hold more wealth than the country's entire colonial elite ever did - a staggering 40.1% - while the bottom half of the population clings to just 6.4%, according to research analyst Hardik Joshi." BT. On the other side, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said over 950 million Indians are now covered under at least one social security scheme, citing a recent report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO)." TOI. People are borrowing more and saving less. More than 60% deserving handouts is not something to boast about. It means people are poor. The government is part of the 1%.

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